Georgia's South Ossetia Conflict - Political Commentary

[Rex Brynen]

Georgia's regular troops may be, they've definitely got their work cut out for them.

Not to mention Russia's ability to impose a complete air and naval blockade on Georgia (it has already partly done this).

For a variety of reasons--in order to respond to perceived NATO and US encroachment in their sphere of influence, to highlights the limits of US power in the area, in order to signal "don't mess with us" to the rest of the CIS states, to assert that they are a superpower not to be be trifled with, to show they still have real military power, and for domestic political reasons--the Russians have every incentive to make the Georgians very miserable indeed.

Again, perfectly predictable. Why it wasn't foreseen in Tbilisi will, I am sure, be a quite interesting story.

[wm]

Not to mention Russia's ability to impose a complete air and naval blockade on Georgia (it has already partly done this).

For a variety of reasons--in order to respond to perceived NATO and US encroachment in their sphere of influence, to highlights the limits of US power in the area, in order to signal "don't mess with us" to the rest of the CIS states, to assert that they are a superpower not to be be trifled with, to show they still have real military power, and for domestic political reasons--the Russians have every incentive to make the Georgians very miserable indeed.

Again, perfectly predictable. Why it wasn't foreseen in Tbilisi will, I am sure, be a quite interesting story.

Let's not forget that the US seems to be closer to freeing up a lot of troops in Iraq, troops that could be used as a deterrent to a future (say after next winter's thaws provide the next real opportunity to cross the Caucasus). Waiting to project power definitely did not seem to be in the Russians' best interest.

I would not be surprised that the Georgians took the first step to try to protect ethnic Georgians in the region, sort of a preemptive move because they knew/feared that, to borrow a movie title, "The Russians are coming, the Russians are coming". BTW, one ought not to expect the Georgians to conduct mil ops to block a counter-invasion. Since they do not recognize SO independence, they do not view their moves as an invasion . Instead, they may well see what they were doing as what any really good government does--protect its citizens from outlaws and banditry, with the SO separatists (supported by who knows what Russians and and other assorted Cossacks may decide to cross the border) being the outlaws and bandits in this case.

Of course, this may just be a case of Georgia playing "chicken," daring the Russians to match their rhetoric about supporting independence movements with action. I still am waiting to see who makes the final swerve because IMHO what has happened to date is not the final head-on collision that results when neither "driver" backs off.