My Grand Strategy

[Bill Moore]

Response to the Grand Strategy

Steve I really enjoyed your white paper titled Rethinking Insurgencies, but in the end disagreed with your recommendations. I agree with Kilcullen's statement when he said, "if this was easy, we would have figured out the answer by now".

1.

Disengage as much as possible from the Islamic world

That implies leaving that global segment of the market open to Chinese, Russian, and French influence for economic gain (I only listed three of several countries), and put our corporations at a competitive disadvantage. We can't afford to the Middle East into another Cuba, hell we can't afford to do it in Cuba.

2.

End our petroleum addiction

Easier said than done, it is not only big business interests that encourages the addiction, it is the limits of science that makes this part of the strategy infeasible, so it also discredits number 1 above in my mind.


3.

Develop a list of partner and non-partner states based on whether they tolerate the ideology of Islamic extremism, not just whether they chase AQ. Obvisouly, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Pakistan and others would be non-parnters. End aid to, immigration from, and visas to the citizens of non-partners. Do not renew the visas of citizens of non-partherns.

Here we go again with our Cuban approach, which has failed miserably. If we allowed our business men to work in Cuba, and tourists to go there, Castro would have become a nobody. Isolation doesn't work. Nixon opened the doors to China through engagement, not isolation. Where has it ever worked?

4.

Approach cyberspace as a key battlefield. Currently, it is the ultimate "ungoverned space." Consider hosting web sites or transmitting information which advocates violence as a hostile act. Take action against it. In other words, don't allow the extremists to hide behind the importance we place on free speech and the transnational nature of information.

We can assist the market with this, but if the government tries to do it, instead of encouraging others better atuned with how people outside the military think and respond to cyber stimuli, it will be a wasted effort. On the other hand I think there is huge potential here. I think there is a quiet majority that has yet to be mobilized that clearly realize AQ type terrorism cannot be justified, yet they seem to have no voice in the media that many folks listen to.

5.

Launch spoiling raids as necessary against hostile groups.

Amen to this one. Getting involved in an insurgency, counterinsurgency, regime change, etc. should only be undertaken under extreme circumstances, and if certain elements are identified present that make victory possible. In many situations we'll just to have to realize we can't make the world the way we want it to be, and further realize it isn't that big of deal if we don't in most cases. We need to relearn to think strategically again.

[SteveMetz]

Response to the Grand Strategy

Steve I really enjoyed your white paper titled Rethinking Insurgencies, but in the end disagreed with your recommendations. I agree with Kilcullen's statement when he said, "if this was easy, we would have figured out the answer by now".

1.

That implies leaving that global segment of the market open to Chinese, Russian, and French influence for economic gain (I only listed three of several countries), and put our corporations at a competitive disadvantage. We can't afford to the Middle East into another Cuba, hell we can't afford to do it in Cuba.

2. Easier said than done, it is not only big business interests that encourages the addiction, it is the limits of science that makes this part of the strategy infeasible, so it also discredits number 1 above in my mind.


3.

Here we go again with our Cuban approach, which has failed miserably. If we allowed our business men to work in Cuba, and tourists to go there, Castro would have become a nobody. Isolation doesn't work. Nixon opened the doors to China through engagement, not isolation. Where has it ever worked?

4.

We can assist the market with this, but if the government tries to do it, instead of encouraging others better atuned with how people outside the military think and respond to cyber stimuli, it will be a wasted effort. On the other hand I think there is huge potential here. I think there is a quiet majority that has yet to be mobilized that clearly realize AQ type terrorism cannot be justified, yet they seem to have no voice in the media that many folks listen to.

5.

Amen to this one. Getting involved in an insurgency, counterinsurgency, regime change, etc. should only be undertaken under extreme circumstances, and if certain elements are identified present that make victory possible. In many situations we'll just to have to realize we can't make the world the way we want it to be, and further realize it isn't that big of deal if we don't in most cases. We need to relearn to think strategically again.

I'm just not buying the Cuba analogy. We've had massive economic engagement with Saudi Arabia for decades and look what it's got us--the society which provides the most ideological and financial support for transnational terrorism today. In fact, I think the China comparison supports my idea: we are able to trade with that nation without influencing their politics or claiming to "spread democracy" there.

I'm not seeing how American political and military disengagement from the Islamic world is going to leave "that global segment of the market open to Chinese, Russian, and French influence for economic gain." They don't produce much of value except oil anyway. In terms of being a customer of America, I'm not seeing that there is a great preference to "buy American" in the Islamic world anyhow. And even when there is, it isn't because we are politically and militarily engaged there. It's because a specific product or service we are selling is better. Political and military disengagement won't change that.

And I didn't say "isolation." I said separation. We--and I'm speaking of the West here--allow our enemies to migrate to and travel within our countries. They take advantage of our freedoms to harm us.

I have two problems with the idea that "here is a quiet majority that has yet to be mobilized that clearly realize AQ type terrorism cannot be justified, yet they seem to have no voice in the media that many folks listen to." First, I'm not sure it's true. While it's probably true that most Muslims do not favor terrorism, I believe most are willing to overlook it so long as it is targeted against the West. It's a very different thing to not favor terrorism and to take action to oppose it. Second, even if your statement is true, how are we to mobilize this silent majority? Mobilizing it would challenge the elites--the Mubaraks, the Sauds, and the Musharaffs--who are our friends. The Palestinian Authority gives an indication of what a real democracy looks like in that part of the world. As I argued above, it is illiberal democracy.