Lebanon, Gaza, and the Syrian-Iranian Axis

[Sean Osborne]

I am unwilling to believe that, Sean. (For one thing, if they could, WHY would Israel have bothered with Annapolis?)

Penta,

Just relating what has been collected from several current and former IDF soldiers, some of whom are 'Hayal Boded' (Lone Soldiers). This info is as close to real HUMINT as I'm capable of collecting.

The IDF has been mobilizing by all accounts since at least early November. Some of that mobilization was in prep for possible terrorist action prior to the Annapolis Summit. Since then the units have not stood down. Israeli DM Barak has been hinting strongly that a major IDF operation against HAMAS in Gaza is possible to very likely. Circumstances will dictate. Several individuals have stated to me that a major IDF action in Gaza would not commence until after a mass-casualty rocket attack on the civilian population in places like Sderot or elsewhere in the western Negev. (Related to this is that terrorists have increased the lethality of rocket-borne warheads and appear to be attempting to strike an elementary school. Such an attack nearly succeeded today in Sderot.) It would seem that provoking such an IDF operation may be what HAMAS and its allies are attempting to do.

The IDF may be reluctant to lauch a full-scale operation in Gaza due to political considerations. Once the IDF takes all of Gaza from HAMAS to whom do they then give it to? Fatah? Not likely. The IDF has to have their post action planning done first and by all acounts this aspect is unresolved. Still, there is the toleration threshold that may make this point moot.

Remember the pattern from summer 2006 - HAMAS operations in the Gaza front were duplicated by Hezbollah on the Lebanese front and that led to a short but furious war which the IDF had not planned or prepared for. That mistake will not be repeated this time.

Be careful to decouple wishes from probabilities.

Nobody but the terrorist enemy appears to desire another major war. Attempting to murder school children enmasse makes this a fact. Therefore decoupling of the info I collect from the probabilities of another significant conflict in the Levant is not something which needs to be addressed. To the contrary, the dots require connecting.