Georgia's South Ossetia Conflict - Political Commentary

**Jedburgh** · 06-27-2008

Eurasia Daily Monitor, 26 Jun 08: The West is Confused About What to Do in Abhazia

......There do not seem to be any points of agreement between the sides on how to avoid future escalation of the conflict. What is worse, the sides are hardly speaking to each other, let alone listening. Vashadze said that Moscow had indicated that it might allow Georgia to retain nominal sovereignty over Abkhazia and South Ossetia but only if it repudiated its bid to join NATO. Last January in a national referendum, however, over 70 percent of Georgians voted to join the alliance, and the government in Tbilisi is in no position to ignore their expressed will.

The West is at present annoyed by the growing tension but not ready to intervene seriously. The Georgians want to replace or supplement Russian peacekeepers with a multinational force, but EU nations do not have extra troops to send and also believe that Afghanistan, Sudan, Lebanon, Iraq and Iran are more serious problems. Meanwhile, according to OSCE observers in South Ossetia, there are shooting incidents virtually every day.

In Moscow generals and diplomats do not issue threatening statements without explicit authorization from the top leaders. The language of General Burutin's statement may indicate that Moscow has already made a tentative political decision to commence serious military action in Abkhazia and/or Ossetia in the coming months. Western indifference may be ill-timed.

23 Jun 08: Gazprom's Move on Abhazia: More Reasons for Georgia to Block Russia's WTO Accession

Russia’s Gazprom has announced its intention to launch exploration for oil and gas in Abkhazia on July 1, apparently offshore in the Black Sea. According to a notice just circulated by Gazprom’s board, the June 27 shareholders’ meeting will discuss plans by Gazprom, its subsidiary Promgaz, and the Abkhaz authorities to conduct a “technical and economic assessment of the resource base in hydrocarbons of the Republic of Abkhazia and the development of proposals regarding the forms of cooperation between OAO Gazprom and the Republic of Abkhazia in the areas of geological exploration work, production of hydrocarbons, supply of gas and gasification.” Promgaz will undertake this work from July 1, 2008, to December 31, 2009, “in accordance with instructions from OAO Gazprom”....

**AmericanPride** · 07-01-2008

Georgia claims Russian de facto control of Abkhazia:

http://en.rian.ru/world/20080701/112744626.html

**Jedburgh** · 07-22-2008

Network World, 21 Jul 08: Georgia President's Website Falls Under DDOS Attack

The Web site for the president of Georgia was knocked offline by a distributed denial-of-service (DDOS) attack over the weekend, yet another in a series of cyberattacks attacks against countries experiencing political friction with Russia.

Georgia's presidential Web site was down for about a day starting early Saturday until Sunday, according to the Shadowserver Foundation, which tracks malicious Internet activity.

Network experts said the attack was executed by a botnet, or a network of computers that can be commanded to overwhelm a Web site with too much traffic.....

**Jedburgh** · 07-22-2008

ARAG, 14 Jul 08: Georgia and Russia: A Further Deterioration in Relations

Key Points

* Moscow’s attempts to destabilise Georgia have not declined since the accession of President Medvedev.

* Two recent incidents: the introduction of Russian railway troops without informing or seeking permission from Tbilisi, and the arrest of Russian peacekeepers carrying unauthorised anti-tank missiles have further exacerbated the situation.

* With the Russian Gazprom planning to prospect for oil and gas off the coast of the unrecognised Republic of Abkhazia, the stage is set for a further escalation.