Georgia's South Ossetia Conflict - Political Commentary

[kaur]

MOSCOW MOVES TO DE FACTO ANNEXATION OF GEORGIAN BREAKAWAY REGIONS

By Svante E. Cornell and David J. Smith (04/16/2008 issue of the CACI Analyst)

Moscow’s promised response to the Kosovo settlement in the Caucasus appears to be materializing. For several weeks, Russian leaders from President Vladimir Putin down have taken new bold steps that encroach even further and more directly on Georgia’s territorial integrity than is already the case. On April 16, Russia’s outgoing president Vladimir Putin signed a decree moving toward the de facto annexation of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, removing the tiny fig leaf still present regarding Moscow’s ambitions of direct control over Georgia’s breakaway regions. These moves could to trigger a spiral of instability in the wider region, unless a forceful western response is found.

http://www.isn.ethz.ch/pubs/ph/detai...10622&id=54679

Marietta König
The Georgian-South Ossetian Conflict

http://www.core-hamburg.de/documents...04/K%F6nig.pdf

TBILISI WITHDRAWS FROM THE JOINT CONTROL COMMISSION; PROPOSES NEW FORMAT FOR SOUTH OSSETIA
By Niklas Nilsson (03/19/2008 issue of the CACI Analyst)

Russia has in the aftermath of Kosovo's declaration of independence further reinforced its support for South Ossetia, as well as Abkhazia, stressing the importance of Kosovo as a precedent for other ethnic conflicts. On March 6, Russia withdrew from the 1996 CIS treaty imposing economic sanctions on Abkhazia and has subsequently held discussions in the State Duma on the prospects for recognizing the independence of the two regions. Russia's envoy to NATO, Dmitry Rogozin, has also sought to connect these decisions to the outcomes of the Bucharest NATO summit in April, where a verdict will likely be cast on Georgia's prospects for obtaining a Membership Action Plan within NATO. Several NATO members oppose a MAP for Georgia due to the implications Georgia's unresolved conflicts and its troubled relations with Russia may have for the alliance.

http://www.cacianalyst.org/?q=node/4816

[Darksaga]

According to news reports the Russians have committed 500 armored vehicles, 150 tanks, deployed the Black Sea fleet and is planning a 100 plane airborne insertion.

[Stevely]

According to news reports the Russians have committed 500 armored vehicles, 150 tanks, deployed the Black Sea fleet and is planning a 100 plane airborne insertion.

In other words, it seems likely the Russians are going to attempt to conquer the whole of Georgia, and either re-absorb it or install a puppet government.

[Fuchs]

The price would be too high and a Russia-friendly puppet government would not last long after a rise of nationalistic feelings as it always happens during an invasion.

The Georgian government will fall most likely anyway because of this apparent disaster. That's what Putin hopes for imho.

[walrus]

The danger here is that someoen has miscalculated.

Putin calculates that the West can't and won't intervene militarily.

We are calculating that Russia will pull back.

What if all of us are wrong????

[Ken White]

No cut to the defense budget? We'll just have to wait and see. BTW, I'm not calculating that Russia will pull back or that the 'west' won't intervene. Everytime I think someone has done the dumbest thing in the world, someone comes along and tops it...

Don't you hate it when people don't play right? National interests can be such a drag.

[Stan]

Hey Carl !
Sorry, I think your email to me got zapped by our server.

I think much depends upon the proficiency of the Russian armed forces as of this moment. If they are as inept as they were when they first went into Chechnya, things could get very complicated for Vlad.

I agree with you and would add that although mathematically Russia outnumbers Georgia in both manpower and equipment, Georgia has been receiving training and equipment from NATO for the last 10 years. And, nobody better than Russia can related to fighting a small unit mired in the mountains.

The Russian press is content to report that Georgia's military capabilities and training have changed little, while Baltic/NATO studies and this Deutsche Welle article would indicate otherwise.

Today, roughly one-quarter of Georgia's functional land forces are US-trained. The backbone of the Georgian army is seven infantry battalions raised from scratch and brought by the US Green Berets from boot camp to something quite close to NATO-standard combat readiness over the years, a mass of some 5,000 men.

This Telegraph article sums up Russia's Peacekeeping proficiency nicely:

The Russians lack of enough force to deploy decisively from the outset has forced them to over-rely on artillery...

The problem the Russians face in South Ossetia is that their peacekeepers have had to make the transition overnight to what is, in effect, a war-fighting force.

Regards, Stan

[kaur]

Georgian troops have pulled back to positions at or south of those held on 6 August, when the current hostilities began, said Georgian Interior Ministry spokesman Shota Utiashvili.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7552012.stm

If someone is interested in Soviet military maps of Georgian territory you can find those there.

http://www.topomaps.ru/caucasus/georgia.shtml

[reed11b]

It appears by following the mainstream press, that Georgia intiated the conflict with a heavy bombardment of a civilian city and the Russians responded. It is hard to be sympathetic to the Georgians based on this, but there seems to be some sympathy for them within the community. What am I missing?
Reed

[120mm]

Note to self: There are still American training advisors trapped in Georgia. I talked to a friend, yesterday, and he says they are receiving sporadic artillery at the training base where they're living.

No casualties for us, yet....

[Wildcat]

In other words, it seems likely the Russians are going to attempt to conquer the whole of Georgia, and either re-absorb it or install a puppet government.

If that happens, say hello to the world's newest small war. The Georgians are well equipped and well trained (by us, coincidentally... anyone else happen to notice that they wear woodland MARPAT uniforms?). They won't just sit back and let themselves be absorbed by the Russians. They'll retaliate, and the Chechans may get involved as well. This will get very bloody, and I don't expect it to last just a few days. This could go on for months.

[bourbon]

In other words, it seems likely the Russians are going to attempt to conquer the whole of Georgia, and either re-absorb it or install a puppet government.

Maybe, or just keep the conflict hot enough to put the kibosh on Georgia (and the other candidate Ukraine) being voted into NATO membership come December.

[Jedburgh]

According to news reports the Russians have committed 500 armored vehicles, 150 tanks, deployed the Black Sea fleet and is planning a 100 plane airborne insertion.

In future posts, when making comments of this nature, provide a source. If you cannot provide a direct link, at a minimum clearly state the source of your information.