Georgia's South Ossetia Conflict - Political Commentary

[jmm99]

from AmericanPride
That would be a disaster.

Agreed.

I got lost in the analogy; but if it works for you - 5x5.

[kaur]

In an interview published in today’s “Kommersant,” South Ossetian leader Eduard Kokoity said that his people and Russian forces behind them had driven the ethnic Georgians who had been living there out and would not allow them to return, although he said his government would investigate and punish cases of burning and looting.
Kokoity’s words are a rare public acknowledgement by an official that he and the forces under his command or with whom he is working are engaging in what can only be called ethnic cleansing, a form of genocide (http://www.kommersant.ru/doc.aspx?fr...docsid=1011783).
Arguing that in most of what had been “Russian enclaves” in South Ossetia, there were no ethnic Georgians left by the time of the conflict, Kokoity said that “where they still remained, we, unlike the forces of Georgia offered them a corridor and gave the peaceful population the chance to leave.”
But however that might be, he added, “we do not intend to allow” them back because there are “more than 18,000 Ossetian refugees from Georgia” in North Ossetia. We need them to return to South Ossetia,” and apparently, to the places left vacant by the more than 23,000 ethnic Georgians who have been driven out of that region.

http://windowoneurasia.blogspot.com/...-ossetias.html

Aside from the avoidable loss of innocent life, one the most depressing things about the past few days is the lack of intellectual honesty on display. Rather than examine motive and facts on the ground, both Russians and Georgians have chosen to extract what they wish from the overall picture and used it to fit their pre-existing nationalist ideologies. Russia apologists and Russophobes everywhere have all weighed in over the last few days, conveniently ignoring atrocities committed by the 'other side'. Hypocrisy is prevalent on both sides too and worse still, the outrageous use of the word 'genocide' - not even remotely applicable to this dirty little war.


But whatever happens now in the Caucasus, relations between Russia and the West (and Russia's westward-inclined neighbours) must surely, from this moment on, be re-evaluated by all.

http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/media...ussia_georgia/

[Stan]

‘don’t mess with us in our own backyard’. This is enough.

The problem for the West is the hundreds of thousands of Russians who found themselves, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, trapped in countries that couldn’t stand them.

Nadia the green-eyed Russian waitress whispered conspiratorially, ‘‘They don’t like us, you know. The Estonians, they think we are occupiers.’’ She glanced over at the other bar staff and continued, ‘‘but we are not. We were born here, this is our land, can’t you see the great Orthodox cathedral - if we came here with Stalin, who do they think built that?”

In Georgia the issue is Ossetia and Abkhazia, but here in the Baltic the issue is the 40 per cent of the Estonian population who consider themselves Russian.

There is a similar but not quite so large minority in Latvia, Lithuania and, of course, the big one - Ukraine. There are also significant numbers of Russians in the Muslim republics of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.

These are all potential powder kegs, if Moscow chooses to light the flame.

Whether the Kremlin wants to do this is anyone’s guess. However, here in Tallinn it is easy to see how a more expansive Kremlin might go about its business. Among the Estonians there is a tremendous amount of insecurity at the moment.

The prospect of any aggressive Russian action is remote because at the moment our interests and Russia’s coincide in trade and a mutual financial conundrum in the face of Asian global competition.

Furthermore, the people in power in Moscow, despite the naive caricatures peddled by the western press, are not idiots.

It does not mean the Red Army will not roll again, but it implies that from now on, Europe and America have to deal with Russia as an equal. In the past 18 years, we have dismissed the Russians. This was not healthy. Today, after Georgia, the situation has changed.

The Russians have spoken; the West has listened. The status quo is strengthened and Nadia can feel confident again without being threatening.

www.davidmcwilliams.ie

[kaur]

Stan mentioned.

In Georgia the issue is Ossetia and Abkhazia, but here in the Baltic the issue is the 40 per cent of the Estonian population who consider themselves Russian.

Estonian population is 1,4 million. Fact is that there are approx 93 000 Russian citizens, 110 000 persons wihtout citizenship. Rougly there are 25 percent Russian speaking persons. They are not all Russians. There are Ukrainians, Belorussians, Georgians, Chechens etc. Most of them don't share Russian official opinion.

Oeh, I'm already tired to explain this question. Every kind of waitresses and hotel servants share such spam

[Stan]

Stan mentioned.

Estonian population is 1,4 million. Fact is that there are approx 93 000 Russian citizens, 110 000 persons wihtout citizenship. Rougly there are 25 percent Russian speaking persons. They are not all Russians. There are Ukrainians, Belorussians, Georgians, Chechens etc. Most of them don't share Russian official opinion.

Oeh, I'm already tired to explain this question. Every kind of waitresses and hotel servants share such spam

jõudu !
While I wholeheartedly agree with you (and I am fairly sick of telling ethnic Russian here I have no need to learn Russian, as we are living in Estonia), as the author points out, it's definitely one of several sore points with the Kremlin and viewed by many as a potential powder keg.

We should also point out to the uninitiated that these "stateless" people are not running across the border to obtain Russian citizenship, and Russia is not handing out passports either. Perhaps one of the singular reasons we had far less than the typical Russian 5 to 21-day incursions.

Terv, Stan

[kaur]

Georgians Doing Forced Labor in South Ossetia
18 August 2008

In a sign that Georgians are being abused in the Russian-controlled province, a Russian officer and armed Ossetians escorted forced laborers Saturday through the city.

"They are cleaning up after themselves," said Mikhail Mindzayev, South Ossetia's interior minister.

"Labor even turns monkeys into humans," the Russian officer said. He threatened to arrest an AP photographer if he took pictures and would not give his name.

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/articl.../42/369851.htm

[Stevely]

"Labor even turns monkeys into humans," the Russian officer said. He threatened to arrest an AP photographer if he took pictures and would not give his name.

And Russians into swine, it seems. The old thuggish Russia was really a whole lot closer to the surface than I thought.

[Ratzel]

(and I am fairly sick of telling ethnic Russian here I have no need to learn Russian, as we are living in Estonia),

Racist! Nazi! Xenophobe!

I just thought I'd introduce you to the political rhetoric of immigration politics in America.

[Stan]

Racist! Nazi! Xenophobe!

I just thought I'd introduce you to the political rhetoric of immigration politics in America.

Hmmm, let's go back to my childhood days in NE DC for just a second
I joined the Army to get outta there

To be frank, 13 years ago, having taken all the required exams in order to legally work and live here, I have little to say to folks that have spent 50 years here thinking they live in Russia, and yet, can't muster a "thank you" in Estonian. I have even less sympathy for the current youth that align themselves with whatever is in fashion. Such fashion statements include bomb threats to schools and shopping centers (250 or more a year, all false).

I've said it a hundred times this year: If you're so Russian, the border to Russia is that way, 240 clicks or so...Should I now offer you a ride ?

How's my political rhetoric

Regards, Stan

[jmm99]

Hei K,

from kaur
This statement sounds almost like "Ich bin ein Berlinier"

Agreed; but Pres. Kennedy was willing and able to stand behind that statement with military force. I give Pres. Bush the benefit of the doubt that he is willing, but I do not see the "able" is presently available (leaving aside the wisdom of the policy if it were).

Hence, a policy based on "I am a Georgian" sounds good; but lacks a credible base in real terms.

Sorry to be so gloomy about this situation, but I still am seeing Hungary 1956.

[carl]

kaur:

By "the west", I meant the entire west, especially western Europe. I would be shocked speechless if any country west of Poland was prepared to do anything substantive to help the "near abroad".

For all our stated good intentions, the US is fully occupied elsewhere. US forces are strained severely right now and we haven't show much inclination to make our forces bigger in order to ease that strain.

I remember a Republic of South Vietnam that we abandoned. If I remember correctly we encouraged the Kurds once and then changed our minds. More recently we cheered on the Shiites and sat on our hands while Saddam crushed them.

My opinion about the Russian military is based mostly on results. It is also based on all that I've read, things like the the FPRI article mentioned above by Stan. My opinion though is that of someone with zero practical experience.

[jmm99]

The political issues surrounding the Georgian cease fire merge into continuing Russian military operations, which will be justified by the Kremlin's international military law experts as "additional security measures".

So, we find decided discomfort by M. Sarkozy with the language he accepted:

Last update - 02:40 17/08/2008
Russia signs cease fire agreement with Georgia
By News Agencies
.....
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev signed a cease-fire agreement with Georgia on Saturday, a day after Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili reluctantly signed the plan that calls for Russian troops to pull back, but that also grants them limited patrols inside Georgia.
.....
French President Nicolas Sarkozy also called on Russia to withdraw from all Georgian territory, in a letter sent to Saakashvili. In the letter, Sarkozy said the withdrawal must come, in spite of conditions authorizing "additional security measures" for Russian forces.

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1012079.html

The Russian concept of "additional security measures", one suspects, will go well beyond "limited patrols" (which was not in the NY Times graphic, but may be in the final version ???).

Relevant terms of the agreement linked by the NY Times are quoted at post #123 above.

If someone has a url of the text of the final as-signed agreement, it would be appreciated. I can't find one.

[Ken White]

The fine hand of the FSB...

“An armed group consisting of Georgian and Ukrainian nationalists and Georgia-based Chechen terrorists is being urgently formed on the outskirts of Gori. They plan to make their way to Gori and wear Russian military informs to pillage and torment the local population,” an official of the Russian Defense Ministry said. He added that the information had been received through intelligence and radio intercept."

(LINK). Midway down the page.

Thus the "We're leaving" while columns go in the other direction. Gotta love it; everything old is new again.

Three bridges!

[kaur]

More than seven billion U.S. dollars left Russia during Moscow’s military campaign in Georgia, a rate more than ten times higher than earlier in the year and the product at least in part of fears that “certain political risks” are making the Russian Federation a less attractive place for investment, according to Russian Finance Minister Aleksei Kudrin.

At the same time, however, Nadorshin said that “it is early to speak about a serious blow to the economy of Russia.” The Russian government has reserves in its state funds that can be used to soften the blow. But investors are nonetheless likely to remain cautious about Russia for “another three to six months and perhaps further.”
Other experts, however, dismissed the impact of the war in Georgia on these flows. Yevgeny Yasin, a specialist at the Higher School of Economics, said that it was not the war in South Ossetia but rather actions by the Russian authorities, as in the Mechel case, and the weakening of the international economy that are to blame.
But both Kudrin’s remarks and the “Novyye izvestiya” article strongly suggest that Moscow’s war in Georgia will have an impact on the Russian economy and consequently on Russia’s behavior, especially if Western governments make it clear that they no longer view Moscow as a reliable member of the international community.

http://windowoneurasia.blogspot.com/...ia-helped.html

In sum, Russia threatens to cut up Georgia, informally but methodically, on several levels: 1) in Abkhazia and South Ossetia; 2) through additional buffer zones (glacis) beyond the secessionist areas; 3) by isolating some remote chunks of territory (Svaneti); 4) by cutting off the country’s east and west from each other and isolating Tbilisi; and 5) by controlling the seaboard.

Cumulatively, these moves enable Moscow to threaten to dismember Georgia as a means to force a change of government in Tbilisi. In the next stage, Moscow may try to install local authorities in various parts of the country. Those authorities may then be forced to act without Tbilisi’s approval or even to declare insubordination to Tbilisi. Pro-Moscow groups are a very small fringe in Georgia. The Russians, however, can create supply problems and law enforcement difficulties in order to force local authorities to work with Russian occupation authorities, even if the latter refuse to work with the Georgian government.

http://www.jamestown.org/edm/article...cle_id=2373322

[kaur]

Russia’s Market Prepares for Sovereignty

But it isn’t the very bottom yet and the recommendation to buy at large will be given no sooner than the situation becomes the most pessimistic, which may happen in November, when the U.S. elects a new president, or in December, when NATO is due to deliberate whether to grant the MAP to Ukraine and Georgia. Another danger is the slump in oil prices to below $80/bbl.

http://www.kommersant.com/p1013198/r...ialog_outlook/

[Tom Odom]

I was going to post thios yesterda but we had comms issues so here tis. It gives a broader view of the issues.

MISFIRE
'We Are All Georgians'? Not So Fast.

By Michael Dobbs
Sunday, August 17, 2008; Page B01

It didn't take long for the "Putin is Hitler" analogies to start following the eruption of the ugly little war between Russia and Georgia over the breakaway Georgian province of South Ossetia. Neoconservative commentator Robert Kagan compared the Russian attack on Georgia with the Nazi grab of the Sudetenland in 1938. President Jimmy Carter's former national security adviser, Zbigniew Brzezinski, said that the Russian leader was following a course "horrifyingly similar to that taken by Stalin and Hitler in the 1930s."