In other words, it seems likely the Russians are going to attempt to conquer the whole of Georgia, and either re-absorb it or install a puppet government.Originally Posted by Darksaga
In other words, it seems likely the Russians are going to attempt to conquer the whole of Georgia, and either re-absorb it or install a puppet government.
He cloaked himself in a veil of impenetrable terminology.
The price would be too high and a Russia-friendly puppet government would not last long after a rise of nationalistic feelings as it always happens during an invasion.
The Georgian government will fall most likely anyway because of this apparent disaster. That's what Putin hopes for imho.
The danger here is that someoen has miscalculated.
Putin calculates that the West can't and won't intervene militarily.
We are calculating that Russia will pull back.
What if all of us are wrong????
Armageddon in the Caucasus?
No cut to the defense budget? We'll just have to wait and see. BTW, I'm not calculating that Russia will pull back or that the 'west' won't intervene. Everytime I think someone has done the dumbest thing in the world, someone comes along and tops it...
Don't you hate it when people don't play right? National interests can be such a drag.
Hey Carl !
Sorry, I think your email to me got zapped by our server.
I agree with you and would add that although mathematically Russia outnumbers Georgia in both manpower and equipment, Georgia has been receiving training and equipment from NATO for the last 10 years. And, nobody better than Russia can related to fighting a small unit mired in the mountains.
The Russian press is content to report that Georgia's military capabilities and training have changed little, while Baltic/NATO studies and this Deutsche Welle article would indicate otherwise.
This Telegraph article sums up Russia's Peacekeeping proficiency nicely:Today, roughly one-quarter of Georgia's functional land forces are US-trained. The backbone of the Georgian army is seven infantry battalions raised from scratch and brought by the US Green Berets from boot camp to something quite close to NATO-standard combat readiness over the years, a mass of some 5,000 men.
Regards, StanThe Russians lack of enough force to deploy decisively from the outset has forced them to over-rely on artillery...
The problem the Russians face in South Ossetia is that their peacekeepers have had to make the transition overnight to what is, in effect, a war-fighting force.
Last edited by Stan; 08-10-2008 at 06:52 AM. Reason: missing link to text
If you want to blend in, take the bus
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7552012.stmGeorgian troops have pulled back to positions at or south of those held on 6 August, when the current hostilities began, said Georgian Interior Ministry spokesman Shota Utiashvili.
If someone is interested in Soviet military maps of Georgian territory you can find those there.
http://www.topomaps.ru/caucasus/georgia.shtml
Too those who know..
It appears by following the mainstream press, that Georgia intiated the conflict with a heavy bombardment of a civilian city and the Russians responded. It is hard to be sympathetic to the Georgians based on this, but there seems to be some sympathy for them within the community. What am I missing?
Reed
reed11b asked:
The covering of conflict by Western and Russian media has been very poor. Biased. If we talk about the beginning of attack, I have seen only 1 scene that shows Grad shooting in the middle of darkness. Russian TV says that this is Georgian one. Maybe this is Russian one or Ossetian one? Should we call NSA?What am I missing?
Due to the cyber attack Georgian MFA is sprading their info via blog and not their official site.
http://georgiamfa.blogspot.com/
Never to miss printing an eye catching headline ...
here is the Times' crystal ball
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/new...cle4493620.eceFrom The Sunday Times
August 10, 2008
‘Bodies are lying everywhere. It’s hell’
Mark Franchetti, Moscow
.......
Why does South Ossetia want to break away?
Most of its people speak their own language and feel closer to the Russians than the Georgians. They say they were absorbed into Georgia after the fall of the old Soviet Union. The 70,000 South Ossetians want independence – just like Kosovo, the breakaway Serbian province.
Why are the Georgians so upset about South Ossetia?
Because they see it as a Russian outpost funded largely from Moscow, and where most people carry Russian passports.
Why has Georgia’s president chosen to raise the issue now?
Because he thought everyone was focused on the Olympics and the Russians would hesitate to respond with force.
Why has Russia been willing to go to war?
The Kremlin is angry about western, particularly American military support for Georgia, its desire to join Nato and US plans for a missile defence shield in Europe.
Will anyone else intervene?
Unlikely, western armies are busy and the prospect of taking on Russia is not enticing.
What happens next?
The Georgians will back down looking like the bad guys. Both sides will go back to hating each other. Result: Russia 1, Georgia 0.
Based on the CNN interview of Georgia's president (about an hour ago), the Times' end result may have some validity. He mentioned Czech 1968; I was thinking Hungary 1956 (when VOA & RFE made very sad listening).
PS:
I did (2 yrs), but 45 years ago. The month before 2nd year ended, our prof handed out a little Russian book (2nd grade reader), saying: "Now, for the rest of the course, you will learn how little Russian you know."from Wildcat
I knew I should have studied Russian in college...
Helps to transliterate the Cyrillic and read Fuch's useful map - beyond that, I'm hopeless.
Because this has been going on for some time, the Russians have been stirring the pot and IMO goading the Georgians into an action like this. The South Ossetians are armed, trained and sometime lead by Russian military (same as the Abkhazians) and lately, there have been cross-border incidents into Georgia. I think the Georgians had enough, but then badly miscalculated and thought they could settle things on the ground faster than the Russians could sort them out?
I am certain the Russians had plans for this months, if not years, in advance. There have been a steady stream of provocations over the last several months, that of course do not make the front page.
That's my take, and why I don't think it is a simple case of the Georgians being the bad guys.
He cloaked himself in a veil of impenetrable terminology.
Note to self: There are still American training advisors trapped in Georgia. I talked to a friend, yesterday, and he says they are receiving sporadic artillery at the training base where they're living.
No casualties for us, yet....
Main news from Russian "Pervy kanal" tonight showed 1 wounded US journalist in Tshinvali hospital (under control of Russians). He had entered the town with Georgian troops. Wiht him were 2 other journalists. 1 of them was from Russian Newsweek. Both are missing.
Week ago was published 1 interesting article in Russian Newsweek "The Kremlin controls the television "in manual mode" Copy-paste following headline to Google search window and use "translate this page" of firsti link.
Кремль управляет телеканалами "в ручном режиме"
What I can't help but wonder...
... is how the Georgians thought that a military escalation would work to their favour. I don't doubt their sense of grievance... just their common sense.
If that happens, say hello to the world's newest small war. The Georgians are well equipped and well trained (by us, coincidentally... anyone else happen to notice that they wear woodland MARPAT uniforms?). They won't just sit back and let themselves be absorbed by the Russians. They'll retaliate, and the Chechans may get involved as well. This will get very bloody, and I don't expect it to last just a few days. This could go on for months.
Maybe, or just keep the conflict hot enough to put the kibosh on Georgia (and the other candidate Ukraine) being voted into NATO membership come December.
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