Georgia's South Ossetia Conflict - Political Commentary

[jmm99]

the kingdoms were lost - to the Georgians. At least, that now seems the French position on the "language difficulties" of the Georgian cease fire agreement.

Washington Times
Cease-fire has 'translation problem'
Russia uses miscue to keep troop 'buffer zones'
Sunday, September 7, 2008
AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE
AVIGNON, France
French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner on Saturday admitted that "a translation problem" had contributed to differences in interpreting a Russia-Georgia peace plan.
.....
The main linguistic glitch was in a passage in the Russian version that spoke of security "for South Ossetia and Abkhazia," whereas the English version spoke of security "in" the two areas.......

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/...ation-problem/

[kaur]

RUSSIANS DOUBT OBJECTIVITY OF OFFICIAL MEDIA WHILE SHARING THEIR SENTIMENTS

A national poll conducted by the independent Levada Center over August 15-22 – that is, in the immediate wake of the five-day Russo-Georgian war – found a high degree of anti-Western and particularly anti-American sentiment. A total of 75 percent of the respondents stated that Russian-American relations were to one degree or another not good, with 39 percent saying relations were “chilly,” 28 percent saying relations were “strained,” and eight percent saying relations were “hostile.”

http://www.jamestown.org/edm/article...cle_id=2373349

There were very tense moments,” Reuters reported as saying one of the senior officials in Sarkozy’s office. Once, when President Medvedev wasn’t in the room, the parties clashed about the pre-conflict positions to the extent that Sarkozy got up and said: “We’re going. This is not negotiable.” Medvedev was called back and eased the tension without interrupting the session and calling Vladimir Putin, the source specified.

http://www.kommersant.com/p-13171/Ge...kozy_Medvedev/

This episode reminds me negotiations tactics that was used in 1939 by Soviet Union against Estonian delegation. Molotov and Stalin were playing similar good cop - bad cop game. In the end they enforced military bases to Estonia. Finns didn't give up and headed to Winter war.

[jmm99]

on Georgia, NATO, the Baltic States, Finland and Sweden.

Ran into this article by Lind:

September 9, 2008
Defending the Baltics
by William S. Lind

I recently returned from Estonia and the Baltic Defense College, where the Russian counterattack on Georgia had left a residual case of nerves. ...
....
... There could be benefit for all concerned in a union of the Baltic states and Finland under the Swedish crown, all retaining complete domestic autonomy but united for defense and foreign policy, but it is probably only historians who can see the potential. ....
....
There is a model that would work for the Baltic states and other small countries: the Iraqi model. Instead of creating a toy army, they should plan an Iraq-style insurgency against any occupier. This requires a universal militia like Switzerland's, where every male citizen knows how to shoot and how to build and emplace IEDs and where weapons and explosives are cached all over the country. In the Baltics, this would be a rural rather than an urban defense: Russia could take the cities but not the countryside. The "Forest Brothers" kept up just such a resistance to the Soviet presence well into the 1950s. ....

http://www.antiwar.com/lind/?articleid=13432

Comments by Stan, K and anyone else would be appreciated.

[reed11b]

My immediate response is; this would deter Russian aggression how exactly?
Reed

[jmm99]

from reed
this would deter Russian aggression how exactly?

it would involve adoption of the "Paasikivi Defense Doctrine" - shoot from behind every tree, across every frozen swamp, etc. - untill all of us are dead. And communication of that resolve to the Main Adversary. The other side of the coin is adoption of the "Paasikivi Foreign Policy" - don't bearbait.

It worked with Stalin - so, one historic example. Valid now or in the future - my crystal ball is not that educated.

As to the rest of the equation (policy <> strategy <> operations <> tactics), that is why I thought comments by people with military experience would be helpful.

Regards,

Mike

[Stan]

Hey Mike !

on Georgia, NATO, the Baltic States, Finland and Sweden.

Ran into this article by Lind:

http://www.antiwar.com/lind/?articleid=13432

Comments by Stan, K and anyone else would be appreciated.

Overall, I enjoyed the article and even have some dealings with the author and can at the very least, appreciate where he's coming from.

Personally, I think the Swiss model fits best considering Estonia's current military strength, past successes with Russian forces, and Estonia's favorable terrain (or, the pathetic inability of Russian soldiers to engage sneaky snipers in the forest ).

I totally disagree that an Iraqi model fits herein. The Balts are not Barbarians nor are they suicidal. Not the right cookie cutter this time.

Estonia does not have the so called toy army albeit relatively small. Our current President is no fool and plays his hand well. Strike at the "3 fat pigs", but carefully. Nordstream is an easy target, but this game won't last much longer.

I agree with Mr. Lind. PFP, MAP and NATO games make not a Nation prepared for war with 10:1 odds. I like what we're doing now with air surveillance jets, war games, and the political rhetoric (in unison with our neighbors).

I realize this advice is unpalatable to the Baltic peoples. Half a century of Soviet occupation has left a residue of hatred for all things Russian. But grand strategy must be based on facts and reason, not emotion. The most important fact is geography. Geography dictates that the Baltic states must accommodate Russian interests, whether they want to or not. If they refuse, then the recent example of Georgia may have more relevance than anyone would wish.

I disagree. The very reason patriotic Balts continue to fight is because the outcome is unpalatable and no one wants these folks back on our land, ever. Economically speaking, yes, it would be wise to consider our Eastern trading partner. But, to accommodate their interests before our own is pure BS and the heck with the Swedish Crown and Finnish models of yesteryear. I remain skeptical about their overall intentions and this Bravo Sierra surrounding gas and oil pipelines.

My immediate response is; this would deter Russian aggression how exactly?
Reed

It will not for one single second. It will however slow them down and make them think (which, may not be a good thing)

Regards, Stan

[Ron Humphrey]

It will not for one single second. It will however slow them down and make them think (which, may not be a good thing)

Regards, Stan

It's often beneficial to have the larger opponents momentum high for a variety of reasons

[Elevation]

I found this interesting article in the Boston Herald:

http://news.bostonherald.com/news/na...nc#articleFull

Its starting to look like the US policy of boosting countries right on Russia's border is starting to look like a bad move. The idea of openly aiding nations like Georgia and the Baltic states seems like it may have been more trouble then its worth. All it does is piss off Russia and is of very little benefit to the US economically or militarily.

It also looks like US influence in this situation is diminished because we really don't have much of a moral plane to hang on complaining about other states invading for economic needs.

Finally, I don't think a huge clandestine aid campaign to help the Georgians would work like it did back in the 80s in Afghanistan, due to the enormous growth of the 24 hour media. What could have been done in secret before would be documented by about 50 bloggers the second a single box of US weapons gets opened.

[Stan]

Better late than never with current news releases from this side of the Black Sea. I hope to get some real releases and imagery smokin' today and will post as they become available. The Russian press on the other hand was quick to point out that Estonia sent in a special forces team

6 September - Five Estonian explosive ordnance disposal (EOD) specialists departed for Georgia on a humanitarian mission to help locate and disarm unexploded explosive devices in the conflict areas.
The team, which is being led by Margus Kurvits, chief of the EOD Centre at the Estonian Rescue Board, is flying to Georgia via Prague. The exact area where the Estonians will work will become known once they've arrived in Georgia.
"Essentially they will be doing the same thing they do in Estonia, that is, searching for and rendering harmless explosive devices left behind from the war," spokesperson Beata Perens said.
Under current plans the team will stay in Georgia for three weeks.

[kaur]

The U.S. Senate and House of Representatives held hearings on the recent war in Georgia. During the debates high-ranking State Department and Pentagon officials actually admitted that it was Tbilisi that started the hostilities attacking South Ossetia. This said, Washington virtually acknowledged the chronology Russia regards real. However, it would be untimely for Moscow to triumph. American military and diplomats still consider Russia’s reaction “disproportionate” calling on to counter the Kremlin’s “imperial reach”.

http://www.kommersant.com/p1024013/r...s_in_Congress/

There is little scandal in Russia. Russian official MOD newspaper "Red Star" published 1 article 11.09. There is interview with 1 Russian officer, who says that his company from 58th army was in South Ossetia already 07.08. This week this article has disappeared form "Red Star" site, ... but Google has it Both links have articles in Russian.

http://newsru.com/russia/15sep2008/udaleno.html

http://74.125.39.104/search?q=cache:...3_09/2_03.html

[kaur]

In Wake of Georgian War, Russian Media Feel Heat

By Philip P. Pan
Washington Post Foreign Service
Monday, September 15, 2008;

At the height of the crisis over Russia's invasion of Georgia last month, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin summoned the top executives of his nation's most influential newspapers and broadcasters to a private meeting in the Black Sea resort of Sochi.

The Kremlin controls much of the Russian media, and Putin occasionally meets with friendly groups of senior journalists to answer questions and guide news coverage. On Aug. 29, though, for the first time in five years, he also invited the editor in chief of Echo Moskvy, the only national radio station that routinely broadcasts opposition voices.

For several minutes, according to people who attended the session or were briefed about it, Putin berated the editor in front of his peers, criticizing Echo's coverage of the war with Georgia and reading from a dossier of transcripts to point out what he considered errors.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...091402249.html

[Stan]

I hope to get some real releases and imagery smokin' today and will post as they become available.

Estonian Deminers have cleared 3 Georgian villages

Translation follows

The Rescue Board's EOD Center 5-man team on a humanitarian mission to Georgia, have completed clearing the Marneuli air base and two local villages of UXO. According to the Rescue Board's press representative, Estonian deminers destoryed 11 UXO (large aerial delivery ordnance).

Their first base camp was in the town of Marneuli with their initial assignment to clear and destroy UXO at the air base and surrounding villages of Tsereteli and Ahali Dioknisi. By the end of last week they had also cleared and destroyed UXO in the village of Vasiani.

The destroyed UXO were primarily aerial delivery ordnance between 250 and 1,500 kg.

The EOD Center's 5-man team departed on their humanitarian mission on the 6th of September with an assignment to clear civilian areas and to assist Georgia Engineers with demining.

In addition, Estonian EOD will assist the Georgians with creating a demining system and database. The mission is planned to last 3 weeks.

Enjoy the pics... To Russia with love

[jmm99]

from above
The destroyed UXO were primarily aerial delivery ordnance between 250 and 1,500 kg.

Good job, Stan and poiat.

[Beelzebubalicious]

I read an interesting article in the IHT the other day by a former British foreign secretary, Malcolm Rifkind titled, "A Hot War is no way to Prevent a Cold One".

I do think that pushing NATO membership for Georgia and Ukraine now is problematic given what he states in this article - that the US and Western Europe are not likely to defend either one under Article 5. Might have thought about extending NATO membership to these countries before provoking Russia in Kosovo. Now, it looks a bit desperate.

Pouring money in to Georgia to rebuild it and support the democratic government is not a strong card. Hard to say whether Russia would be bold enough to do something overt in Ukraine, but I don't think they have to. Ukraine's government is falling apart and they'll do whatever it takes to get Pro-Russian politicians into power. It'll be another "democratic" election with an unfavorable result.

[Stan]

Good job, Stan and poiat.

Mike, at the rate the Russian ordnance is going as of today, more than 60 percent is UXO (or FORD for us Chevy drivers...Found on road dead)

[Stan]

I do think that pushing NATO membership for Georgia and Ukraine now is problematic given what he states in this article - that the US and Western Europe are not likely to defend either one under Article 5. Might have thought about extending NATO membership to these countries before provoking Russia in Kosovo. Now, it looks a bit desperate.

Pouring money in to Georgia to rebuild it and support the democratic government is not a strong card. Hard to say whether Russia would be bold enough to do something overt in Ukraine, but I don't think they have to. Ukraine's government is falling apart and they'll do whatever it takes to get Pro-Russian politicians into power. It'll be another "democratic" election with an unfavorable result.

Hey Eric !
Gotta agree with you. But, even if we started the pathetic MAP process this evening, neither could become a NATO member in under 5 years. Then there's that pesky Russian naval port agreement to 2015 or so.

Hmmm, will Putin clean up all that ordnance at the park behind your former residence

Regards, Stan

[jmm99]

(from article above cited)

As a result [of non-intervention], the guarantee of Article Five which Western European countries have relied on since the dawn of the Cold War would have been shattered, together with NATO's credibility.

The issue at hand, at least for political leaders in Western Europe, is not just whether it is in the interests of Georgia and Ukraine to join NATO. It is whether it is in the interests of existing members to admit them.

.... Extending Article Five to cover countries far more likely to invoke it than most current members would require major increases in defense expenditure.

but the question is what Europe wants to do with Article 5 of the NATO Treaty.

As I pointed out in the Ukraine thread, the "as it deems necessary" clause is an escape hatch for any government that does not want to engage in armed conflict. If the participants do not want to engage in armed conflict on behalf of the "least of their brothers", the Treaty becomes a dead letter.

In view of US worldwide commitments, deployment of substantial US ground forces is not in the cards. Will Europe develop an integrated armed force (not a composite plethora of separate forces, resembling the army of Xerses). ? Rifkind, in effect, says "nay".

The political problems of the EU, in moving toward a more federated system, also seem to reflect the underlying separatisms within Europe.

[jmm99]

Here's the first.

NY Times
By REUTERS
Published: September 17, 2008
Filed at 11:28 a.m. ET
MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russian President Dmitry Medvedev signed treaties with Georgia's South Ossetia and Abkhazia on Wednesday that commit Moscow to defend the breakaway regions from any Georgian attack. .....

http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/world...in&oref=slogin

and the second.

Recognise Georgian regions says Ukraine's Crimea
REUTERS
Reuters North American News Service
Sep 17, 2008 05:43 EST
SIMFEROPOL, Ukraine, Sept 17 (Reuters) - Parliament in Ukraine's Crimea peninsula, defying the country's pro-Western leaders, called on the national parliament to follow Russia's example and recognise Georgia's two separatist regions. ...
....
The local assembly voted 79 to 8 to urge Ukraine's national parliament to recognise the breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. ....

http://wiredispatch.com/news/?id=355278

Neither event is particularly earth-shaking - and few will be surprised. The second may be more evidence of the disconnect between politicians in the Ukraine and the poll results (reported elsewhere in the thread on the Ukraine).

[Stan]

The biggest threat to the Baltic states right now is not military, but psychological, as questions that should be ludicrous are treated seriously.

Keep calm and carry on...

THE Baltic states are full members of NATO. In theory, that means they need worry about external threats no more than any other NATO member. If they come under threat from, say, Russia, they are entitled to exactly the same protection under Article IV (political support) and Article V (military support) as any other country in the alliance.

But viewed from Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania it doesn’t quite feel that way. Baltic officials have been privately and semi-publicly urging NATO to increase its visible presence in the Baltic states, both in terms of planes, ships and soldiers, and through high-profile visits. If the response is cool, they question the alliance’s resolve.

All that is going to change, slowly. NATO’s “Military Committee 161,” which deals with threat assessment, will shortly consider how to rejig the bureaucratic basis for military planning. Other work is already under way.

But there is little to be gained, and much to be lost, by panicky talk in the Baltics about the need for more NATO support. It creates the potentially dangerous impression that the Baltic states are “lite” members of NATO.

The alliance’s secretary-general, Jaap de Hoop Scheffer, said rightly last week in Riga ... every Latvian military base was a NATO base, he noted.

[jmm99]

(from Stan's source)
The book, by a Finnish author called Johan Bäckman, says that as a result of this, Estonia will be part of the Russian Federation within ten years.

Some Finnish comments (only the rational ones) on Dr. Bäckman:

He has an 'Institute' of his own in St. Petersburg and he is publishing there books and newspaper articles about the evil deeds of Finland. There is a couple of other similar cases, too. Possibly they are bitter to Finland because their genius has not been acknowledged. At least Bäckman seems to be getting some support from Russia.
.....
Johan Bäckman is a member of the young generation of Finnish revisionist historians. He is a specialist on organized crime in Russia and Estonia.
.....
This fellow has quite the little propaganda mill....
.....
I just wonder what Russia is gaining from his books. They are mostly published in Finnish, and only a handfull of people here is interested in them.
....
The book is being released in Estonia at the Tallinn military cemetery (!) on September 22nd at 12.00, and there seem to be plans to publish it in Estonian, Russian and English as well. As to what Russia gains -- the delightful thing about Kremlin prop has always been how *bad* it is. Even when they pull out all stops and coach their best English-speakers, as they did for the "genocide" show in Ossetia, no reasonable person not already in their camp could swallow the stuff.

All found here

http://groups.google.com/group/soc.c...75830?lnk=raot

Dr. Bäckman's Wiki bio (in Finnish) at

http://fi.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johan_B%C3%A4ckman

But, the best seems here, which has a back and forth with Dr. Bäckman,

in the original:

http://pronssisoturi.blogspot.com/

and in the Google translation here:

http://translate.google.com/translat...gspot%2ecom%2f

And, have to love the bear cartoon - which takes us back to the days of Otto Wille Kuusinen, who often wrote and acted as the "Finnish hand" of the Russians.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Otto_Kuusinen