Quote Originally Posted by Rex Brynen View Post
A few quick observations.

No, Hamas is not trying to provoke an IDF entry into Gaza.
Rex,

Is this your considered opinion or do you have supporting information in the form of HUMINT or otherwise?

PIJ and the PRC might be, in a limited way...
Targeting elementary school children in an attempt at cold-blooded mass murder is not limited anything - it is in fact Unrestricted Warfare by definition.

Trust me, the IDF response to a mass casualty attack of this sort will be anything but a limited response pointed out above.


Hamas is trying to play a game of strategic deterrence (which is why they and the Israelis are simultaneously discussing, albeit indirectly, conditions for a ceasefire).
I doubt very seriously that Israel and HAMAS are involved in negotiations- third-party good offices notwithstanding. Only people like Shlomo Ben-Ami advocated such abject nonsense and that was before HAMAS violent takeover of Gaza from Fatah. Moreover, there is nothing for Israel to gain in negotiating what would be nothing more than a 10-year hudna with HAMAS when Israel has the power to annihilate them lock, stock and AK-47 barrel.


The IDF was spectacularly unsuccessful in preventing the growth of Hamas in Gaza the last time it was occupied.
99.9% of HAMAS currently military prowess in GAZA has been achieved since the unilateral Israeli withdrawal from Gaza - most of it smuggled in via tunnels from Egyptian Sinai.

There's no reason to think they would be much better at it a second time around.
Of course. Next time HAMAS will cease to exist as a viable military force along with all the other terrorists in Gaza.


Hamas enjoys good relations with Syria and Iran. Neither outside actor has much influence over their behaviour (indeed, even the Damascus-based leadership has lost influence since the Gaza takeover).
Good relations? They are de facto allies. Iran has bought HAMAS loyalty and strategic warfighting capability with tens of millions of dollars.