Georgia's South Ossetia Conflict - Political Commentary

[jmm99]

from Ron Humphrey
Why was it OK for Russia to do what it did ...

Here is Russia's answer from Sergei Ivanov, my favorite Kremlin saatana:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aoXuHl6V1Kg

5 minutes of worthwhile viewing - knowing the adversary.

[jmm99]

"the temporary security zone".

Russia says to pull back Georgia force by Aug 22
REUTERS
Reuters North American News Service
Aug 19, 2008 11:50 EST

MOSCOW, Aug 19 (Reuters) - President Dmitry Medvedev said on Tuesday that by Aug. 22 Russia will pull its troops in Georgia back to the positions set out in a French-brokered ceasefire agreement.

Medvedev told French leader Nicolas Sarkozy by telephone that "by 22 August... a part of the peacekeepers will be pulled back to the temporary security zone," the Kremlin said in a statement.

"The remaining contingent that was used to reinforce the peacekeepers will be pulled back to the territory of South Ossetia and to Russia," the Kremlin said.

http://wiredispatch.com/news/?id=304671

[Norfolk]

Nordstream not only has Gerhard Schroeder at the helm, they've gone and found yet another former PM to force the Sierra through Scandinavia and the Baltic Seabed -- ex-Finnish PM Paavo Lipponen. Lipponen was quoted:

Now that is interesting; I had read that Lipponen had turned the offer down a little while ago. Well, that has reversed pretty quickly. Hmmm...

[carl]

These are the things I have learned from watching and reading about all this. They of course are only my opinion.

- Georgia acted very foolishly and did not fight effectively. That is of
secondary consideration.

The main points are:

- Russia wants its empire back, or at least a reasonable facsimile thereof.

- Russia's military is rather more effective than it was 10 years ago.

- The outcome of this conflict will increase greatly the confidence of the
Russian gov in the power of its armed forces and will make them that
much more likely to use them in the future.

- In addition to the military side the Russians are proving fairly adept at
the pr game, "nothing but peacekeepers in those tanks", and therefore
the diplomatic side.

- All this is especially worrying because Russia does a pretty good imitation
of a criminal state.

- Georgia did its best to align itself with the US, to the extent of dispatching
soldiers to help us in a war that had nothing to do with Georgia, and
now it is facing ruination.

The west had better start thinking how far they will let the Russians go and once this is decided (I don't really expect this to happen, but it would be the honorable thing) communicate this clearly to the Russians and to the nations that comprise the "near abroad".

The most important thing the nations in the "near abroad" have to think about is how much the west is willing to help them; really willing to help, not just what they say, and how much they can help themselves.

[jmm99]

not too long ago (yesterday), equaled "the temporary security zone", which now equals "the security corridor" (permanent ?)

NY Times
Russia Sends Mixed Signs on Pullout From Georgia
By MICHAEL SCHWIRTZ and ELLEN BARRY
Published: August 19, 2008
POTI, Georgia — Russia showed small signs of moving a few troops away from Georgia on Tuesday. But Russia retained its grip on the country, and Russian forces bound and blindfolded 21 Georgian soldiers at the Black Sea port of Poti, parading them with five seized Humvees belonging to Georgia’s backers — the United States......

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/20/wo...=1&oref=slogin

Now for the international military law aspects of the NYT article.

from same source
A 1999 document written by the Joint Control Commission, an international body that monitored tensions in South Ossetia, the breakaway enclave over which hostilities between Russia and Georgia flared this month, gives peacekeepers access to a “security corridor” that extends about five miles in each direction from the enclave’s perimeter.

Under that document, the corridor reaches into Georgian-held territory, including portions of the country’s main east-west highway, and right through Karaleti.

Mr. Medvedev has said Russian peacekeepers will pull back from other Georgian territory but remain inside the security corridor.

These prior legal documents and agreements will keep coming out of the woodwork as the Russian FSB legal machine continues to fine tune its presentation.

from same source
At the United Nations on Tuesday the Security Council considered a new, abbreviated resolution demanding that Russia withdraw all of its troops from Georgia.

But during the acrimonious session, Vitaly Churkin, Russia’s ambassador to the United Nations, declared that his nation could not support a resolution that did not endorse all six points of the cease-fire agreement, which he said should be included “verbatim.”

As well he should argue “verbatim”, since the cease-fire agreement favors his country.

[kaur]

carl said:

The most important thing the nations in the "near abroad" have to think about is how much the west is willing to help them; really willing to help, not just what they say, and how much they can help themselves.

President Bush said:

"Georgia is a beacon of liberty for this region and the world," Mr Bush said. "The path of freedom you have chosen is not easy, but you will not travel it alone ... the American people will stand with you."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2005/may/10/georgia.usa

This statement sounds almost like "Ich bin ein Berlinier"

carl said:

- Russia's military is rather more effective than it was 10 years ago.

I'd like to ask why you say so? Do you compare Georgian-Russian war with Chechen-Russia war? If yes, then I think that for example in the 1st phase of Russians did the same things and even better. To my knowledge they were much better prepared. They had of course more time. Artillery conquered and infantry (mechanized) occupied. Georgians stopped after 1st round, but Chechens continued after conventional phase with unconventional warfare. And the war goes on. It depends ...

[Ratzel]

(and I am fairly sick of telling ethnic Russian here I have no need to learn Russian, as we are living in Estonia),

Racist! Nazi! Xenophobe!

I just thought I'd introduce you to the political rhetoric of immigration politics in America.

[Stan]

Racist! Nazi! Xenophobe!

I just thought I'd introduce you to the political rhetoric of immigration politics in America.

Hmmm, let's go back to my childhood days in NE DC for just a second
I joined the Army to get outta there

To be frank, 13 years ago, having taken all the required exams in order to legally work and live here, I have little to say to folks that have spent 50 years here thinking they live in Russia, and yet, can't muster a "thank you" in Estonian. I have even less sympathy for the current youth that align themselves with whatever is in fashion. Such fashion statements include bomb threats to schools and shopping centers (250 or more a year, all false).

I've said it a hundred times this year: If you're so Russian, the border to Russia is that way, 240 clicks or so...Should I now offer you a ride ?

How's my political rhetoric

Regards, Stan

[jmm99]

Hei K,

from kaur
This statement sounds almost like "Ich bin ein Berlinier"

Agreed; but Pres. Kennedy was willing and able to stand behind that statement with military force. I give Pres. Bush the benefit of the doubt that he is willing, but I do not see the "able" is presently available (leaving aside the wisdom of the policy if it were).

Hence, a policy based on "I am a Georgian" sounds good; but lacks a credible base in real terms.

Sorry to be so gloomy about this situation, but I still am seeing Hungary 1956.

[carl]

kaur:

By "the west", I meant the entire west, especially western Europe. I would be shocked speechless if any country west of Poland was prepared to do anything substantive to help the "near abroad".

For all our stated good intentions, the US is fully occupied elsewhere. US forces are strained severely right now and we haven't show much inclination to make our forces bigger in order to ease that strain.

I remember a Republic of South Vietnam that we abandoned. If I remember correctly we encouraged the Kurds once and then changed our minds. More recently we cheered on the Shiites and sat on our hands while Saddam crushed them.

My opinion about the Russian military is based mostly on results. It is also based on all that I've read, things like the the FPRI article mentioned above by Stan. My opinion though is that of someone with zero practical experience.

[jmm99]

Short history and timeline

http://www.freedomfighter56.com/en_history.html

The Hungarian Revolution of 1956 Created and maintained by the European Division Collections and Services Directorate
This year marks the 50th anniversary of the Hungarian Revolution of 1956. This page provides links to sites commemorating the event or providing resources for research.

http://www.loc.gov/rr/international/...s/hu-1956.html

Collections of the 1956 Digital Archive - In Depth

Donald and Vera Blinken Collection - Hungarian Refugee Interviews from 1957 to 1958More than 30,000 pages of several hundred in-depth interviews, together with 3,000 pages of subject files.

Zwack CollectionSpecial collection of newspaper clippings on 1956.

National Security Archive Collection - declassified intelligence documents on 1956
CIA daily briefings and weekly analyses, October-December 1956.
This collection comprises the daily briefings and weekly summaries prepared by the United States Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) during the 1956 revolution. These top secret documents were made accessible between 2001 and 2005 as a result of the repeated efforts of the civil organization called National Security Archive

RFE/RL Collection - Media CoverageNewspaper clippings and press releases relating to Refugee issues from 1956 to 1967.

RFE/RL Collection - Background ReportsBackground Reports written on Hungary by the Research Institute of RFE/RL from 1954 to 1989.

RFE/RL Collection - Evaluation Information ItemsSelected documents from the Evaluation Information. Items written by RFE field bureaus on Hungarian Refugee issues from 1952 to 1971.

1956 OSA Audiovisual Collection - 69 films and film excerptsDocumentaries, fiction and propaganda films, reports and newsreels.

Hoover Institution Archives - Audience Opinion Surveys by RFE/RLFrom the Archives of the Hoover Institution.

OSA Reference Information Paper on 1956A thematic guide prepared by archivists at OSA.

Selected Online Collections

http://www.osa.ceu.hu/digitalarchive/#nsa

[Ron Humphrey]

Short history and timeline

http://www.freedomfighter56.com/en_history.html



http://www.loc.gov/rr/international/...s/hu-1956.html

Collections of the 1956 Digital Archive - In Depth



http://www.osa.ceu.hu/digitalarchive/#nsa

One would hope that the Russians see Hungary 1956 as well

Hungarian university students gathered and marched to the statue of József Bem, a Polish General who led Hungarian freedom fighters during the 1848 Revolution, to express solidarity for the Polish workers fighting against communism. The protest soon swelled to 200,000 Hungarians demanding independence in front of the Parliament.

And Hungary/ the many many other countries with similar experiences as they have been after the 80's

Is it truly realistic for any one nation/country/man to think that they can acheive much more than temporary results in controlling those around them through these historically horrific practices. One would think that they know better. Especially with the information environment today.

[badtux]

The Hungarians lost in 1848 too. It was not until 1918 that Hungary was stripped out of the Hapsburg Empire as an independent nation.

You'd think that Georgians would study history insofar as the response of Western nations when Russian tanks invade (i.e., crickets), but that, apparently, just doesn't happen anymore. Doing a Finland and being very, very careful not to prod the bear is pretty much the only way to deal with the situation if you're in Russia's "near abroad", but some nations just don't seem to get the hint...

[jmm99]

30 years plus, where the US accepted that there would be no rollback of SovCom & ChiCom borders as they then existed. The policy became definitely one of containment - which in the end worked through Reagan.

The SovCom & ChiCom response (after Hungary) was then to institute the proxy wars - of which, Vietnam was one. Perhaps, Vlad & Co. want to see another go-around; perhaps, thinking they will do better this time. I dunno.

I see this situation as even more unstable, but then I am a skeptic and pessimist, whose crystal ball has been often proved wrong.

[carl]

I think it important to note that because Russia defeated an inept and so far not very determined Georgia, it does not mean it is the Soviet Union of 1975. It is a country with a lot of weaknesses, the most glaring of which is demographic. Their population is falling.

They outnumber the countries of the west "near abroad" but not overwhelmingly so. The combined population of Poland, Czech Rep, Slovakia, Finland, Ukraine and the Baltic countries is around 111 million. Russia's is 141 million (numbers based on a quick internet search).

People need to be serious about the threat they pose and the effort required to oppose it but that does not mean it would be hopeless to try. Russia has to be stressed in order for those weaknesses to come into play.

If Vlad got them into a really serious situation, I don't think it is certain the population would go along with it.

[Ken White]

what I've read about the Russian army -- all their services -- in this operation are pretty far from awe inspiring. Lot of tactical errors on view, foot deployment and weapons handling sloppy as all get out, obviously not the greatest morale in the world, lot of mechanical and maintenance problems and a lot of older equipment -- with few antennae.

I didn't worry much about them 30-40 years ago when I was supposed to, I worry less now than I did then.

[kaur]

Russian journal "Vlast" writes:

A 6,000-word article in the current issue of “Kommersant-Vlast” attempts to answer the most basic questions about the war between Moscow and Tbilisi, including “why did the war begin?” “Why hasn’t it ended?” “What were the losses on the Russian and Georgian sides? And “What did each side learn from the other?” (www.kommersant.ru/doc.aspx?DocsID=1011909).

http://windowoneurasia.blogspot.com/...tried-but.html

[wm]

I think it important to note that because Russia defeated an inept and so far not very determined Georgia, it does not mean it is the Soviet Union of 1975.

Concur.

From my admittedly limited open source views, I find the operation to be on about a par with the US mission to Grenada, coupled with the ability to have done the kind of extended train up that the US had prior to DS. I do not find the outcome to be too impressive. I do note that they did a real good job of knowing what the key nodes were and how to set themselves up to be able to respond to counter measures AKA Terrain IPB). IOW the OPPLAN seemed well done and the execution was what one might expect of a unit that was basicaly doing an end of training cycle FTX. To draw the conclusion that the Russian military is really a world class power is a little beyond the premises' strength I think.

[bourbon]

Since the start of the recent hostilities I have been scanning the news in vein looking for something by Thomas Goltz, the author of several books I've read on the Caucasus. Goltz is a great, he's a mad man, what a foreign correspondent should be. He writes with a great historical depth. Apparently he was in Istanbul at the outbreak of hostilities and headed off to Georgia, he is reporting over at The Overseas Press Club. Enjoy:

Vintage Russia Makes Its Comeback, 12 August 2008
Georgia: A Five-Hour Lunch, 18 August 2008
Georgia's Western Ambitions, 18 August 2008
South Ossetia as Bait, 19 August 2008

[Stevely]

Since the start of the recent hostilities I have been scanning the news in vein looking for something by Thomas Goltz, the author of several books I've read on the Caucasus. Goltz is a great, he's a mad man, what a foreign correspondent should be. He writes with a great historical depth. Apparently he was in Istanbul at the outbreak of hostilities and headed off to Georgia, he is reporting over at The Overseas Press Club. Enjoy:

Vintage Russia Makes Its Comeback, 12 August 2008
Georgia: A Five-Hour Lunch, 18 August 2008
Georgia's Western Ambitions, 18 August 2008
South Ossetia as Bait, 19 August 2008

Bourbon, thanks for posting that - that was some entertaining reading. I will stay tuned in to the fella's dispatches.