Counterinsurgents Should Consider A "Fabrication Cell"

[bourbon]

bourbon, great article, much thanks for posting. The impact of this technology and associated open system processes on legacy industries is already having a significant impact, and probably will fall in the category of one the technologies that enabled creative destruction to the existing order over time.

From a defense perspective we of course need to view it from at least two perspectives. First how can we leverage this technology, and second how can our foes leverage it and what does that mean to us?

Interesting times we live in. I will have to put down some the broader thoughts I’ve developed in reading about these tech breakthroughs, into the Futurists & Theorists folder or elsewhere in the Participants & Stakeholders section.

With regard to the second perspective, for the short-term future the application of these new technologies in the manufacture of weapons and explosive devices by insurgent and/or terrorist groups should be looked into. Hopefully it is something an organization like JIEDDO already has an eye on.

I have a general understanding that there is a range of performance in explosively formed penetrators, with regard to the level of precision used in their manufacture; however I do not know the true extent or implications. For the purpose of generating an example of the types of questions to be explored by experts, let’s say that these differences are significant: what then are the implications of when the high level of precision necessary for manufacture of a top-of-the-range EFP becomes exponentially cheaper and easier to produce?

I can’t claim any technical background or expertise; but I have an intuition that some people who do, should look into such issues.

[bourbon]

Could 3D Printing Change the World? Technologies, Potential, and Implications of Additive Manufacturing. Atlantic Council - Strategic Foresight Initiative, October 2011. (PDF)

A new technology is emerging that could change the world. 3D Printing/Additive Manufacturing (AM) is a revolutionary technology that could profoundly alter the geopolitical, economic, social, demographic, environmental, and security landscape of the international system. AM builds products layer-by-layer—additively—rather than subtracting material from a larger piece of material—that is, “subtractive” manufacturing. This seemingly small distinction—adding rather than subtracting—means everything. This potential revolution in manufacturing may take a decade or more to mature and become ubiquitous, but it could profoundly change our world in the next ten to twenty years.

Could 3D Printing Change the World? Technologies, Potential, and Implications of Additive Manufacturing explores the technology of AM and its broader implications, which include:

- Assembly lines and supply chains could be reduced or eliminated for many products. AM can produce the final product—or large pieces of a final product— in one process.

- Designs, not products, would move around the world as digital files are printed anywhere with any printer to meet design parameters. A “STL” design file can be sent via the Internet and printed in 3D.

- Products could be printed on demand without the need for inventories.

- A given manufacturing facility would be capable of printing a huge range of products without retooling—and each printing could be customized without additional cost.

- Production and distribution of material products could become de-globalized as production is brought closer to the consumer.

- Manufacturing could be pulled away from “manufacturing platforms” like China back to the countries where the products are consumed, reducing global economic imbalances as export countries’ surpluses are reduced and importing countries’ reliance on imports shrink.

- The carbon footprint of manufacturing and transport as well as overall energy use in manufacturing could be reduced substantially and thus global “resource productivity” greatly enhanced and carbon emissions reduced.

- Reduced need for labor in manufacturing could be politically destabilizing in some economies while others, especially aging societies, might benefit from the ability to produce more goods with fewer people while reducing reliance on imports.

- The United States, the current leader in AM technology, could experience a renaissance in innovation, design, IP exports, and manufacturing, enhancing its relative economic strength and geopolitical influence.

Will 3D Printing indeed change the world in these and other profound ways? Of course, it remains to be seen. The military already views AM as a potential technology for specific tasks which could have huge efficiency and cost-saving benefits, such as the production of spare parts to reduce inventories carried by ships. But the foreign policy and defense and intelligence communities must look more systematically at how new technologies such as AM could transform the world in fundamental ways that affect the global economy, societies, and the overall strategic and security environment. The authors of this Strategic Foresight Report hope to advance the dialogue and understanding between the science and technology communities and the foreign policy, intelligence and defense communities and provide foresight into the policy implications of the accelerating rate with which new technologies are changing our world.

[bourbon]

From the report above:

AM could have significant implications in security and terrorism:

• Weapons manufacturing could become easier –guns, bullets, bombs, etc., could become cheaper and more easily accessible
• Weapons could be much more easily disguised (e.g., improvised explosive devices-IEDs-that look identical to non-weapons)
• Terrorists could lose their dependency upon developed countries for their supplies
• Implications will exist for counterfeiting/anticounterfeiting

[bourbon]

The group Defense Distributed has successfully created a lower receiver for an AR-15 that withstood the firing of over 600 rounds, that was printed using stereolithography. The previous model they demonstrated last year failed after 6 rounds.

Note that this lower currently takes 9-12 hours to print and costs $150 to make. Also note that 3D printing technology roughly follows a Moore's Law – style of trend; so think about drop in price and rise in quality of regular 2D computer printers over the last 20 or 30 years. We are going to see something similar with 3D printing / additive manufacturing.

Background article on Defense Distributed:
Shots Heard ‘Round the World: The 3D-Printed Gun Revolution Begins, by Kyle Chayka. AnimalNewYork.com, November 12, 2012.

[bourbon]

Oh, and they are already getting into "4D Printing" these days: Brilliant Robot Scraps Can Form Selves Into Anything - Wired.com