4GW & Other Myths

[Bill Moore]

I wonder what Echevarria’s agenda was in writing 4GW and Other Myths? His comments were extremely arrogant; the same type of arrogance that led to poor strategic planning for the Vietnam War and the initial stages of OIF. Although he made some sound arguments, he lost credibility with me when he wrote "everything" on war has already been written. That mind set has persisted throughout history, and it has always been proven wrong. That doesn’t mean that 4GW theorists are right. We have a terrible record of predicting the future. There are always several variables we never calculate for, and then in hind sight they seem so obvious we wonder why we missed them.

There were several areas of 4GW that Mr. Echevarria failed to address, and one that I would like to address is the assumption that the Nation State is steadying losing power, while non-state actors are becoming more powerful. Most folks today hear non-state actors, and they automatically think Al-Qaeda, but the definition extends far beyond this realm of actors. Consider the following:

1. Globalization (economic model, not political) equals increasing power of multinational corporations that make their own foreign policy and have increasing large security apparatuses. There is much concern on how to control them, while some argue not controlling them will actually lead to more stability, because the nation’s economies will be too interdependent to allow waging war upon one another. Hopefully this isn’t wishful thinking.

2. Transnational criminal organizations becoming increasingly sophisticated and capable of influencing significant political influence through infiltration, bribery, threats, and terrorism. The Italian mob is now the babes in the woods compared to Russian, Chinese, and Latin American gangs. I would throw the Aryan Nation under this group and their ilk under this group also.

3. Large sections of the world are defaulting back to tribal and other undesired political organizations because the State (no longer supported as a proxy in the cold war) doesn’t have the power to control the majority of their population, throughout much of sub-Sahara Africa, South Asia, Cambodia, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq, etc.

4. Ability of NGOs/PVOs to influence the international audience and force states and non-state actors to act.

5. The growing power of religious organizations. We have our own version of the Taliban in the U.S. thumping the bible and advocating non-state sponsored action against abortion clinics, and in some cases calling for separation from the State (Aryan Brotherhood).

In short our world is changing and so is the nature of conflict. Are the 4GW theorists right? I don’t know, but I disagree strongly with Echevarria’s view that all we need to know has been written already.

GorTex is right, unconventional warfare (in varying degrees) has been around throughout the history of man (it brought Rome to its knees), and that our military institutions have been slow to adapt to the reality on the street. Vietnam was a perfect example of a failed PME beginning with a non-functional West Point Culture that generated officers more concerned about maintaining traditions than dealing effectively with our nation’s security issues. However, I think everyone gets it now.