Economic Warfare Strategy

[Granite_State]

Heh, I used some of Robb's work on this subject for a recent Master's paper.

The conservative estimate was $80B, with $500B being the highest figure.

I think he's on to something - the costs of waging high tech war, whether conventional or not, is becoming unsustainable even for us. If AQ or other terror groups continue to attack us with cost/benefit ratios similar to 9/11, then we are in trouble.

The good news is that these kinds of attacks are exceedingly rare, and there are very few that I can imagine that would have the same impact as the 9/11attacks.

What I have trouble understanding is why Al Qaeda hasn't used small scale terrorism to completely change our understanding of homeland security, and cause massive economic damage in the process. Car bombs in Houston, suicide bombers in shopping malls, another DC sniper, etc. Obviously they were severely damaged after we invaded Afghanistan. My understand of Robb is that he would talk about symbolic terrrorism, and how nothing except a nuke will top 9/11, and thus Al Qaeda can't live up to their own standards.

But given hysteria and paranoia that even semi-regular attacks on U.S. soil would have, and our open borders and easy access to guns, I still don't completely get why this hasn't happened. The ROI for these kind of attacks would be tremendous, in terms of the security measures citizens would demand, consumer confidence, versus the handful of men and weapons required.

And that's not even addressing the effect this would have on our freedoms, as Nichols said.

[Bill Moore]

Independent, non-related, small scale attacks would offer a huge ROI for our foes, and not surprisingly it is what their strategists wrote in their umbrella strategy. For whatever reason those opting into the movement have not pursued this strategy. This strategy would not only have an economic impact (not immediately, but the additional security costs, lost business because people are scared to go shopping would add up over time, and it would be boom for Amazon and other .coms, so maybe our economic model would simply adjust), but the second order effects are also significant. It would impact our freedom, because the State would have to apply harsher security measures, and it would create fissures in our society, with some demanding mass arrests and special rules for all Muslim Americans, which could push several thousand more fence sitters into the extremist camp. Of course this is a worst case scenario, and would only happen if we had an incompetent administration.

[Ski]

Granite

This is speculation and nothing more:

I think AQ has succeeded in drawing us into the Middle East and that was their organization's #1 goal from the start. It allowed for them to attack us with greater ease and support - they live in the region and don't need to send people into a foreign culture. If OBL really believes that he can bankrupt the US, he's done a good job for the last 6 years. We're spending well over half a trillion dollars a year on the military, and all of that is deficit spending. It'll have to be repaid by you, me, and our children one day.

I also think they haven't attacked here in the US because it would give political support to Bush and Co. I remember reading an article about the 04 elections, and there were a few quotes from CIA analysts stating that the Bush victory was exactly what OBL and AQ wanted. I suspect that they are waiting until after the 08 elections to see who is the next President, and then they will rewrite their strategies.

Finally, getting us into Iraq solidified the belief in many Arab's minds that the US is just another Western imperialist power, and we are to be resisted. It's one hell of a propaganda tool.

The SITTEMP that Bill Moore describes is also my biggest fear - but I think AQ is more than satisified with how the last 6 years have gone.

[Granite_State]

Granite

This is speculation and nothing more:

I think AQ has succeeded in drawing us into the Middle East and that was their organization's #1 goal from the start. It allowed for them to attack us with greater ease and support - they live in the region and don't need to send people into a foreign culture. If OBL really believes that he can bankrupt the US, he's done a good job for the last 6 years. We're spending well over half a trillion dollars a year on the military, and all of that is deficit spending. It'll have to be repaid by you, me, and our children one day.

I also think they haven't attacked here in the US because it would give political support to Bush and Co. I remember reading an article about the 04 elections, and there were a few quotes from CIA analysts stating that the Bush victory was exactly what OBL and AQ wanted. I suspect that they are waiting until after the 08 elections to see who is the next President, and then they will rewrite their strategies.

Finally, getting us into Iraq solidified the belief in many Arab's minds that the US is just another Western imperialist power, and we are to be resisted. It's one hell of a propaganda tool.

The SITTEMP that Bill Moore describes is also my biggest fear - but I think AQ is more than satisified with how the last 6 years have gone.

Your speculation makes perfect sense, Bin Laden wanted us to bleed ourselves dry like the Soviets, just predicted the wrong country. But as well as things have gone for Al Qaeda in Iraq (more their ideology than their fighters), doesn't it make sense to attack us at home at the same time?

And not sure I get your political point, if they wanted Bush to win, then attacking, and giving further support to this administration as a result, seems like the right play.

[bourbon]

The ROI for these kind of attacks would be tremendous, in terms of the security measures citizens would demand, consumer confidence, versus the handful of men and weapons required.

But will the effect be the same each time? Robb talks about the “diminishing returns of terrorism”, as in at what point does a target population get desensitized to the terror and the ROI decreases?

Related briefs of JRobb's: Why al Qaeda hasn't attacked the US since 9/11, TERRORIST DEATH-MARCH

[Bill Moore]

I think the ROI will remain consistent, or more likely increase over time as second and third order effects add up, while the psychological impact will decrease.

[Granite_State]

I think the ROI will remain consistent, or more likely increase over time as second and third order effects add up, while the psychological impact will decrease.

Agreed. I'd love to hear from anyone with extensive knowledge of IRA, Basque, or even Palestinian terrorism, bearing in mind that the first two are probably far smaller entities than Al Qaeda (sub 100 active Provisional IRA gunmen/terrorists at some points).

[Ski]

Granite

Politically, AQ doesn't need to waste scarce and critical terrorist teams to strike against the Bush Admin. They already have their desired results, and another attack against the US would just solidify American opinion against them.

The next President may withdraw from the Middle East or shift the fight into the intelligence, SOF and law enforcement arena. AQ would not have the luxury of fighting us in the ME, and the US would save hundreds of billions if not trillions by withdrawing from Iraq. It would negate OBL's grand strategy overnight.

[Bill Moore]

Robb posted a comment about this attack on his website today. This is a very traditional insurgent attack, and behold, they're not Islamists, but good ole leftists. I have no idea what the return on investment was from this attack yet, and we probably never will get accurate figures, but it should be a few million dollars worth of bang for the buck. Not only is there lost production, damage to the pipeline that needs repaired, but a huge investment in deploying security forces in an attempt to secure the pipeline(s).

http://www.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/americ...tml#cnnSTCText

Mexico vows to increase pipeline security after blasts
Story Highlights
There were explosions at a natural gas pipeline early Tuesday

A leftist rebel group has claimed responsibility

No oil exports were affected by the blast, officials said
MEXICO CITY, Mexico (Reuters)-- Mexico said on Tuesday it would tighten security at strategic installations after a shadowy leftist rebel group claimed responsibility for a rash of fuel pipeline explosions.

The four blasts shut down pipelines supplying natural gas, liquefied petroleum gas, crude oil and gasoline to the domestic market.

But none of the blasts affected oil exports and no injuries were reported, according to state oil monopoly Pemex.

[Tom Odom]

but good ole leftists.

Bill

You made me smile with that one

One might think all leftists are extinct; maybe they will mate with the Islamic extremists and we will get a new version of "Liberation Irhabists".

Tom

[Jedburgh]

...a very traditional insurgent attack, and behold, they're not Islamists, but good ole leftists....

India's Naxalites are another bunch of forgotten lefties out there still causing trouble. When India does make the terrorism news, it tends to be due to the Jihadis executing a high-profile bombing, but it is the Naxalites who are conducting sustained, persistent, attacks - like the one which killed 24 police officers today.

[Jedburgh]

...I have no idea what the return on investment was from this attack yet, and we probably never will get accurate figures, but it should be a few million dollars worth of bang for the buck. Not only is there lost production, damage to the pipeline that needs repaired, but a huge investment in deploying security forces in an attempt to secure the pipeline.....

Gas pipeline attack in Mexico forces factories to shut down

....At least a dozen companies including Honda Motor Co., Kellogg Co.'s, The Hershey Co., Nissan Motor Co., and Grupo Modelo SA were forced to suspend or scale back operations because of the lack of natural gas, the daily newspaper Excelsior reported. They said they faced millions of dollars in losses.

Vitro SAB, a Mexican company that makes glass containers, said the shutdown of two plants would cost it about $800,000 a day. Vitro said in a statement that it was increasing production at other plants in Mexico to minimize effects on customers.

Total business losses were being estimated at more than 70 million pesos ($6.4 million) a day, Excelsior reported, citing unidentified sources. The association representing Mexican industry said Wednesday it was looking into the extent of the explosions' financial impact....