I use the Failed States index for many purposes, not the least of which is the correlation between American military involvement and where a state is on the list.
We like going into ####holes. LOL!
Iraq, 'Sinking Fast,' Is Ranked No. 2 on List of Unstable States
19 June Washington Post - Iraq, 'Sinking Fast,' Is Ranked No. 2 on List of Unstable States by Robin Wright.
Iraq now ranks as the world's second most unstable country, ahead of war-ravaged or poverty-stricken nations such as Somalia, Zimbabwe, Ivory Coast, Congo, Afghanistan, Haiti and North Korea, according to the 2007 Failed States Index, issued yesterday by the Fund for Peace and Foreign Policy magazine.
Despite billions of dollars in foreign aid and the presence of more than 150,000 U.S. troops, Iraq has declined steadily over the past three years, according to the index. It ranked fourth last year, but its score dropped in almost all of the 12 political, economic, security and social indicators on which the index is based.
"The report tells us that Iraq is sinking fast," said Fund for Peace President Pauline Baker. "We believe it's reached the point of no return. We have recommended -- based on studies done every six months since the U.S. invasion -- that the administration face up to the reality that the only choices for Iraq are how and how violently it will break up."
In a parallel series of reports, the Fund for Peace, a research and advocacy group, suggests a policy of managed partition for Iraq...
I use the Failed States index for many purposes, not the least of which is the correlation between American military involvement and where a state is on the list.
We like going into ####holes. LOL!
"Speak English! said the Eaglet. "I don't know the meaning of half those long words, and what's more, I don't believe you do either!"
The Eaglet from Lewis Carroll's Alice in Wonderland
The Bird, the Cow, and the Cat
Funny I have I have lived and worked in one of those excreta states and traveled throughout 3 others. found that there is great comfort in the commonality of ####holes. You know what to expect. You know not to be disappointed. And you learn to keep your head down when the sky suddenly goes dark over your head and wind starts to blow. I am sure that my fellow outhouse companion, Stan, would agreeWe like going into ####holes. LOL!
Besides one should always remember the story about the bird, the cow, and the cat...
Seriously, the break up seems to me to be the most likely outcome as it did in 1990 when we said as much.
Best
Tom
The most inhospitable places in the world
Tom,Originally Posted by Tom Odom
Funny I have I have lived and worked in one of those excreta states and traveled throughout 3 others. found that there is great comfort in the commonality of ####holes. You know what to expect. You know not to be disappointed. And you learn to keep your head down when the sky suddenly goes dark over your head and wind starts to blow. I am sure that my fellow outhouse companion, Stan, would agree
Besides one should always remember the story about the bird, the cow, and the cat...
Seriously, the break up seems to me to be the most likely outcome as it did in 1990 when we said as much.
Best
Tom
I knew you were coming here today when I saw SWJED post this in the wee AM
You're correct as always, better to ponder in a load of Sierra and at least be switched on.
I noticed that some of our favorite waterin' holes are listed high. Good to know things have yet to change in more than a decade
Glad to see Rwanda graduated out of the top 20 !Here is a list of the top 20 most unstable countries indexed by Foreign Policy and the Fund for Peace: 1, Sudan; 2, Iraq; 3, Somalia; 4, Zimbabwe; 5, Chad; 6, Ivory Coast; 7, Democratic Republic of the Congo; 8, Afghanistan; 9, Guinea; 10, Central African Republic; 11, Haiti; 12, Pakistan; 13, North Korea; 14, Myanmar; 15, Uganda; 16, Bangladesh; 17, Nigeria; 18, Ethiopia; 19, Burundi; 20, Timor-Leste.
Tom
Indeed! I understand what you are stating - but it is interesting to see how involved we've become in these places.
I've been to #7 (Afghanistan), #36 (Egypt), #41 (Kyrgyzstan), and was a thunderstorm away from #12 (Pakistan).
"Speak English! said the Eaglet. "I don't know the meaning of half those long words, and what's more, I don't believe you do either!"
The Eaglet from Lewis Carroll's Alice in Wonderland
Is there any getting off this list?
11. Haiti
Haiti could have been on such a list since Toussaint L'Ouverture was breathing air. Once you get on this kind of list, is there any getting off it, I wonder? Haiti is on despite multiple U.S. military expeditions to "stabilize" the place.
No signature required, my handshake is good enough.
Hmmm seems I live in 2 (bold black) and worked/traveled in eight.Here is a list of the top 20 most unstable countries indexed by Foreign Policy and the Fund for Peace: 1, Sudan; 2, Iraq; 3, Somalia; 4, Zimbabwe; 5, Chad; 6, Ivory Coast; 7, Democratic Republic of the Congo; 8, Afghanistan; 9, Guinea; 10, Central African Republic; 11, Haiti; 12, Pakistan; 13, North Korea; 14, Myanmar; 15, Uganda; 16, Bangladesh; 17, Nigeria; 18, Ethiopia; 19, Burundi; 20, Timor-Leste.
Tacitus, check here regarding the Fund for Peace's 12 indicators.
These are neither exclusive nor exhaustive. You can add more measures, as appropriate.
Social Indicators
I-1. Mounting Demographic Pressures
I-2. Massive Movement of Refugees or Internally Displaced Persons creating
Complex Humanitarian Emergencies
I-3. Legacy of Vengeance-Seeking Group Grievance or Group Paranoia
I-4. Chronic and Sustained Human Flight
Economic Indicators
I-5. Uneven Economic Development along Group Lines
I-6. Sharp and/or Severe Economic Decline
Political Indicators
I-7. Criminalization and/or Delegitimization of the State
I-8. Progressive Deterioration of Public Services
I-9. Suspension or Arbitrary Application of the Rule of Law and Widespread
Violation of Human Rights
I-10. Security Apparatus Operates as a "State Within a State"
I-11. Rise of Factionalized Elites
I-12. Intervention of Other States or External Political Actors
Last edited by Stan; 06-19-2007 at 02:57 PM.
Out of 20, Tom...That's not bad at all
Look at it this way, at least you still have your hair and sanity
Well I have my sanity (sort of)Out of 20, Tom...That's not bad at all
Look at it this way, at least you still have your hair and sanity
On Haiti, just a story from my teaching days at CGSC. A friend was giving a class to the African students of the day and the subject was human rights and democracy. As he gave the class he held up Haiti as a long standing independent nation that has struggled with democracy and human rights. At the point, the Somali in the class raised his hand and when he was recognized, he pointed to the Haitian student and said, "My country has struggled since independence in 1960 with these issues. Your country has been independent for nearly 200 years? What is wrong with you people?
Needless to say, the class sort of fell apart after that one...
Last edited by Tom Odom; 06-19-2007 at 04:40 PM.
Nice story Tom. Reminds me of the Indian officer at the Armor Advanced Course who was briefing about religion in India, and he showed a Shia cult flagellating themselves with chains (forgot what religious holiday that was for).
The Saudi National Guardsman jumped out of his chair and screamed, "That is not Islam!"
Things went downhill quickly from there.
"Speak English! said the Eaglet. "I don't know the meaning of half those long words, and what's more, I don't believe you do either!"
The Eaglet from Lewis Carroll's Alice in Wonderland
LOL I bet it did. That would have been Ashura. Then again there was Ralph Peters who went to a conference sponsored by NATO in Italy and pulled out a map showing his proposed borders for Kurdistan, including portions of Turkey. The Turkish officers in the audience were not amused.
Best
Tom
Haiti is in Africa?
Interesting, Tom, that the Haitian student was with the Africans and not the Latin Americans. Last time I looked, Haiti was an American republic
Seriously, the reason was that Haiti has more in common with Africa than it does with the rest of the Americas. That said, the Somali's question is a good one. If it can be answered for Haiti then we may be able to find an answer about how to address the failed/failing state phenomenon.
Maybe things have gotten so much better in the other countries that Iraq isn't really sinking at all ... it's the same or getting better.
I will e-mail my comment to Tony Snow immediately.
The governor of my state is running for President. Our state is just about last in everything. But I should watch what I post. He is currently my boss. He is advocating total withdrawal from Iraq. On the other hand, my state is only one of a few states that is in the black. Why? The oil & gas industry.
As for Iraq. Picture the great State of California suffering the same daily routine. Liberals and Conservatives blowing each other up. Tortured bodies found everyday and sent to the morgue. Illegal immigrants kidnapping citizens and demanding ransom. Police being attacked and/or executed. The list goes on...
But it isn't happening in California because we have a better system. They have an old archaic system that is difficult for even the most learned on the culture to understand. Iraq is now the, "FIGHT CLUB!", capitol of the world. I wonder if we take my governor's advice and completely leave Iraq. Would Iraq become the #1 worst place in the world or would it move up in the rankings. All I know is we opened up a big can of worms. I hope Washington knows what they are doing. No pun intended.
"But suppose everybody on our side felt that way?"
"Then I'd certainly be a damned fool to feel any other way. Wouldn't I?"
John T.Interesting, Tom, that the Haitian student was with the Africans and not the Latin Americans. Last time I looked, Haiti was an American republic
Seriously, the reason was that Haiti has more in common with Africa than it does with the rest of the Americas. That said, the Somali's question is a good one. If it can be answered for Haiti then we may be able to find an answer about how to address the failed/failing state phenomenon.
We always treated Haitians as Africans; I was scheduled to go be the DATT in Haiti as an African FAO when fate and Rwanda intervened. You are correct; the Somali question was a good one. A French instructor of mine at DLI who was Haitian answered it one day in class. We asked him what he thought of the Duvaliers (Pappy and Baby) and he said they were bad for the country, bad for the people, and bad for the region. He then said if he was given the chance, he would do exactly what they had done.
Tom
...in relation to another thread...
Tom--
You are right, of course. DOD always treated Haiti as if it were a slice of Africa in the Americas. All the army attaches were Africa FAOs. I wonder - do you know - if State did the same?
Regarding the DLI instructor: His comment suggests something inherent in Haitian culture. Indeed, many scholars of Haiti - both Haitian and outsiders - have labeled Haitian culture as being predatory. This smacks of cutural deteminism which, as one old anthro prof, David Bidney, argued truly overstates the issue. The problem I see is that I don't have any answer for Haiti other than a long term "trusteeship" (nice word for colonial rule) in which power is devolved form the local to the national level as the culture is changed.
On that cheery note
JohnT
Haiti and Africa
Haiti seems to share a low aptitude for self government with many African countries. Until Mugabe recently topped them, I had thought that Haiti may have the record for incompetence in governance.
Merv,
Certainly Haiti ranks up there. But Africa is simply amazing when it comes to the comic-tragedy of Mugabe and Mugabe-like figures. Stan has a continuous decade of Zaire/Congo under his belt and fueled with a couple of beers can offer hours of stories. It gets to the point where you have to guard against making erroneous assumptions of incompetency. That was the case with certain of my SF guys when they came from Haiti and joined me in Rwanda where the RPA stood out by virtue of its efficiency.
But where Haiti still reigns supreme is duration of independent incompetence; two centuries is quite a record.
Best
Tom
I believe Ambassador Swing went straight from South Africa to Haiti in the early 90s. One man doesn't make a trend, but it's one data point.
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