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Thread: Georgia's South Ossetia Conflict - Political Commentary

  1. #201
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fuchs View Post
    That's actually the best question.

    I was searching this thread with the search function backwards for "turk" and only found references to Turkey as location for pipelines and once in the context of bases. Finally, I found this question.
    Turkey hasn't taken a clear position yet, in part because its torn between the two sides fora variety of strategic, diplomatic, and economic reasons, and in part because the cabinet has been on break/holiday.

    I suspect Moscow cares far more about the French, UK, and German reaction than the Turks--its not an issue that the Turks would apply leverage over, given their broader interests.

  2. #202
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    Default Turkish Diplomacy

    Before citing some refs to Turkey, this is a map showing the pre-1992 autonomous regions in the Caucasus.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Caucasiamapussr.gif

    ---------------------------------
    Articles from EDM (1st 3 are background)

    LUKOIL AND TURKEY
    By John C. K. Daly
    Wednesday, August 6, 2008
    As Europe frets over the political implications of Gazprom’s increasing presence in the EU market, another Russian energy company has quietly made an inroad into hydrocarbon-starved Turkey.
    .....
    For Ankara, however, the sale merits careful consideration. Turkey already receives 65 percent of its natural gas exports from Russia, and as recently as last winter Gazprom cut supplies, forcing Ankara to dip into its stored reserves (EDM, January 23). In the event of rising tension between Moscow and Ankara, whether political or something as simple as a pricing dispute, LUKoil’s new acquisitions, if they became political pawns, could affect everything from heating to “trains, planes and automobiles.” All Ankara can do at the moment is wonder whether the allure of the free market will trump the siren song emanating from the Kremlin. As Russia’s new president was formerly chairman of Gazprom’s board of directors, it seems likely that the Kremlin will follow Alekperov’s acquisition with more than passing interest. .....
    http://www.jamestown.org/edm/article...cle_id=2373293

    TURKEY COOPERATES WITH KOREA TO DEVELOP A NATIONAL MAIN BATTLE TANK
    By Saban Kardas
    Thursday, August 7, 2008
    Turkey continues to announce new armament programs that involve the development and production of a “Turkish brand” of major weapons systems. .... Eventually, Turkey plans to replace all its MBTs, as many 1,000, which will become obsolete in the next few decades (Hurriyet, Sabah and Radikal, July 30). .....
    http://www.jamestown.org/edm/article...cle_id=2373297

    EXPLOSION RAISES QUESTIONS ABOUT THE SECURITY OF THE BTC PIPELINE
    By Gareth Jenkins
    Friday, August 8, 2008
    On August 5 there was an explosion and subsequent fire on a section of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline running through eastern Turkey, resulting in the flow of oil through the pipeline being halted. .... On August 8 officials from Turkey’s state-owned Turkish Pipeline Company (BOTAS) predicted that it would take another 10-14 days for the pipeline to be repaired, with some forecasting that it could be as much as three months before the pipeline was once again operating normally (Today’s Zaman, August 8). ......
    http://www.jamestown.org/edm/article...cle_id=2373301

    TURKEY CAUGHT IN A DILEMMA OVER SOUTH OSSETIA
    By Gareth Jenkins
    Monday, August 11, 2008
    The outbreak of fighting between Georgia and Russia over South Ossetia has demonstrated the cost of Ankara’s often confused attempt at achieving a balance between becoming a regional player in the Caucasus and the need to maintain a working relationship with Moscow.
    .....
    The outbreak of fighting on August 7 caught Turkey completely unprepared. ...
    [what follows is a 3 paragraph description of various inconsistent actions by Erdogan and Putin’s refusal to speak with him] ....
    Turkish commentators have been unanimous in attributing Putin’s refusal to speak with Erdogan to Russian fury over Turkish military aid to Georgia, noting that Russia’s stranglehold over Turkey’s supplies of natural gas mean that it can afford simply to ignore any Turkish protests over Russian policy in the Caucasus (Hurriyet, Radikal, Yeni Safak, Zaman, August 11).....
    http://www.jamestown.org/edm/article...cle_id=2373305

    TURKEY AND THE PROBLEMS WITH THE BTC
    By John C. K. Daly
    Wednesday, August 13, 2008
    With Western eyes fixed on the clash between Russia and Georgia over the disputed enclaves of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, the conflict is affecting neighboring countries’ oil shipments, particularly Azerbaijan and transit nation Turkey.
    .....
    Quite aside from concerns about restoring tranquility in the Caucasus, Turkey has deep fiscal concerns impelling it to seek a quick end to the conflict. On August 11 Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili telephoned Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan seeking his assistance in ending the clash (Hurriyet, August 12). The same day Erdogan spoke with UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon to discuss the armed confrontation, urging the UN to take initiatives to end the clash and restore peace and stability to the Caucasus (Sabah, August 12). Erdogan also proposed establishing a Caucasus alliance to ensure peace and stability in the region. It would include Caucasian nations along with the United States, the EU and Russia. "Turkey is ready to play a key role in making this alliance a reality. But this idea needs to be discussed under UN auspices to become practicable," he said.
    .....
    Quite aside from diplomatic concerns, for Turkey, which imports 90 percent of its energy needs and 65 percent of its natural gas from Gazprom, the sooner the dispute is resolved the better, so it can begin again to collect transit revenues to pay Moscow’s ever-rising energy bills.
    http://www.jamestown.org/edm/article...cle_id=2373313

    DEVILS AND DETAILS: AHMADINEJAD VISITS TURKEY
    By Gareth Jenkins
    Thursday, August 14, 2008
    ......
    A similar naivety can be seen in Erdogan’s recent peace initiative in the Caucasus. ...
    [what follows is a paragraph description of Erdogan's efforts at a Caucasian Pact - see prec. ref.] ....
    Neither the newspaper nor Erdogan appeared to realize that while all efforts to end the bloodshed were welcome, the whole point of Moscow’s fierce military response to Georgia’s attempt to regain control of South Ossetia was to demonstrate Russia’s hegemony in its “near abroad.” Moscow is unlikely to have any desire to dilute its authority through a pact, particularly one that brings the United States and the EU into the region.

    Nor did Erdogan appear to be aware that if the AKP were serious about Turkey acceding to the EU, he needed to try to ensure that Turkey’s foreign policies were coordinated with, or at least complementary to, those of the EU. ....
    http://www.jamestown.org/edm/article...cle_id=2373317

    Seems that, so far, Turkish diplomacy has not reached 1st base.

  3. #203
    Council Member Fuchs's Avatar
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    Sorry, but that "90% energy needs" is not realistic. It casts a strong shadow on the whole source.
    According to CIA world factbook, Turkey produces already about 6% of its crude oil consumption itself.

    That would leave about 4% for the complete coal consumption and iol/gas imports from other countries.

    It looks to me as if the author forgot to substract the exports; Turkey is a transit country for oil & gas, after all.

  4. #204
    Council Member Ken White's Avatar
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    Default Is it possible the author got too carried away with

    form over function?

    "..which imports 90 percent of its energy needs and 65 percent of its natural gas from Gazprom..."

    correct English as written but if you add a comma or a semi colon where it shouldn't be technically and perhaps should be practically speaking...

    "which imports 90 percent of its energy needs; and 65 percent of its natural gas from Gazprom..."

    then he's saying Turkey imports 90% of it's total energy needs of which 65% (other sources say 67%) of it's natural gas imports come from Gazprom.

    Dunno

  5. #205
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    Default No, Fuchs,

    evidence doesn't work that way.

    Even if you prove beyond a reasonable doubt that Turkey does not import 90% of its energy needs (that figured in BTUs or equivalent, not bcm), that disproves only that statement.

    That proof does not affect any of the other statements made in that article, or in the other articles. You have to go after them one by one.

    Would think you'd want to go after Gazprom supplying 65% of natural gas consumption; or prove that Putin did eagerly talk to Erdogan; or that Ivan readily agreed to the Caucasian Alliance; etc., etc. ...

    Hmm ...

    Gazprom Permits Shell to Supply Gas to Turkish Market
    Cagri OCAL
    Sunday , 04 March 2007
    This commentary is from USAK's Energy Review Newsletter
    ......
    “Under the contract, Gazprom will supply 250 mcm of gas annually to Shell Enerji A.Þ. in the period up to 2021”, the news release said. Total natural gas sale to Turkey will be 3.75 bcm and present value of this sale is approximately $1 billion. (Cumhuriyet) Russia and Turkey established a gas partnership in 1984. Since 1984, Russia supplied a total of 138.7 bcm of natural gas to Turkey. Supplies from Russia followed an increasing trend in the past 22 years period and reached all-time high level of 20 bcm in 2006. Russian natural gas currently accounts for 65% of Turkey's gas imports. (The New Anatolian)
    http://www.turkishweekly.net/comments.php?id=2516
    http://www.turkishweekly.net/energyr...rgyReview9.pdf'

    -----------------------------------
    For anyone interested in this boring topic, here are the CIA stats as of tonite's viewing. I should think that the stats are quite different as of 2007-2008.

    https://www.cia.gov/library/publicat...k/geos/tu.html

    Natural gas - production:
    860.3 million cu m (2005 est.)
    Natural gas - consumption:
    26.25 billion cu m (2005 est.)
    Natural gas - exports:
    0 cu m (2005 est.)
    Natural gas - imports:
    25.48 billion cu m (2005)

    Oil - production:
    45,460 bbl/day (2005 est.)
    Oil - consumption:
    660,800 bbl/day (2005 est.)
    Oil - exports:
    112,600 bbl/day (2004)
    Oil - imports:
    724,400 bbl/day (2004)

    Interesting. No nat gas exports; and is Turkey-produced oil used in Turkey or exported or both. Strange.

    ---------------------------------
    BTW: Don't care if you do disprove every sentence in the articles, since they ain't written by me. In that case, we would have advanced the search for truth - as well as for mom and apple pie.

    Whole bunch of Russian Turkish nat gas stuff; e.g., an index at

    http://www.rpi-inc.ru/pdf/SEE_Gas_TOC.pdf

    and more files at

    http://www.rpi-inc.ru/pdf/

    looks borinnnggg......

  6. #206
    Council Member AmericanPride's Avatar
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    Just FYI, the EIA agrees with White. Sorry Fuchs.

    http://www.eia.doe.gov/cabs/Turkey/Background.html

    There's also some wonderfully colored graphs.
    When I am weaker than you, I ask you for freedom because that is according to your principles; when I am stronger than you, I take away your freedom because that is according to my principles. - Louis Veuillot

  7. #207
    Council Member Fuchs's Avatar
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    conversions: http://www.neb.gc.ca/clf-nsi/rnrgynf...ng.html#a_s_04

    eia:

    2004: 769 bcf natural gas net import, 24 bcf own production
    769 bcf = 808 PJ (petajoule iirc)

    2004: 19 Million short tons of coal net import, 51 Mst own production
    about 473 PJ and 1271 PJ respectively


    I don't have the time to do this for electricity (lots of water energy) or oil right now, but the short story is that
    Quite aside from diplomatic concerns, for Turkey, which imports 90 percent of its energy needs and 65 percent of its natural gas from Gazprom
    cannot be right at all.
    Gazprom does not supply all that coal to Turkey. "90%" is wrong.

    I was a bit too tired when I miscalculated the natural gas thing yesterday, though.

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    This is the guy whose opinion I trust. He has been dealing with this region for a bretty long time.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisf...8/georgia.nato

    His nest is here. Tons of material.

    http://www.silkroadstudies.org/new/

  9. #209
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    British "Economist."

    The war in Georgia

    Russia resurgent
    Aug 14th 2008
    From The Economist print edition

    The war in Georgia is a victory for Russia. The West’s options are limited, but it needs to pursue them firmly
    http://www.economist.com/opinion/dis...ry_ID=11920701

  10. #210
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    The same Economist article says

    Yet the hard truth, for Georgians and others, is that pleas for military backing from the West in any confrontation with Russia are unlikely to be heeded. The Americans gave Mr Saakashvili token help when they transported Georgian troops home from Iraq (where 2,000 of them made up the third-largest allied contingent). And they have now sent in humanitarian aid in military aircraft and ships. But nobody is willing to risk a wider war with Russia over its claimed near-abroad. Among Russia’s immediate neighbours, only the Baltic states, which slipped into NATO when Russia was weak, can claim such protection.
    Most importantly, although Mr Saakashvili’s foolishness makes admitting Georgia harder, Russia’s incursion should not delay plans to let Ukraine and Georgia into NATO. Russia’s aggression will make these countries, and others, keener than ever on joining. The worst outcome of this war would be for the West to allow Russia a veto over any sovereign country’s membership of either NATO or the EU.
    Longer article from the same issue.

    The war in Georgia has demonstrated convincingly who is in charge in Russia. Just as the war in Chechnya helped Mr Putin’s rise to power in 1999, the war in Georgia may now keep him in power for years to come. As Lilia Shevtsova of the Carnegie Moscow Centre argues, if Mr Medvedev still had a chance to preside over a period of liberalisation of Russia, this opportunity is now gone. The war in Georgia will make Russia more isolated. Worst of all, it will further corrode the already weak moral fabric of Russian society, making it more aggressive and nationalistic. The country has been heading in the direction of an authoritarian, nationalistic, corporatist state for some time. The war with Georgia could tip it over the edge.
    http://www.economist.com/world/europ...ry_id=11920992

  11. #211
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    Quote Originally Posted by kaur View Post
    This is the guy whose opinion I trust. He has been dealing with this region for a bretty long time.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisf...8/georgia.nato
    "The Kremlin's blatant aggression puts at stake not only the future of the most progressive state in the former Soviet Union, (...)"

    Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Ukraine?

  12. #212
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    I hope no one seriously thought that Little Dimitry really had a chance to reform Russia. He's not from the shoulder-stripe inner circle of Putin's power base, and his entire career has been dependent upon Vlad. Any kind of power struggle within the Kremlin would probably result in D's premature departure from the living. Also consider that in a political culture in which strength is the only symbol of power, the military's continued offensives despite D's agreement to a cease-fire speaks to the powerlessness of his position.

    Putin is not going to be drawn out through confrontation and Cold War rhetoric. That simply plays into his hands and the state-nationalist ideology of his fellow power brokers. Maybe an "invitation" to Russia for NATO membership can dislodge them long enough to slip in Ukraine?
    When I am weaker than you, I ask you for freedom because that is according to your principles; when I am stronger than you, I take away your freedom because that is according to my principles. - Louis Veuillot

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    Default Your Turkeys Come Home to Roost ?

    from AmericanPride
    There's also some wonderfully colored graphs
    Very good site - separate articles on Oil, Natural Gas, Coal & Electricity are worth reading.

    Found coal stats elsewhere last nite (since they weren't on CIA page). Obvious from inspection of coal stats (without doing BTU calcs) that "90% of total energy usage imported" was not correct. So, I implicitly conceded the point. I suppose the author was thinking 90% of petro (oil & gas) usage is imported - which is ball park (again by inspection, not calcs).

    All of this trivia moves away from the main issue of what Turkey's future role will be. Ir certainly is a player - and perhaps the most important player (IMO) - not so much Caucasus, but in northern SW Asia.

    from AmericanPride
    Maybe an "invitation" to Russia for NATO membership can dislodge them long enough to slip in Ukraine?
    Interesting contrarian theory - that is, contrary to the Russian policy favored by Bush I, Clinton & Bush II. One possible result of that policy (other factors also present) could be to re-create the Russian-Chinese alliance of my youth. Uncle Joe & Mao would like that.

  14. #214
    Council Member AmericanPride's Avatar
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    One possible result of that policy (other factors also present) could be to re-create the Russian-Chinese alliance
    That would be a disaster. But I do not think that Russia and China will be loving partners any time soon. China is like the red-headed step child that's coming of age and Russia is the alcoholic father that's powerless to stop his step daughter's promiscuity with the neighborhood jock (who could that be.....?) that she hopes to use to get out of their podunk hamlet. The alcoholic father hates the jock because he has an opportunity for that professional career that the father lost when he was drafted for Vietnam.
    When I am weaker than you, I ask you for freedom because that is according to your principles; when I am stronger than you, I take away your freedom because that is according to my principles. - Louis Veuillot

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    Default Yup

    from AmericanPride
    That would be a disaster.
    Agreed.

    I got lost in the analogy; but if it works for you - 5x5.

  16. #216
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    After reading some of the Baltic State's defense plans, I've come to the conclusion that they have a military to support the US and NATO, and generally hope the Russians will not destroy too much during an invasion. None of these States (and Georgia) had/have anything ready for a serious territorial defense. This might be the right thing to do? If you know you'll be destroyed, it may not be worth it?

    If this is the case, they need some sort of strategy once they're occupied? They could:

    1) Lay in the street and have huge protests so military equipment won't be able to move?

    2) Everyone can refuse to go to work or do anything the Russians say?

    3) Socialize all citizens to fight to the death regardless of potential destruction?
    "Politics are too important to leave to the politicians"

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    In an interview published in today’s “Kommersant,” South Ossetian leader Eduard Kokoity said that his people and Russian forces behind them had driven the ethnic Georgians who had been living there out and would not allow them to return, although he said his government would investigate and punish cases of burning and looting.
    Kokoity’s words are a rare public acknowledgement by an official that he and the forces under his command or with whom he is working are engaging in what can only be called ethnic cleansing, a form of genocide (http://www.kommersant.ru/doc.aspx?fr...docsid=1011783).
    Arguing that in most of what had been “Russian enclaves” in South Ossetia, there were no ethnic Georgians left by the time of the conflict, Kokoity said that “where they still remained, we, unlike the forces of Georgia offered them a corridor and gave the peaceful population the chance to leave.”
    But however that might be, he added, “we do not intend to allow” them back because there are “more than 18,000 Ossetian refugees from Georgia” in North Ossetia. We need them to return to South Ossetia,” and apparently, to the places left vacant by the more than 23,000 ethnic Georgians who have been driven out of that region.
    http://windowoneurasia.blogspot.com/...-ossetias.html

    Aside from the avoidable loss of innocent life, one the most depressing things about the past few days is the lack of intellectual honesty on display. Rather than examine motive and facts on the ground, both Russians and Georgians have chosen to extract what they wish from the overall picture and used it to fit their pre-existing nationalist ideologies. Russia apologists and Russophobes everywhere have all weighed in over the last few days, conveniently ignoring atrocities committed by the 'other side'. Hypocrisy is prevalent on both sides too and worse still, the outrageous use of the word 'genocide' - not even remotely applicable to this dirty little war.


    But whatever happens now in the Caucasus, relations between Russia and the West (and Russia's westward-inclined neighbours) must surely, from this moment on, be re-evaluated by all.
    http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/media...ussia_georgia/

  18. #218
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    Default Russian-Finnish "War Games"

    from kaur
    3. About NATO/US military plans by RAND.
    Chap 5 interested me on 2 points: posited 30-day warning period of Russian attack; and the military capabilities in the Leningrad military district.

    Have you run into any gaming scenario for a 1 on 1 Russian attack on Finland ?

    I haven't, but I may well be looking in the wrong places.

    Thanx ahead if you can help.

  19. #219
    Council Member Stan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jmm99 View Post
    Chap 5 interested me on 2 points: posited 30-day warning period of Russian attack; and the military capabilities in the Leningrad military district.

    Have you run into any gaming scenario for a 1 on 1 Russian attack on Finland ?

    I haven't, but I may well be looking in the wrong places.

    Thanx ahead if you can help.
    Here's one of many scenarios going around as Finland joins the former soviet Republics -- joining NATO -- a possibility which could not be viewed impassively. As well as being perceived as an affront and potential threat, it would also present the opportunities of being able to teach others lessons and to set default positions.

    Future active measures could include (once again) obstruction of ports, shipping lanes and off-shore facilities; over flights, airspace denial and harassment of civil aviation; disruption of freight and transportation; freezing foreign investments and business in Russia; economic, energy and cyber campaigns; symbolic incursions onto islands or across borders; and political and diplomatic threats against individual countries.

    Hat tips to Bruce Jones.
    If you want to blend in, take the bus

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    Default Nato ?

    from Stan
    as Finland joins the former soviet Republics -- joining NATO -- a possibility which could not be viewed impassively
    NATO and other alliances have been pushed by more than one leading politician - mutta, the leading political parties have not adopted that as a formal plarform item + about 2/3 of Finns are adverse.

    Or, have I missed something since Mar 2008 - which is quite possible.

    Finnish security policy: No Joy, but Finland Joins Nato Force
    By Kyösti Karvonen
    .....
    Finland is ready to contribute to Nato Response Force (NRF), but only in a supplementary role. The painful compromise was reached after a long vacillation, just in time before Nato's Bucharest Summit, writes Kyösti Karvonen, Managing Editor of newspaper Kaleva.
    http://virtual.finland.fi/netcomm/ne...readPosition=4

    also

    http://formin.finland.fi/Public/defa...&culture=en-US
    http://www.mil.fi/perustietoa/julkai.../chapter_9.dsp
    http://www.mil.fi/perustietoa/julkai.../chapter_0.dsp

    Georgia may change that - mutta, which way will that cut is another question. We shall see.

    Finland has helped Estonia - good to help cousins.

    Choke off Gulf of Finland sounds good in theory. Last time we were able to do that was before Charlie the Great screwed everything up in the Great Northern War - and we still remember the consequent Great Wrath.

    Sorry to be a little gloomy here.

    Kiitos paljon.
    Last edited by jmm99; 08-17-2008 at 06:24 PM.

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