Quote Originally Posted by Surferbeetle View Post
I am thinking about how (and gathering my strength) to apply bayes theorem, generate some fancy genetic algorithms and use the black-scholes model to examine some stock picks (or I might get a monkey and a dart board).
Can you actually use Excel to do calculus? I'm brushing up on my calculus in order to try my hand with Black-Scholes (I'm taking a graduate course in options trading). In the past, I simply bought put options when I expected a stock to tank and call options when I thought it was grossly overvalued and volatile. But, I'll see how much money I can lose with the assistance of mathematical models.

Quote Originally Posted by Surferbeetle View Post
Long story short this guy with no formal engineering education started out as a draftsman, worked his way up to a senior public works engineer position, and was able to survey, select, combine and simplify several hundred years worth of hydraulics work into some workable equations (he was in his 70's when he presented these equations) that we still use today to predict hydraulic phenomena which were previously unquantifiable/unpredictable at an acceptable level (he died in 1897).
That deals with phenomena that can be recreated and tested to confirm its validity beyond a shadow of a doubt. That, to me, implies greater simplicity of the subject matter and greater certainty along the way as to whether you're on the right track. I don't see any parallel to social science. But I'm also not attempting to discourage your work - it would be neat if you came up with something useful.