Georgia's South Ossetia Conflict - Political Commentary

[Ratzel]

(and I am fairly sick of telling ethnic Russian here I have no need to learn Russian, as we are living in Estonia),

Racist! Nazi! Xenophobe!

I just thought I'd introduce you to the political rhetoric of immigration politics in America.

[Stan]

Racist! Nazi! Xenophobe!

I just thought I'd introduce you to the political rhetoric of immigration politics in America.

Hmmm, let's go back to my childhood days in NE DC for just a second
I joined the Army to get outta there

To be frank, 13 years ago, having taken all the required exams in order to legally work and live here, I have little to say to folks that have spent 50 years here thinking they live in Russia, and yet, can't muster a "thank you" in Estonian. I have even less sympathy for the current youth that align themselves with whatever is in fashion. Such fashion statements include bomb threats to schools and shopping centers (250 or more a year, all false).

I've said it a hundred times this year: If you're so Russian, the border to Russia is that way, 240 clicks or so...Should I now offer you a ride ?

How's my political rhetoric

Regards, Stan

[jmm99]

Hei K,

from kaur
This statement sounds almost like "Ich bin ein Berlinier"

Agreed; but Pres. Kennedy was willing and able to stand behind that statement with military force. I give Pres. Bush the benefit of the doubt that he is willing, but I do not see the "able" is presently available (leaving aside the wisdom of the policy if it were).

Hence, a policy based on "I am a Georgian" sounds good; but lacks a credible base in real terms.

Sorry to be so gloomy about this situation, but I still am seeing Hungary 1956.

[carl]

kaur:

By "the west", I meant the entire west, especially western Europe. I would be shocked speechless if any country west of Poland was prepared to do anything substantive to help the "near abroad".

For all our stated good intentions, the US is fully occupied elsewhere. US forces are strained severely right now and we haven't show much inclination to make our forces bigger in order to ease that strain.

I remember a Republic of South Vietnam that we abandoned. If I remember correctly we encouraged the Kurds once and then changed our minds. More recently we cheered on the Shiites and sat on our hands while Saddam crushed them.

My opinion about the Russian military is based mostly on results. It is also based on all that I've read, things like the the FPRI article mentioned above by Stan. My opinion though is that of someone with zero practical experience.

[jmm99]

Short history and timeline

http://www.freedomfighter56.com/en_history.html

The Hungarian Revolution of 1956 Created and maintained by the European Division Collections and Services Directorate
This year marks the 50th anniversary of the Hungarian Revolution of 1956. This page provides links to sites commemorating the event or providing resources for research.

http://www.loc.gov/rr/international/...s/hu-1956.html

Collections of the 1956 Digital Archive - In Depth

Donald and Vera Blinken Collection - Hungarian Refugee Interviews from 1957 to 1958More than 30,000 pages of several hundred in-depth interviews, together with 3,000 pages of subject files.

Zwack CollectionSpecial collection of newspaper clippings on 1956.

National Security Archive Collection - declassified intelligence documents on 1956
CIA daily briefings and weekly analyses, October-December 1956.
This collection comprises the daily briefings and weekly summaries prepared by the United States Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) during the 1956 revolution. These top secret documents were made accessible between 2001 and 2005 as a result of the repeated efforts of the civil organization called National Security Archive

RFE/RL Collection - Media CoverageNewspaper clippings and press releases relating to Refugee issues from 1956 to 1967.

RFE/RL Collection - Background ReportsBackground Reports written on Hungary by the Research Institute of RFE/RL from 1954 to 1989.

RFE/RL Collection - Evaluation Information ItemsSelected documents from the Evaluation Information. Items written by RFE field bureaus on Hungarian Refugee issues from 1952 to 1971.

1956 OSA Audiovisual Collection - 69 films and film excerptsDocumentaries, fiction and propaganda films, reports and newsreels.

Hoover Institution Archives - Audience Opinion Surveys by RFE/RLFrom the Archives of the Hoover Institution.

OSA Reference Information Paper on 1956A thematic guide prepared by archivists at OSA.

Selected Online Collections

http://www.osa.ceu.hu/digitalarchive/#nsa

[Ron Humphrey]

Short history and timeline

http://www.freedomfighter56.com/en_history.html



http://www.loc.gov/rr/international/...s/hu-1956.html

Collections of the 1956 Digital Archive - In Depth



http://www.osa.ceu.hu/digitalarchive/#nsa

One would hope that the Russians see Hungary 1956 as well

Hungarian university students gathered and marched to the statue of József Bem, a Polish General who led Hungarian freedom fighters during the 1848 Revolution, to express solidarity for the Polish workers fighting against communism. The protest soon swelled to 200,000 Hungarians demanding independence in front of the Parliament.

And Hungary/ the many many other countries with similar experiences as they have been after the 80's

Is it truly realistic for any one nation/country/man to think that they can acheive much more than temporary results in controlling those around them through these historically horrific practices. One would think that they know better. Especially with the information environment today.

[badtux]

The Hungarians lost in 1848 too. It was not until 1918 that Hungary was stripped out of the Hapsburg Empire as an independent nation.

You'd think that Georgians would study history insofar as the response of Western nations when Russian tanks invade (i.e., crickets), but that, apparently, just doesn't happen anymore. Doing a Finland and being very, very careful not to prod the bear is pretty much the only way to deal with the situation if you're in Russia's "near abroad", but some nations just don't seem to get the hint...

[jmm99]

30 years plus, where the US accepted that there would be no rollback of SovCom & ChiCom borders as they then existed. The policy became definitely one of containment - which in the end worked through Reagan.

The SovCom & ChiCom response (after Hungary) was then to institute the proxy wars - of which, Vietnam was one. Perhaps, Vlad & Co. want to see another go-around; perhaps, thinking they will do better this time. I dunno.

I see this situation as even more unstable, but then I am a skeptic and pessimist, whose crystal ball has been often proved wrong.

[carl]

I think it important to note that because Russia defeated an inept and so far not very determined Georgia, it does not mean it is the Soviet Union of 1975. It is a country with a lot of weaknesses, the most glaring of which is demographic. Their population is falling.

They outnumber the countries of the west "near abroad" but not overwhelmingly so. The combined population of Poland, Czech Rep, Slovakia, Finland, Ukraine and the Baltic countries is around 111 million. Russia's is 141 million (numbers based on a quick internet search).

People need to be serious about the threat they pose and the effort required to oppose it but that does not mean it would be hopeless to try. Russia has to be stressed in order for those weaknesses to come into play.

If Vlad got them into a really serious situation, I don't think it is certain the population would go along with it.

[Ken White]

what I've read about the Russian army -- all their services -- in this operation are pretty far from awe inspiring. Lot of tactical errors on view, foot deployment and weapons handling sloppy as all get out, obviously not the greatest morale in the world, lot of mechanical and maintenance problems and a lot of older equipment -- with few antennae.

I didn't worry much about them 30-40 years ago when I was supposed to, I worry less now than I did then.

[wm]

I think it important to note that because Russia defeated an inept and so far not very determined Georgia, it does not mean it is the Soviet Union of 1975.

Concur.

From my admittedly limited open source views, I find the operation to be on about a par with the US mission to Grenada, coupled with the ability to have done the kind of extended train up that the US had prior to DS. I do not find the outcome to be too impressive. I do note that they did a real good job of knowing what the key nodes were and how to set themselves up to be able to respond to counter measures AKA Terrain IPB). IOW the OPPLAN seemed well done and the execution was what one might expect of a unit that was basicaly doing an end of training cycle FTX. To draw the conclusion that the Russian military is really a world class power is a little beyond the premises' strength I think.