Georgia's South Ossetia Conflict - Political Commentary

[Stan]

Hey Carl !
Sorry, I think your email to me got zapped by our server.

I think much depends upon the proficiency of the Russian armed forces as of this moment. If they are as inept as they were when they first went into Chechnya, things could get very complicated for Vlad.

I agree with you and would add that although mathematically Russia outnumbers Georgia in both manpower and equipment, Georgia has been receiving training and equipment from NATO for the last 10 years. And, nobody better than Russia can related to fighting a small unit mired in the mountains.

The Russian press is content to report that Georgia's military capabilities and training have changed little, while Baltic/NATO studies and this Deutsche Welle article would indicate otherwise.

Today, roughly one-quarter of Georgia's functional land forces are US-trained. The backbone of the Georgian army is seven infantry battalions raised from scratch and brought by the US Green Berets from boot camp to something quite close to NATO-standard combat readiness over the years, a mass of some 5,000 men.

This Telegraph article sums up Russia's Peacekeeping proficiency nicely:

The Russians lack of enough force to deploy decisively from the outset has forced them to over-rely on artillery...

The problem the Russians face in South Ossetia is that their peacekeepers have had to make the transition overnight to what is, in effect, a war-fighting force.

Regards, Stan