Georgia's South Ossetia Conflict - Political Commentary

[Norfolk]

Concur.

From my admittedly limited open source views, I find the operation to be on about a par with the US mission to Grenada, coupled with the ability to have done the kind of extended train up that the US had prior to DS. I do not find the outcome to be too impressive. I do note that they did a real good job of knowing what the key nodes were and how to set themselves up to be able to respond to counter measures AKA Terrain IPB). IOW the OPPLAN seemed well done and the execution was what one might expect of a unit that was basicaly doing an end of training cycle FTX. To draw the conclusion that the Russian military is really a world class power is a little beyond the premises' strength I think.

The Georgia-Grenada comparison has been put out in quite a few places lately, and it seems to be an accurate enough one. Still, it seems strange to compare the Mexican standoff between Cuban construction workers and the Rangers and the 82nd at Point Salines airfield to the Russian occupation of much of Georgia. At least the US disposed of the matter in only 3 days; the Russians are, for the moment at least, still stuck outside Tblisi. Though certainly no one is laughing.

One of the things that has really struck me when viewing pictures and videos of Russian troops has been the great preponderance of Motorised Infantry; not surprisingly given that it was elements of a MRD that hit the Georgians in South Ossetia. But Georgian claims that they took out 40 Russian tanks (out of a reported total of some 90, with 150 APCs/IFVs) mostly north of T-town don't seem implausible, even if the Georgians still cracked in the end. Now, whether that count is more or less accurate, and whether or not the "tanks" really were tanks and not a combination of all manner of AFVs, it still seems likely that the Russians took a bit of a beating themselves in the early stages.

Even if the Russians do mostly withdraw, it seems unlikely that they'll settle for anything less than seeking to install a client-government, at least, in the long run in Georgia. It seems difficult to imagine Georgia being able to successfully resist such pressure over the long haul.

[wm]

The Georgia-Grenada comparison has been put out in quite a few places lately, and it seems to be an accurate enough one. Still, it seems strange to compare the Mexican standoff between Cuban construction workers and the Rangers and the 82nd at Point Salines airfield to the Russian occupation of much of Georgia. At least the US disposed of the matter in only 3 days; the Russians are, for the moment at least, still stuck outside Tblisi. Though certainly no one is laughing.

I'd like to see some links to the other sources making the Grenada comparison if possible.

You've sort of made my point in your next few sentences. It took the the 82d's DRB and the 22d MAU/MEU about 3 days to disarm a bunch of Cuban construction workers on a 132 Sq. mi. island. It took less than a division-sized force of the Russian Army about the same time to slash through a breakaway province of 1500 sq. mi.
I recognize differences in the force composition (light infantry/airborne vs mech infantry/armor) and the terrain of the two AO(an island versus versus a single mountain road through a tunnel) but I see the point of the two ops as being rather similar--a need to squirt a little testosterone after some period of feeling emasculated by other events in the world (Beirut Marine Barracks bombing for the US and Bosnia, among other recent events, for Russia.)

BTW, some folks have commented on the proximity of the event to the Olympics. Anyone happen to note how many medals Russians are taking home from China? As of this AM, they have 53 (16 gold) to the US's 100 (30 gold)and China's 83 (46 gold). Is diversion of the world's attention from this poor showing part of the determinant for the operation's timimg?

[Ron Humphrey]

BTW, some folks have commented on the proximity of the event to the Olympics. Anyone happen to note how many medals Russians are taking home from China? As of this AM, they have 53 (16 gold) to the US's 100 (30 gold)and China's 83 (46 gold). Is diversion of the world's attention from this poor showing part of the determinant for the operation's timimg?

If we're back to going to war to decide disagreements / avoid embarrassment I guess The Romans Empire is already back.

[jmm99]

Russia to keep 500 troops in Georgia buffer zone
REUTERS
Reuters North American News Service
Aug 21, 2008 07:29 EST

SOCHI, Russia, Aug 21 (Reuters) - Russia intends to keep 500 troops in a security zone surrounding Georgia's breakaway South Ossetia region, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Thursday.

"Tomorrow, 8 checkpoints will be established in the security zone in which 500 peacekeepers will be deployed, no more than that," Lavrov told reporters. "Other peacekeepers will be moved to South Ossetia, while other troops will be moved to Russia."

Lavrov did not specify how many troops Russia planned to keep in South Ossetia.

"I want to state this clearly and unequivocally that Russia is carrying out in full the six principles agreed between Medvedev and Sarkozy," he said. .....

http://wiredispatch.com/news/?id=308583

And, from the other side of the issue.

Saakashvili says West must make Russia quit Georgia
REUTERS
Reuters North American News Service
Aug 21, 2008 15:37 EST

PARIS, Aug 21 (Reuters) - The European Union and the United States should act to make Russian forces leave Georgia and stop further expansionism, Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili told a French newspaper on Thursday.
....
Saakashvili criticised the French-brokered ceasefire as "ambiguous and unclear" and said it left the Russians the room to do as they wanted on the ground.

"The result is that we now have to depend on the goodwill of Russia. The only forces on the ground are Russian. All we can do is make declarations," he said.....

http://wiredispatch.com/news/?id=309399

Hope is not a strategy. S's bottom line assessment is realistic given the totality of circumstances.

PS: "Hope" comment is not directed vs. Ron's discussion above. It is generally a comment on S's request to West, etc.

[Norfolk]

I'd like to see some links to the other sources making the Grenada comparison if possible.

You've sort of made my point in your next few sentences. It took the the 82d's DRB and the 22d MAU/MEU about 3 days to disarm a bunch of Cuban construction workers on a 132 Sq. mi. island. It took less than a division-sized force of the Russian Army about the same time to slash through a breakaway province of 1500 sq. mi.
I recognize differences in the force composition (light infantry/airborne vs mech infantry/armor) and the terrain of the two AO(an island versus versus a single mountain road through a tunnel) but I see the point of the two ops as being rather similar--a need to squirt a little testosterone after some period of feeling emasculated by other events in the world (Beirut Marine Barracks bombing for the US and Bosnia, among other recent events, for Russia.)

Here be, wm (I'll just add my disclaimer here that I don't recommend some of them, for obvious reasons):

http://atlanticreview.org/archives/1...n-Georgia.html

http://www.canada.com/saskatoonstarp...7-46d900ce3973

http://www.thewhig.com/ArticleDispla...%20WORTHINGTON

http://fabiusmaximus.wordpress.com/2.../16/georgia-5/

http://www.fff.org/blog/jghblog2008-08-13.asp

http://www.deanesmay.com/2008/08/10/...-on-our-minds/

Edited to Add:

No disagreement on your take, Wayne, especially in the Grenada-Georgia comparison.

Besides the traditional Russian penchant for brute force at the tactical level, the thing that stands out most about the Russian invasion is the also traditional Russian emphasis on the Operational level of war; wielding a sledgehammer at the tactical level, while playing a cello (or at least a respectable violin) at the operational level. The Russians still know how to wire and channel all that brute force into an effective campaign - even if the Georgian Government remains in place, at least for the time being.

[jmm99]

Russia Stages a Substantial Withdrawal
Georgian, Foreign Officials Dispute Assertion of Compliance With Cease-Fire
By Jonathan Finer
Washington Post Foreign Service
Saturday, August 23, 2008; A01
GORI, Georgia, Aug. 22 -- Russia pulled troops and armored vehicles out of vast swaths of seized territory and ended its 10-day occupation of this Georgian city Friday, but Georgian and foreign officials disputed Russia's claim that it had complied with the terms of a recent cease-fire agreement. .....

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...200580_pf.html

Georgia buffer checkpoints "permanent" - Russia
REUTERS
Reuters North American News Service
Aug 22, 2008 04:58 EST
MOSCOW, Aug 22 (Reuters) - Russian military checkpoints being built in the area adjacent to Georgia's breakaway region of South Ossetia will be permanent, a senior Russian military official said on Friday. .....

http://wiredispatch.com/news/?id=310168

US: Russia has not complied with Georgia ceasefire
Jeremy Pelofsky
Reuters North American News Service
Aug 22, 2008 15:21 EST
CRAWFORD, Texas (Reuters) - Russia has not pulled its troops out of Georgia, the United States said Friday, rejecting Moscow's declaration that it has fulfilled a pledge to withdraw under a French-brokered ceasefire agreement. ...

http://wiredispatch.com/news/?id=311017

Russia's first Georgia move legitimate: U.S. envoy
Reuters
August 22, 2008 at 6:33 AM EDT
MOSCOW — The U.S. ambassador to Moscow, in a rare U.S. comment endorsing Russia's initial moves in Georgia, described the Kremlin's first military response as legitimate after Russian troops came under attack. .....

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servl.../International

----------------------------------------
Some decent Turkish coverage

Zaman
Aug 23, 2008
US warship sails through straits, Russia suspicious
The guided missile destroyer USS McFaul passed through the Dardanelles and the Bosporus on Friday.
In a move likely to heat up tensions between the United States and Russia over a conflict in the troubled Caucasus, a US Navy warship sailed through the Turkish Straits yesterday to take relief supplies to Georgia. .....

http://www.todayszaman.com/tz-web/de...1006&bolum=102

Turkish Daily News
Turkey insists US did not seek authorization
Friday, August 22, 2008
ANKARA – Turkish Daily News
Turkey insists that the United States had not sought authorization for the passage of two U.S. military hospital ships “Mercy” and “Comfort” through the straits to dispatch humanitarian aid to war-hit Georgia. ...

http://www.turkishdailynews.com.tr/a...enewsid=113355

-----------------------------------------
Still would like a graphic (or full text) of the as-signed Russian-Georgian agreement, but here is the AP update....

Provisions of the Georgia-Russia truce agreement
By The Associated Press
Fri Aug 22, 3:46 PM ET
Provisions of the agreement reached between Georgia and Russia to end fighting in Georgia. Text is according to the Kremlin following the Aug. 13 announcement of the agreement. Below the text is explanation of Russian plans for a withdrawal and "additional security measures" allowed under point 5. .....

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080822/...a_truce_glance

[Stan]

Remember the 3 fat pigs -- Russian gas, electricity and rail ? Estonia's rail connections were also mysteriously "turned off" following a bout with the Motherland, but thankfully not mined with UXO

... a train carrying fuel has exploded after hitting a mine near Gori, Georgia's interior ministry said.

Interior ministry spokesman Shota Utiashvili said there had been several explosions near an abandoned Georgian military base where the Russian troops, on leaving Gori, had left a stockpile of munitions taken from the Georgian army.

[wm]

Remember the 3 fat pigs -- Russian gas, electricity and rail ? Estonia's rail connections were also mysteriously "turned off" following a bout with the Motherland, but thankfully not mined with UXO

Given that the USS McFaul had just made port at Poti, the western terminus for this rail line and the port for oil transshipment from that rail line, should we conclude that someone is trying to make a statement that merely gaining access to the port is not enough to guarantee the flow of oil?

[Stan]

Given that the USS McFaul had just made port at Poti, the western terminus for this rail line and the port for oil transshipment from that rail line, should we conclude that someone is trying to make a statement that merely gaining access to the port is not enough to guarantee the flow of oil?

Hey Wayne !
Oh Yeah, intrigue and espionage at sea... glad I joined the Army

From Mcfaul's site - Mission: To conduct prompt and sustained combat operations at sea in support of national interests

Is the the whole kit and caboodle just about oil and pipelines ? Could someone - theoretically speaking - turn off the pipes at the harbor

Jeez, talk about sand paperin' a tiger's Alpha