Georgia's South Ossetia Conflict - Political Commentary

[AmericanPride]

Germany and Russia have a special relationship which is mutually beneficial to both, but not necessarily for the EU or NATO. Germany is the 5th largest energy consuming country in the world. Nearly half of its natural gas, a third of its oil, and a fifth of its coal imports come from Russia (http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/Ger...ackground.html). This has led to the development of the Nord Stream project, which can potentially save 1 billion USD annually for Germany by avoiding the fees on transit through Eastern Europe. 40% of the consortium responsible project is owned by Germany companies, and former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder is the leading member of the shareholder's committee.

I think energy is the primary issue, but there are other secondary trade relations; such as German economic technical expertise to assist Russian development. Germany is the heavy-hitter on the continent and key for Russia's strategy in prevening an EU concensus to form against its resurgency.

[AmericanPride]

Rumors abound of Russian decision to deploy missiles to Baltic, Kaliningrad, Belarus, and Syria.

http://www.hurriyet.com.tr/english/w...1338.asp?scr=1

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7...583460,00.html

I'm sure (for now) that this decision is more measured by its political implications than introducing any new or significant capabilities.

[Stan]

IMO Merkel's recent statement is barely anything new. I recall her statements at the April summit being "Georgia will become a NATO member if it wants to, and it does." She did however say that NATO entry was an issue of timing (provision of a Membership Action Plan), but not outright apposed to Georgia's membership. However, to now say "we are firmly moving toward Georgia's membership" has an empty ring to it.

Georgia will not be able to join the bloc say, any sooner than 5 years from now, if then. AND, Russia knows this better than most with its Sevastopol Naval Base Treaty (expiring in 2017 or something). That is, a non-NATO military base in Georgia translates into non-admittance to NATO.

Nordstream not only has Gerhard Schroeder at the helm, they've gone and found yet another former PM to force the Sierra through Scandinavia and the Baltic Seabed -- ex-Finnish PM Paavo Lipponen. Lipponen was quoted:

My salary will be moderate. I will be paid at a normal international level.

[jmm99]

to Georgia may be quicker than I thought - three scared Finns in a room come up with uni-solution more quickly - sometimes.

So, perhaps relevant to NATO in the long run - note reference to Sweden in body of article (and poll results in #26 above).

HELSINGIN SANOMAT
INTERNATIONAL EDITION - HOME
19.8.2008
Vanhanen: South Ossetia crisis will affect next national defence report
Finland not offered any “special role” in resolving crisis

Prime Minister Matti Vanhanen (Centre) believes that the crisis between Russia and Georgia over the territory of South Ossetia is having an effect on the upcoming government report on security and defence policy, which is now being finalised.

“It would be crazy to say that it does not have an impact, because of course it does. The real world always affects how things are dealt with”, Vanhanen said.

He voiced his views on Monday at a press conference held at his Kesäranta residence, marking the end of the summer period.

http://www.hs.fi/english/article/Van.../1135238759827

PS: Suomi shuts down during "summer period" - good time for someone to attack them; "winter period" bad time.

[Ron Humphrey]

http://www.nato.int/docu/pr/2008/p08-104e.html

Statement from NATO

[jmm99]

that Russian at NATO.

From the NY Times:

Russia Adopts Blustery Tone Set by Envoy
By CLIFFORD J. LEVY
Published: August 27, 2008
MOSCOW — Here is one measure of the aggressive shift in Russian foreign policy in recent weeks: Dmitri O. Rogozin, Russia’s representative to NATO, a finger-wagging nationalist who hung a poster of Stalin in his new ambassadorial office, is not sounding so extreme any more.

“There are two dates that have changed the world in recent years: Sept. 11, 2001, and Aug. 8, 2008,” Mr. Rogozin said in an interview, explaining that the West has not fully grasped how the Georgia conflict has heightened Russians’ fears about being surrounded by NATO. “They are basically identical in terms of significance.”

“Sept. 11 motivated the United States to behave really differently in the world,” he said. “That is to say, Americans realized that even in their homes, they could not feel safe. They had to protect their interests, outside the boundaries of the U.S. For Russia, it is the same thing.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/28/wo...pagewanted=all

That comparison should raise some bristles and hackles among the readers of this post.

Reuters backgrounder on Gospodin Rogozin:

Putin appoints firebrand as Russia's NATO envoy
Thu Jan 10, 2008 11:27am EST
By Guy Faulconbridge
MOSCOW (Reuters) - President Vladimir Putin has appointed a firebrand nationalist as Russia's permanent representative to NATO as the Kremlin takes a more assertive stance towards its Cold War foe. Putin signed a decree appointing Dmitry Rogozin, the former head of a nationalist party in parliament, to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, a Kremlin spokeswoman said on Thursday.....

http://www.reuters.com/article/world...ldNews&sp=true

[jmm99]

First some words from the President.

HELSINGIN SANOMAT
INTERNATIONAL EDITION - FOREIGN
27.8.2008
President Halonen told in advance of Russian decision to recognise breakaway areas
Vanhanen: No impact on Finland's "direction"
Russian President Dmitri Medvedev informed Finnish President Tarja Halonen in advance of Russia's decision to grant recognition to the Georgian breakaway provinces of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Helsingin Sanomat has learned that Medvedev informed Halonen by letter in good time before the information was made public. Russia is believed to have sent similar letters to other countries - at least to France, the holder of the EU Presidency. ....
....
According to the President, a war in Europe, in which Finland’s neighbour Russia is taking part, is an unsettling phenomenon, and a cause for serious consideration.

“The war in South Ossetia clearly showed that so-called frozen conflicts are very volatile. Their causes are historically complicated, and resolving them is very important, but difficult.

Halonen praised Finnish activities as the holder of the chairmanship of the Organisation of Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), and said that Finland has been successful in its mission.

With respect to Finnish foreign policy, Halonen emphasised the importance of perseverance and the maintenance of a credible national defence.

“We are one of the few European countries with a capability of defending ourselves. We will not give this up, and we will develop our defence further.”

http://www.hs.fi/english/article/Pre.../1135238989222

Brave words from cousin Tarja. Hopefully, she knows more about defense than milking a cow.

----------------------------------------
And from the ministers:

HELSINGIN SANOMAT
INTERNATIONAL EDITION - FOREIGN
26.8.2008
Vanhanen and Stubb criticise Russian military action in Georgia
PM “disappointed” at use of military force, FM sees impact on ties with NATO
Prime Minister Matti Vanhanen (Centre) says that the European Union must remain calm and united when dealing with the crisis in Georgia. ....
.....
Vanhanen also said that there is no need for Finland to worry, or to reconsider the country's foreign and security policy line, with its regional defence system and conscription.

Minister for Foreign Affairs Alexander Stubb (Nat. Coalition Party) discussed the conflict between Georgia and Russia at a meeting of Finnish Ambassadors in Helsinki. In his speech, he said that the date with three eights (August eighth, 2008, or 080808, when the fighting began) has become a dark turning point in world politics.

Stubb says that the crisis affects the agenda of Finnish foreign and security policy, as well as relations between Finland and NATO.

“Now there is reason to consider membership. The time for a decision is not yet at hand. However, flexibility and frequency in the assessment of security policy should be increased. It cannot be like a slow-motion black-and-white film.”

http://www.hs.fi/english/article/Van.../1135238960449

Tarja & opponent Sauli Niinistö in last election - "country folk"