but one of the recurrent things that has been thrust at me for the last 2.5 years of 'book learning' is that the mil effort in COIN is just 20% (ie , 1 in 5 parts ) of the overall effort in a COIN fight.

Accordingly, the 'surge' , if we are serious, cannot be the 'strategy' - by accepted definition in the literature it is only (at most) 20% of one.

So, before I would even presume to try and guess or deduce an answer to Steve's provocative question, I think I need to know what the other 80% of the strategy is comprised of. Trouble is, I haven't come across any explanation of what that is.

One thing I am pretty sure of is that the body of historical example to date tells us something. No matter how good an effort GEN Petraeus (and any number of clever military COIN adviser folks) come up with within the mil tactical and operational realm, it will not be enough. Without commensurate effort in the Strat Pol, Civ and Societal realm it will, at best, only delay the inevitable. Bizarrely, the public debate has ignored this, continually laboring under the misapprehension that the military effort alone can deliver 'victory'.