Georgia's South Ossetia Conflict - Political Commentary

[Jedburgh]

Russia Profile Weekly Experts Panel, 16 Nov 07: Is Russia Behind an Orange Revolution in Georgia?

....It is clear that Saakashvili has upstaged the opposition by scheduling an early presidential election, for which the latter is unprepared. And it is likely that he will retain his post as the country’s president.

But the question remains – was Russia in any way involved in fermenting the unrest in Georgia and mobilizing the opposition that almost succeeded in brining down the pro-American president that Moscow so much disliked? Has Russia the capability and the resources to help stage its own version of an orange revolution in a post-Soviet state? Or is Moscow simply benefiting from a swell of genuine popular discontent against a leader who has clearly overstepped his boundaries? How will the West react to the opposition’s victory in Georgia? Will the new political regime be pro-Russian or continue the pro-Western and pro-NATO policies that Saakashvili introduced in 2004? How would Russia benefit from such a change in regime?

[Jedburgh]

Russia Profile, 14 Jul 08: A Conflict of Interests

South Ossetia, which is essentially a patchwork of ethnic Ossetian and Georgian villages with a total population estimated at 70,000, has been trying to break away from Georgia since the early 1990s. The recent assassination attempt against the pro-Georgian head of the Provisional Administration of South Ossetia, Dmitry Sanakoyev, shows that the conflict is heating up. Meanwhile, Russia’s support of the separatist authorities is unlikely to decrease, as Moscow wants to maintain its leverage in the region....

[Jedburgh]

EDM, 4 Aug 08: Moscow Orchestrates War Scare in South Ossetia

Since July 31, Russian state television channels have been airing inflammatory stories about Georgian forces firing on South Ossetia’s administrative center Tskhinvali, inflicting civilian casualties and causing a refugee exodus to North Ossetia. The allegations are not verified by any independent source nor can they be, given Russia’s exclusion of any meaningful international monitoring in South Ossetia, disabling the OSCE and precluding Georgian air surveillance.

Moscow’s propaganda wave closely resembles previous ones in the continuing political warfare against Georgia. For their part, leaders in Tskhinvali threaten to escalate the hostilities deeper inside Georgian territory, using “their own forces,” that is, a proxy war. “We will force [the Georgians] out from the conflict zone ourselves. I state once again that we have the necessary troops and equipment [sil i sredstv] to do this,” the South Ossetian “president” Eduard Kokoity warned.....