Please forgive my ignorance, but does anyone know how the Turks are going to view all this?
Please forgive my ignorance, but does anyone know how the Turks are going to view all this?
"We fight, get beat, rise, and fight again." Gen. Nathanael Greene
That's actually the best question.Originally Posted by carl
I was searching this thread with the search function backwards for "turk" and only found references to Turkey as location for pipelines and once in the context of bases. Finally, I found this question.
Sarkozy represented the EU in this conflict, but Turkey isn't in the EU.
Seriously; Turkey is the relevant "Western" power in all discussions about the Caucasus.
Germany, France, Uk and also the USA are this time pretty irrelevant in comparison to Turkey.
It's got more than a million men in its armed forces, has probably more conventional warfare power than Russia, controls the Bosporus, is the closest and most-concerned NATO member, has all the relevant bases...
Why don't I get to know the Turkish government's opinion on the conflict? A whole week, but I only got statements from other countries and discussions seem to ignore Turke completely.
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Turkey is closest, has a common border - NATO members should consider that Turkey's national security interests are at stake in this region. It is absolutely necessary to consider that (all else would be a very poor behaviour as ally).
Turkey is the power base for any strategy whatsoever if it's about exerting influence in the Caucasus. It's an all-or-nothing affair. There's nothing else than hot air and failures possible if Turkey doesn't support a Western Caucasus strategy.
As far as I know is Turkey itself much less threatening to Russia than the USA. It's probably in a much better position to achieve diplomatic successes in that region.
Give Turkey the diplomatic leadership, let Turkey "lead" the Western world in this struggle.
They have about 90% of the relevant NATO power concerning the Caucasus*. The USA might deploy two brigades permanently (risking disasters in other conflicts by doing so) and the UK one if "the West" decided to protect/guarantee Georgia's remnants. Turkey could deploy an entire army - the thing that has 2-3 corps which have 2-3 divisions each which have 3-4 brigades each.
Turkey is the decisive regional power, it dwarfes whatever Germany, France, UK and USA could invest in this region. Combined.
*: My guess.
Last edited by Fuchs; 08-16-2008 at 12:30 AM.
Turkey hasn't taken a clear position yet, in part because its torn between the two sides fora variety of strategic, diplomatic, and economic reasons, and in part because the cabinet has been on break/holiday.
I suspect Moscow cares far more about the French, UK, and German reaction than the Turks--its not an issue that the Turks would apply leverage over, given their broader interests.
Turkish Diplomacy
Before citing some refs to Turkey, this is a map showing the pre-1992 autonomous regions in the Caucasus.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Caucasiamapussr.gif
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Articles from EDM (1st 3 are background)
http://www.jamestown.org/edm/article...cle_id=2373293LUKOIL AND TURKEY
By John C. K. Daly
Wednesday, August 6, 2008
As Europe frets over the political implications of Gazprom’s increasing presence in the EU market, another Russian energy company has quietly made an inroad into hydrocarbon-starved Turkey.
.....
For Ankara, however, the sale merits careful consideration. Turkey already receives 65 percent of its natural gas exports from Russia, and as recently as last winter Gazprom cut supplies, forcing Ankara to dip into its stored reserves (EDM, January 23). In the event of rising tension between Moscow and Ankara, whether political or something as simple as a pricing dispute, LUKoil’s new acquisitions, if they became political pawns, could affect everything from heating to “trains, planes and automobiles.” All Ankara can do at the moment is wonder whether the allure of the free market will trump the siren song emanating from the Kremlin. As Russia’s new president was formerly chairman of Gazprom’s board of directors, it seems likely that the Kremlin will follow Alekperov’s acquisition with more than passing interest. .....
http://www.jamestown.org/edm/article...cle_id=2373297TURKEY COOPERATES WITH KOREA TO DEVELOP A NATIONAL MAIN BATTLE TANK
By Saban Kardas
Thursday, August 7, 2008
Turkey continues to announce new armament programs that involve the development and production of a “Turkish brand” of major weapons systems. .... Eventually, Turkey plans to replace all its MBTs, as many 1,000, which will become obsolete in the next few decades (Hurriyet, Sabah and Radikal, July 30). .....
http://www.jamestown.org/edm/article...cle_id=2373301EXPLOSION RAISES QUESTIONS ABOUT THE SECURITY OF THE BTC PIPELINE
By Gareth Jenkins
Friday, August 8, 2008
On August 5 there was an explosion and subsequent fire on a section of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline running through eastern Turkey, resulting in the flow of oil through the pipeline being halted. .... On August 8 officials from Turkey’s state-owned Turkish Pipeline Company (BOTAS) predicted that it would take another 10-14 days for the pipeline to be repaired, with some forecasting that it could be as much as three months before the pipeline was once again operating normally (Today’s Zaman, August 8). ......
http://www.jamestown.org/edm/article...cle_id=2373305TURKEY CAUGHT IN A DILEMMA OVER SOUTH OSSETIA
By Gareth Jenkins
Monday, August 11, 2008
The outbreak of fighting between Georgia and Russia over South Ossetia has demonstrated the cost of Ankara’s often confused attempt at achieving a balance between becoming a regional player in the Caucasus and the need to maintain a working relationship with Moscow.
.....
The outbreak of fighting on August 7 caught Turkey completely unprepared. ...
[what follows is a 3 paragraph description of various inconsistent actions by Erdogan and Putin’s refusal to speak with him] ....
Turkish commentators have been unanimous in attributing Putin’s refusal to speak with Erdogan to Russian fury over Turkish military aid to Georgia, noting that Russia’s stranglehold over Turkey’s supplies of natural gas mean that it can afford simply to ignore any Turkish protests over Russian policy in the Caucasus (Hurriyet, Radikal, Yeni Safak, Zaman, August 11).....
http://www.jamestown.org/edm/article...cle_id=2373313TURKEY AND THE PROBLEMS WITH THE BTC
By John C. K. Daly
Wednesday, August 13, 2008
With Western eyes fixed on the clash between Russia and Georgia over the disputed enclaves of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, the conflict is affecting neighboring countries’ oil shipments, particularly Azerbaijan and transit nation Turkey.
.....
Quite aside from concerns about restoring tranquility in the Caucasus, Turkey has deep fiscal concerns impelling it to seek a quick end to the conflict. On August 11 Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili telephoned Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan seeking his assistance in ending the clash (Hurriyet, August 12). The same day Erdogan spoke with UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon to discuss the armed confrontation, urging the UN to take initiatives to end the clash and restore peace and stability to the Caucasus (Sabah, August 12). Erdogan also proposed establishing a Caucasus alliance to ensure peace and stability in the region. It would include Caucasian nations along with the United States, the EU and Russia. "Turkey is ready to play a key role in making this alliance a reality. But this idea needs to be discussed under UN auspices to become practicable," he said.
.....
Quite aside from diplomatic concerns, for Turkey, which imports 90 percent of its energy needs and 65 percent of its natural gas from Gazprom, the sooner the dispute is resolved the better, so it can begin again to collect transit revenues to pay Moscow’s ever-rising energy bills.
http://www.jamestown.org/edm/article...cle_id=2373317DEVILS AND DETAILS: AHMADINEJAD VISITS TURKEY
By Gareth Jenkins
Thursday, August 14, 2008
......
A similar naivety can be seen in Erdogan’s recent peace initiative in the Caucasus. ...
[what follows is a paragraph description of Erdogan's efforts at a Caucasian Pact - see prec. ref.] ....
Neither the newspaper nor Erdogan appeared to realize that while all efforts to end the bloodshed were welcome, the whole point of Moscow’s fierce military response to Georgia’s attempt to regain control of South Ossetia was to demonstrate Russia’s hegemony in its “near abroad.” Moscow is unlikely to have any desire to dilute its authority through a pact, particularly one that brings the United States and the EU into the region.
Nor did Erdogan appear to be aware that if the AKP were serious about Turkey acceding to the EU, he needed to try to ensure that Turkey’s foreign policies were coordinated with, or at least complementary to, those of the EU. ....
Seems that, so far, Turkish diplomacy has not reached 1st base.
This is the guy whose opinion I trust. He has been dealing with this region for a bretty long time.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisf...8/georgia.nato
His nest is here. Tons of material.
http://www.silkroadstudies.org/new/
British "Economist."
http://www.economist.com/opinion/dis...ry_ID=11920701The war in Georgia
Russia resurgent
Aug 14th 2008
From The Economist print edition
The war in Georgia is a victory for Russia. The West’s options are limited, but it needs to pursue them firmly
The same Economist article says
Yet the hard truth, for Georgians and others, is that pleas for military backing from the West in any confrontation with Russia are unlikely to be heeded. The Americans gave Mr Saakashvili token help when they transported Georgian troops home from Iraq (where 2,000 of them made up the third-largest allied contingent). And they have now sent in humanitarian aid in military aircraft and ships. But nobody is willing to risk a wider war with Russia over its claimed near-abroad. Among Russia’s immediate neighbours, only the Baltic states, which slipped into NATO when Russia was weak, can claim such protection.Longer article from the same issue.Most importantly, although Mr Saakashvili’s foolishness makes admitting Georgia harder, Russia’s incursion should not delay plans to let Ukraine and Georgia into NATO. Russia’s aggression will make these countries, and others, keener than ever on joining. The worst outcome of this war would be for the West to allow Russia a veto over any sovereign country’s membership of either NATO or the EU.
http://www.economist.com/world/europ...ry_id=11920992The war in Georgia has demonstrated convincingly who is in charge in Russia. Just as the war in Chechnya helped Mr Putin’s rise to power in 1999, the war in Georgia may now keep him in power for years to come. As Lilia Shevtsova of the Carnegie Moscow Centre argues, if Mr Medvedev still had a chance to preside over a period of liberalisation of Russia, this opportunity is now gone. The war in Georgia will make Russia more isolated. Worst of all, it will further corrode the already weak moral fabric of Russian society, making it more aggressive and nationalistic. The country has been heading in the direction of an authoritarian, nationalistic, corporatist state for some time. The war with Georgia could tip it over the edge.
"The Kremlin's blatant aggression puts at stake not only the future of the most progressive state in the former Soviet Union, (...)"
Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Ukraine?
I hope no one seriously thought that Little Dimitry really had a chance to reform Russia. He's not from the shoulder-stripe inner circle of Putin's power base, and his entire career has been dependent upon Vlad. Any kind of power struggle within the Kremlin would probably result in D's premature departure from the living. Also consider that in a political culture in which strength is the only symbol of power, the military's continued offensives despite D's agreement to a cease-fire speaks to the powerlessness of his position.
Putin is not going to be drawn out through confrontation and Cold War rhetoric. That simply plays into his hands and the state-nationalist ideology of his fellow power brokers. Maybe an "invitation" to Russia for NATO membership can dislodge them long enough to slip in Ukraine?
When I am weaker than you, I ask you for freedom because that is according to your principles; when I am stronger than you, I take away your freedom because that is according to my principles. - Louis Veuillot
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