... is how the Georgians thought that a military escalation would work to their favour. I don't doubt their sense of grievance... just their common sense.
What I can't help but wonder...
... is how the Georgians thought that a military escalation would work to their favour. I don't doubt their sense of grievance... just their common sense.
This is the very thing
Which makes me question that the Georgians would have been the ones to fire first. I'm quite certain their not in ignorance of the largess of the russian military.Originally Posted by Rex Brynen
That said did anyone not expect to see something like this happen in the region considering Russia's stances recently?
Any man can destroy that which is around him, The rare man is he who can find beauty even in the darkest hours
Cogitationis poenam nemo patitur
Please forgive my ignorance, but does anyone know how the Turks are going to view all this?
"We fight, get beat, rise, and fight again." Gen. Nathanael Greene
That's actually the best question.
I was searching this thread with the search function backwards for "turk" and only found references to Turkey as location for pipelines and once in the context of bases. Finally, I found this question.
Sarkozy represented the EU in this conflict, but Turkey isn't in the EU.
Seriously; Turkey is the relevant "Western" power in all discussions about the Caucasus.
Germany, France, Uk and also the USA are this time pretty irrelevant in comparison to Turkey.
It's got more than a million men in its armed forces, has probably more conventional warfare power than Russia, controls the Bosporus, is the closest and most-concerned NATO member, has all the relevant bases...
Why don't I get to know the Turkish government's opinion on the conflict? A whole week, but I only got statements from other countries and discussions seem to ignore Turke completely.
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Turkey is closest, has a common border - NATO members should consider that Turkey's national security interests are at stake in this region. It is absolutely necessary to consider that (all else would be a very poor behaviour as ally).
Turkey is the power base for any strategy whatsoever if it's about exerting influence in the Caucasus. It's an all-or-nothing affair. There's nothing else than hot air and failures possible if Turkey doesn't support a Western Caucasus strategy.
As far as I know is Turkey itself much less threatening to Russia than the USA. It's probably in a much better position to achieve diplomatic successes in that region.
Give Turkey the diplomatic leadership, let Turkey "lead" the Western world in this struggle.
They have about 90% of the relevant NATO power concerning the Caucasus*. The USA might deploy two brigades permanently (risking disasters in other conflicts by doing so) and the UK one if "the West" decided to protect/guarantee Georgia's remnants. Turkey could deploy an entire army - the thing that has 2-3 corps which have 2-3 divisions each which have 3-4 brigades each.
Turkey is the decisive regional power, it dwarfes whatever Germany, France, UK and USA could invest in this region. Combined.
*: My guess.
Last edited by Fuchs; 08-16-2008 at 12:30 AM.
Turkey hasn't taken a clear position yet, in part because its torn between the two sides fora variety of strategic, diplomatic, and economic reasons, and in part because the cabinet has been on break/holiday.
I suspect Moscow cares far more about the French, UK, and German reaction than the Turks--its not an issue that the Turks would apply leverage over, given their broader interests.
Turkish Diplomacy
Before citing some refs to Turkey, this is a map showing the pre-1992 autonomous regions in the Caucasus.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Caucasiamapussr.gif
---------------------------------
Articles from EDM (1st 3 are background)
http://www.jamestown.org/edm/article...cle_id=2373293LUKOIL AND TURKEY
By John C. K. Daly
Wednesday, August 6, 2008
As Europe frets over the political implications of Gazprom’s increasing presence in the EU market, another Russian energy company has quietly made an inroad into hydrocarbon-starved Turkey.
.....
For Ankara, however, the sale merits careful consideration. Turkey already receives 65 percent of its natural gas exports from Russia, and as recently as last winter Gazprom cut supplies, forcing Ankara to dip into its stored reserves (EDM, January 23). In the event of rising tension between Moscow and Ankara, whether political or something as simple as a pricing dispute, LUKoil’s new acquisitions, if they became political pawns, could affect everything from heating to “trains, planes and automobiles.” All Ankara can do at the moment is wonder whether the allure of the free market will trump the siren song emanating from the Kremlin. As Russia’s new president was formerly chairman of Gazprom’s board of directors, it seems likely that the Kremlin will follow Alekperov’s acquisition with more than passing interest. .....
http://www.jamestown.org/edm/article...cle_id=2373297TURKEY COOPERATES WITH KOREA TO DEVELOP A NATIONAL MAIN BATTLE TANK
By Saban Kardas
Thursday, August 7, 2008
Turkey continues to announce new armament programs that involve the development and production of a “Turkish brand” of major weapons systems. .... Eventually, Turkey plans to replace all its MBTs, as many 1,000, which will become obsolete in the next few decades (Hurriyet, Sabah and Radikal, July 30). .....
http://www.jamestown.org/edm/article...cle_id=2373301EXPLOSION RAISES QUESTIONS ABOUT THE SECURITY OF THE BTC PIPELINE
By Gareth Jenkins
Friday, August 8, 2008
On August 5 there was an explosion and subsequent fire on a section of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline running through eastern Turkey, resulting in the flow of oil through the pipeline being halted. .... On August 8 officials from Turkey’s state-owned Turkish Pipeline Company (BOTAS) predicted that it would take another 10-14 days for the pipeline to be repaired, with some forecasting that it could be as much as three months before the pipeline was once again operating normally (Today’s Zaman, August 8). ......
http://www.jamestown.org/edm/article...cle_id=2373305TURKEY CAUGHT IN A DILEMMA OVER SOUTH OSSETIA
By Gareth Jenkins
Monday, August 11, 2008
The outbreak of fighting between Georgia and Russia over South Ossetia has demonstrated the cost of Ankara’s often confused attempt at achieving a balance between becoming a regional player in the Caucasus and the need to maintain a working relationship with Moscow.
.....
The outbreak of fighting on August 7 caught Turkey completely unprepared. ...
[what follows is a 3 paragraph description of various inconsistent actions by Erdogan and Putin’s refusal to speak with him] ....
Turkish commentators have been unanimous in attributing Putin’s refusal to speak with Erdogan to Russian fury over Turkish military aid to Georgia, noting that Russia’s stranglehold over Turkey’s supplies of natural gas mean that it can afford simply to ignore any Turkish protests over Russian policy in the Caucasus (Hurriyet, Radikal, Yeni Safak, Zaman, August 11).....
http://www.jamestown.org/edm/article...cle_id=2373313TURKEY AND THE PROBLEMS WITH THE BTC
By John C. K. Daly
Wednesday, August 13, 2008
With Western eyes fixed on the clash between Russia and Georgia over the disputed enclaves of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, the conflict is affecting neighboring countries’ oil shipments, particularly Azerbaijan and transit nation Turkey.
.....
Quite aside from concerns about restoring tranquility in the Caucasus, Turkey has deep fiscal concerns impelling it to seek a quick end to the conflict. On August 11 Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili telephoned Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan seeking his assistance in ending the clash (Hurriyet, August 12). The same day Erdogan spoke with UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon to discuss the armed confrontation, urging the UN to take initiatives to end the clash and restore peace and stability to the Caucasus (Sabah, August 12). Erdogan also proposed establishing a Caucasus alliance to ensure peace and stability in the region. It would include Caucasian nations along with the United States, the EU and Russia. "Turkey is ready to play a key role in making this alliance a reality. But this idea needs to be discussed under UN auspices to become practicable," he said.
.....
Quite aside from diplomatic concerns, for Turkey, which imports 90 percent of its energy needs and 65 percent of its natural gas from Gazprom, the sooner the dispute is resolved the better, so it can begin again to collect transit revenues to pay Moscow’s ever-rising energy bills.
http://www.jamestown.org/edm/article...cle_id=2373317DEVILS AND DETAILS: AHMADINEJAD VISITS TURKEY
By Gareth Jenkins
Thursday, August 14, 2008
......
A similar naivety can be seen in Erdogan’s recent peace initiative in the Caucasus. ...
[what follows is a paragraph description of Erdogan's efforts at a Caucasian Pact - see prec. ref.] ....
Neither the newspaper nor Erdogan appeared to realize that while all efforts to end the bloodshed were welcome, the whole point of Moscow’s fierce military response to Georgia’s attempt to regain control of South Ossetia was to demonstrate Russia’s hegemony in its “near abroad.” Moscow is unlikely to have any desire to dilute its authority through a pact, particularly one that brings the United States and the EU into the region.
Nor did Erdogan appear to be aware that if the AKP were serious about Turkey acceding to the EU, he needed to try to ensure that Turkey’s foreign policies were coordinated with, or at least complementary to, those of the EU. ....
Seems that, so far, Turkish diplomacy has not reached 1st base.
This is the guy whose opinion I trust. He has been dealing with this region for a bretty long time.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisf...8/georgia.nato
His nest is here. Tons of material.
http://www.silkroadstudies.org/new/
Good analysis: even if the rest of your post was controversial.
Their crystal ball looks pretty accurate to me.
If more people had "common sense" in regards to how wars function, we wouldn't have so many of them.
I wonder where they got the idea that they could invade a country just becasue they didn't like it's leader.Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice in a telephone conversation today that Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili ``must go,'' meaning he should be ousted from office, Khalilzad said.
IMHO, if they haven't trained and armed the Georgians to destroy armor without air superiority - ala Hezbollah - it's far too late to do anything.
Some US advisers and contractors may really get to earn their pay soon (if not already); I'm sure they'll really looking forward to that.
I know Lincoln is supposed to be the greatest president etc., but I don't know why anyone would want want to force people to stay in your country when they don't want to. Both Czechs and Slovaks are far better off than Georgians, S. Ossetians, Serbs or Albanians.
Now Rank
I know this is an opportunity you've been looking forward to to be able to say just this, but
I wonder where they got the idea that they could invade a country just becasue they didn't like it's leader.
The UN with all its problems still plays a big part in representing when or how exactly that could or should take place.
I don't exactly remember any resolutions related to Georgians
getting out of SO.
Wow did you really say that? I wonder how many of the Czechs or Slovak people would view that.
Any man can destroy that which is around him, The rare man is he who can find beauty even in the darkest hours
Cogitationis poenam nemo patitur
Virtually all of them.
After a transition period of roughly four years, during which the relations between the states could be characterised as a "post-divorce trauma", the present relations between Czechs and Slovaks, as many people point out, are probably better than they have ever been.
No movement to re-unite Czechoslovakia has appeared and no political party advocates it in its programme. Political influences between the countries are minimal. Trade relationships were re-established and stabilized. After a short interruption, Slovakia's mountains are again the target of a growing number of Czech tourists.
When you're outnumbered, patiently waiting in an ambush is often the best tactical response.If you understand the situation, sometimes you don't need to wait very long, but since no one charged it, I have to assume that it wasn't a near ambush.
All the President's Men ?
Pop in and take a gander at President Medvedev's working meetings and conferences
Beginning of Working Meeting with Minister of Internal Affairs Rashid Nurgaliev
August 11, 2008
The Kremlin, Moscow
DMITRY MEDVEDEV: Rashid Gumarovich, I have received information, and you have probably also heard this, that the Georgian authorities are forcibly detaining Russian citizens on Georgian territory. This is, of course, in complete violation of international law. I do not know why they are doing this. Maybe they think they can use these people as a human shield. This is a completely unacceptable situation.
I also want to say - and I want you to take this under your personal control – that all citizens of foreign states, who are legally in Russia, must not be subjected to any kind of discrimination and can remain in Russia in accordance with the agreements that our country has with the countries from which these people have come. Supervision of these matters is the Ministry of Internal Affairs’ responsibility and I ask you to ensure it is carried out.
RASHID NURGALIEV: Dmitry Anatolyevich, we issued just such instructions three days ago, when Georgia launched its aggression against South Ossetia. We immediately sent out precisely these instructions throughout the Southern Federal District, given that this is the part of the country where the biggest numbers of people from Georgia reside, and we also gave specific instructions to the Federal Migration Service to monitor these matters throughout the Russian Federation.
We understand that the people are not to blame for this aggression and we will therefore do everything we can to uphold the law and protect the rights and interests of citizens living in Russia or present on our territory.
We have ensured public order in the Republic of North Ossetia-Alania over these last three days. Registered crimes have dropped two-fold and there has been a four-fold drop in the number of serious crimes.
All the necessary conditions are now in place for providing humanitarian assistance to the Republic of South Ossetia. In particular, a column set out directly for Tskhinvali at 5 a.m. this morning, and an extra 37 KAMAZ vehicles have been made available for transporting humanitarian aid - food, medicines and medical equipment – that will be used on the ground to help people.
DMITRY MEDVEDEV: Good, keep working, keep it under your control and report to me periodically on the public order situation in North Ossetia, in the North Caucasus in general and in the country overall, of course.
RASHID NURGALIEV: I will.
Much more at this link...
If you want to blend in, take the bus
Great political theatrics--each speaker reads his script well. I am amazed that the Russians still play at these "Potemkin village" sham displays.Pop in and take a gander at President Medvedev's working meetings and conferences
Beginning of Working Meeting with Minister of Internal Affairs Rashid Nurgaliev
August 11, 2008
The Kremlin, Moscow
Much more at this link...
Vir prudens non contra ventum mingit
The greatest educational dogma is also its greatest fallacy: the belief that what must be learned can necessarily be taught. — Sydney J. Harris
Deja vu, all over again ...
Or, can one find truth in Pravda ?
Just the headlines, without leads - full articles linked at link
http://english.pravda.ru/hotspots/Georgian troops burn South Ossetian refugees alive
[10.08.2008; today's lead]
....
Putin: Georgia’s actions are criminal, whereas Russia’s actions are absolutely legitimate
09.08.2008
....
War between Russia and Georgia orchestrated from USA
09.08.2008
...
Russian tanks enter South Ossetia to oust Georgian troops
08.08.2008
And whose news in Izvestia ?
http://www.reuters.com/article/compa...89780820080521Russia's Gazprom sells stake in Izvestia newspaper
Wed May 21, 2008 12:02pm EDT
MOSCOW, May 21 (Reuters) - Russian gas monopoly Gazprom ... has sold its majority stake in the Izvestia newspaper to a firm linked to a businessman reported to be a close ally of Prime Minister Vladimir Putin.
Finally, the third member of the deja vu triangle
http://www.itar-tass.com/eng/level2.html?GroupID=146ITAR-TASS
[10.08.2008; today's lead]
Tskhinvali totally cleared of Georgia troops - peacekeepers HQ.
Tskhinvali has been totally cleared of Georgian troops that are being forced towards the administrative border of South Ossetia with Georgia, aide to the commander of the Joint Peacekeeping Force (JPKF) Vladimir Ivanov told Itar-Tass...
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Sorry to interrupt the White-Fuchs debate. Nothing to add to that (despite tongue biting on BoP).
South Ossetia is about the size of my Copper Country (4 county area, 50K+ pop.) - just to provide some perspective of the real estate involved. We do have people in Georgia - and that does mean something.
Hey Ken, based on Fuchs' map, it looks like the Georgians north of Tskhinvali didn't occupy the high ground - no Puller in command there.
By the way
Has anyone else noticed that the cold wars back and getting warmer by the minute.
Any man can destroy that which is around him, The rare man is he who can find beauty even in the darkest hours
Cogitationis poenam nemo patitur
Yeah. For some time I was almost missing the good old days...until they came back. Now I'm starting to recall a little about why we were somewhat on edge back then.Funny, the last few weeks I've been thinking forget China/Taiwan/South China Sea as the likeliest theatre for the next potential big conventional war, it's Eastern Europe - Ukraine above all - that we should be worrying about. Guess Georgia may form a prelude.
Maybe
But I wouldn't necessarily look to others not counting their chickens before they've hatched. Noone has ever gotten everything they wanted and it those details within which the devils resideYeah. For some time I was almost missing the good old days...until they came back. Now I'm starting to recall a little about why we were somewhat on edge back then.
I just hope the planners on the various sides have considered how this type of thing generally tends to leave the planned path quickly.
Any man can destroy that which is around him, The rare man is he who can find beauty even in the darkest hours
Cogitationis poenam nemo patitur
Good links, thanks
That's no debate, that's my juvenile response to his juvenile and totally unnecessary non sequitur:
""I've observed discussions about this where people refrained about an oh-so-good U.S.-trained Georgian brigade. Well, maybe we should create a thread to identify the armies that were trained by the U.S. military and didn't afterward suck asap?I've got difficulties to remember any.""
I figure if he's dumb enough to keep posting such petty and unhelpful displays of bias and nose thumbing, the least I can do is nit pick him every time.
Saw that; strange dispositions -- if they're accurate...Hey Ken, based on Fuchs' map, it looks like the Georgians north of Tskhinvali didn't occupy the high ground - no Puller in command there.
http://www.jamestown.org/edm/article...cle_id=2373298
Another article on the actions before the war and intentions (the latter being obviously an expression of the author's opinion).
---------
Btw, I'd like to add that I happily agree with the idea that Germany should stop doing nation-building like training foreign policemen.
I do actually not care whether my people are good at it or not.
Last edited by Fuchs; 08-11-2008 at 01:17 AM.
The Moscow Times
Some intriguing articles this morning herein. Kinda makes me wonder how long these staff writers will be around
Moscow Flexes Muscles but Little Will Change
Conflict Opens Front in the MediaBut it would be counterproductive for Russian troops to move into Georgia beyond the border of South Ossetia, analysts said. "It would be most unpleasant for [President Dmitry] Medvedev at the beginning of his presidential term to be viewed around the world as the aggressor," Malashenko said.
Still, when Russia seeks a return to the status quo of continued separatism in South Ossetia, there will not be as many people with Russian passports living there, Khramchikhin said. "Many refugees who fled to Russia will fear to come back, despite Putin's promise to restore Tskhinvali with Russian money," he said.
Also, Russia's military victory over Georgia could be short-lived because other former Soviet republics will now seek protection from the West after seeing what happened in South Ossetia, fearing that their differences with Moscow might one day lead to an armed invasion, analysts said.
Russian television is flush with footage of misery left by the Georgian assault in the separatist district of South Ossetia, but few, if any, reports mention Russia's bombing of Georgia.
William Dunbar, a correspondent in Georgia for English-language state channel Russia Today, mentioned the bombing in a report Saturday, and he has not gone on air for the station since. "The real news, the real facts of the matter, didn't conform to what they were trying to report, and therefore, they wouldn't let me report it.
If you want to blend in, take the bus
Not to mention Russia's ability to impose a complete air and naval blockade on Georgia (it has already partly done this).
For a variety of reasons--in order to respond to perceived NATO and US encroachment in their sphere of influence, to highlights the limits of US power in the area, in order to signal "don't mess with us" to the rest of the CIS states, to assert that they are a superpower not to be be trifled with, to show they still have real military power, and for domestic political reasons--the Russians have every incentive to make the Georgians very miserable indeed.
Again, perfectly predictable. Why it wasn't foreseen in Tbilisi will, I am sure, be a quite interesting story.
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