Georgia's South Ossetia Conflict - Political Commentary

[Wildcat]

The only action that any third party is in any position to make is to impose swift sanctions against Russia. These will be about as effective as they were against Iran, Iraq, Cuba, et al. In other words, it won't accomplish squat. And with Russia potentially controlling that oil pipeline, it's dangerous for us to be playing that card. As the world's #2 petroleum exporter, they could really put us in the hurt locker considering how fragile our economy is vis a vis the price of oil.

The only other action I could see us taking is to boost our aid to Georgia and hope that they're able to mount one hell of a guerrilla campaign.

[wm]

The only action that any third party is in any position to make is to impose swift sanctions against Russia. These will be about as effective as they were against Iran, Iraq, Cuba, et al. In other words, it won't accomplish squat. And with Russia potentially controlling that oil pipeline, it's dangerous for us to be playing that card. As the world's #2 petroleum exporter, they could really put us in the hurt locker considering how fragile our economy is vis a vis the price of oil.

Not sure how this follows as the beginning of the 2 oil pipelines that traverse Georgia are in Azerbaijan. If they want to control the flow to the West, the easier answer would be a walk over the Azeri--I think they have a caus belli as I believe the Azeri cut off shipments through the Baku-Novorossiysk pipeline last winter. This one seems to have little to do with oil.

[Wildcat]

Not sure how this follows as the beginning of the 2 oil pipelines that traverse Georgia are in Azerbaijan. If they want to control the flow to the West, the easier answer would be a walk over the Azeri--I think they have a caus belli as I believe the Azeri cut off shipments through the Baku-Novorossiysk pipeline last winter. This one seems to have little to do with oil.

I'm merely saying that any effort by outside parties to intervene economically will do little to deter Russia. Of course oil is not a driver of this conflict, but it can be used to inflict damage.

[Stan]

I'm merely saying that any effort by outside parties to intervene economically will do little to deter Russia. Of course oil is not a driver of this conflict, but it can be used to inflict damage.

It's a gas pipeline BTW, not oil. Gazprom wants Nordstream to Germany and Southstream to the ME to flourish, but can't do said (the Baltic States won't have them) without Georgia and the Ukraine. what's left is Turkey, and Turkey could give a Sierra about Putin (you get the rest).

Was Kosovo a big deal to Puti Puu ? You bet, and only Georgia and the Ukraine now stand in his way.

The 3 fat pigs we call them here. Russian Gas, Electric and Rail.

[kaur]

Lie in Russian official news broadcast. Just one of those many ones (tonight they started to talk about Baltic/Ukrainian mercenarys like during Chechen wars fightin in Georgian side). But this one is really BIG lie.
Mikhail Leontyev is Kremlin's loudspeaker and he is citing to Statfor think tank. Maybe someone understands the text that starts 4.50 in this clip. ... or show it to Russian-speaking colleagues. Clip ends with direct threathening of neighbours.

http://rutube.ru/tracks/917658.html?...5f977bb5a09f46

[kaur]

The catch is that Russia cannot maintain its ambivalent stance of supporting the secessionist quasi-states and acknowledging that they remain parts of Georgia; nor can it keep pretending that it is not a party to the conflict but merely the guarantor of a non-existent peace process. Prior to the war, Moscow had been very irritated by Eduard Kokoity’s corrupt regime, but now to all intents and purposes it owns South Ossetia and has not only to provide aid but to resolve the status issue (Ezhednevny zhurnal, August 8). Medvedev is forced to make decisions that he is very uncomfortable with and to place them in a new strategic line for the Caucasus that he is not really qualified to draw, while Putin takes charge over practical matters like distributing money and resources. Spoils from this “victory” would hasten Russia’s drift from democracy, worsen its investment climate, and add more tension to relations with the West and with Ukraine. Diplomats may contemplate a return to the status quo ante, but Russia has changed in the course of this entirely unnecessary war, and the damage cannot be undone.

http://www.jamestown.org/edm/article...cle_id=2373302

Several other observers predicted that the Russian-Georgian war would give Russia’s siloviki hardliners the upper hand in the country’s domestic politics. “Even a short ‘peace-keeping’ war will not only provoke a growth in enmity toward Russia on the part of Western countries, but also--and this is more important for us--will confirm [Russian] society in the opinion that over there, in the West, there are not only arrogant, rather stupid pindosy [a derogatory term for Americans], but an enemy who will not yield,” wrote Dmitry Volkov. “There are no real doubts about how Western countries will view the Russian attack. This will allow President Medvedev to be put in the unambiguous position of a ‘strong national leader’ completely dependent on the power structures” (www.gazeta.ru, August 9).

If Russia “gets involved in a war” with Georgia, this will solidify “what the Russian siloviki have achieved [over] the last several months,” wrote the commentator Yulia Latynina. “At the same time, it is completely unimportant who wins this war and who will be its victims. The very fact of such a war means that control over Russia will be retained by the siloviki, the special services, and Putin. The siloviki [would] even profit from the disgrace of Russia; in that case, there will be a bigger outcry, hysteria and money” (www.ej.ru, August 8).

http://www.jamestown.org/edm/article...cle_id=2373303

[Ron Humphrey]

How the Chinese may percieve this major distraction from their coming out party?

Also consider that should this end badly in the long run for Russia and they once again be sidelined to pariah status they may have to look towards becoming almost a client state to China in really being able to continue selling those exports upon which they have built their resurging economy.

Probably way out in left field but what the hay, worth looking at


AND RA: Thanks for the link its interesting reading and I am looking at it. The one problem I have with WIKI is that it is completely user created and when a large section of the posting is without sourcing and other parts are based on information from sources which may or may not carry a bias it really has to be taken for face value and with a ton of salt

[Culpeper]

Looks like Russia was totally prepared for this. Georgia made a big mistake. These people really hate each other. No different than the conflicts during the 90s. Looks like it is winding down. For an army that has split the enemy forces in two I think their ultimatum was more than generous. Nevertheless, leadership on both sides makes me wonder where is the World Court when we need it.