Georgia's South Ossetia Conflict - Political Commentary

[Jedburgh]

IFRI, 23 Jul 09: Russia and the "Eastern Partnership" After the War in Georgia

Russia’s military intervention in Georgia in August 2008 sent a shock wave across the post-Soviet space, particularly the republics to the west and south of Russia. In December 2008, the European Union formalized the Eastern Partnership initiative, directed at Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine. In order to understand the impact of this war both on Russia’s bilateral relations with these countries and on the Eastern Partnership area as a whole, this article analyzes the reactions of these former Soviet republics to the Russian offensive. Three types of response are observed: keeping distance from Russia; maintaining a balance between Moscow and the West; and, finally, changing course (from rapprochement to keeping a distance and vice-versa) vis-à-vis the former center of the Soviet Empire.

[kaur]

IF JUSTICE were the ultimate goal, Dmitry Medvedev, Russia’s president, and Mikheil Saakashvili, his Georgian counterpart, should appear together in court in The Hague. As their countries’ commanders-in-chief, both violated international law during the war in Georgia. So suggests this week’s European Union report on the war. Behind them should sit Vladimir Putin, the mastermind of Georgia’s dismemberment, and the leaders of South Ossetia and Abkhazia who also acted illegally.

http://www.economist.com/world/europ...ry_id=14560958

EU report.

http://www.ceiig.ch/Report.html

[Jedburgh]

CSIS, 1 Nov 10: Georgian Lessons: Conflicting Russian and Western Interests in the Wider Europe

Russia’s invasion, occupation, and partition of Georgia in August 2008 initially sent shock waves throughout Europe and NATO and appeared to signal a new confrontational phase in Moscow’s relations with the West. This volume places the conflict in the context of Russia’s broader objectives, its internal weaknesses, the limitations of EU and NATO policies, and America’s security priorities.

First, the Georgian conflict underscored Moscow’s determination to reclaim an extensive zone of dominance corresponding with the former Soviet territories. Second, it displayed a shrewd calculation by the Kremlin about the fractured and ineffective Western response, and Moscow continues to test the Obama administration’s rapprochement in pursuing its expansionist ambitions. Third, the 2008 conflict had a lasting impact on the Central-East European and post-Soviet states most exposed to pressures from Moscow. While the former demanded more tangible security guarantees from NATO, the latter either sought accommodation with Russia or intensified their protective strategies. Additionally, beneath the veneer of success, the conduct of the war, the economic recession, escalating separatist sentiments, and faltering attempts by Moscow to make the country more globally competitive revealed Russia’s long-term weaknesses in the midst of its attempted neo-imperial restoration. The study concludes with succinct recommendations on how the transatlantic alliance can more effectively handle Russian ambitions and prepare itself to deter or manage future crises......

[kaur]

BBC: «Putin, Russia & the West: The War»

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tLc_b5xgb6Y

[davidbfpo]

Found by accident a fascinating article and link to a Russian documentary of unclear origin (which is on YouTube) and just in time for the fourth anniversary too:http://www.jamestown.org/programs/ed...b5dc88c4bee68c

The fourth anniversary of the August 2008 Russo-Georgian war has been marked by a seemingly open spat between the supporters of President Vladimir Putin and Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev. In a 47-minute documentary film of unclear origin, “Lost Day,” posted on YouTube, retired and active service top Russian generals, including Army General, former First Deputy Defense Minister and Chief of the General Staff Yuri Baluyevsky, accuse Medvedev of indecisiveness and cowardice during the conflict with Georgia and praise Putin. According to Baluyevsky, a decision to invade Georgia was made by Putin before Medvedev was inaugurated President and Commander-in-Chief in May 2008. A detailed plan of military action was arranged and unit commanders were given specific orders in advance. In August 2008, according to Baluyevsky, Medvedev needed to issue a simple order: “Go” – and commanders would open sealed envelopes with combat orders that were given to them beforehand to commence the invasion.

Curiously a retired CIA analyst at a UK conference referred to there only being 48 hours notice of the crisis.

[Jedburgh]

FIIA, 24 March 2015: The New Alliance and Integration Treaty Between Russia and South Ossetia: When Does Integration Turn into Annexation?

....does the new Alliance and Integration Treaty really change anything on the ground? True, the new treaty partly codifies – and thus cements – the already existing reality. However, the biggest change involves the border between South Ossetia and Russia – which is officially still the border of Georgia and Russia. In practice, this border has now been abolished: border formalities and customs barriers are vanishing and Russia and South Ossetia form a “single space” (Articles 3 and 5). This is also a clever way to get around the fact that South Ossetia cannot formally join the Eurasian Economic Union as other members Kazakhstan, Belarus and Armenia have not recognized its independence....

This did not make much of a noise here in the US, although all of Western officialdom has registered their formal displeasure with Russia's "violation of Georgia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity in blatant contradiction to the principles of international law, OSCE principles and Russia’s international commitments."

[Ray]

Bye-Bye, Abkhazia, Crimea, South Ossetia!

On March 18, Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, and Leonid Tibilov, the separatist leader of South Ossetia...... signed a Russian–South Ossetian treaty of alliance and integration.

....accord is similar to the one Russia signed with Abkhazia....November 2014. That deal meant that in practice, Moscow would be responsible for the customs, defense, and security of the self-declared republic.......

http://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/?fa=59550 MARCH 30, 2015

And of course, Crimea.

East Ukraine hanging in between.