The concept of "adaptation"

[wm]

My main point on Iraq is that Iraq is much closer to Yugoslavia right now than either France or Switzerland or, to mention a more relevant example, Lebanon (IMO the only bottom-up state in the region, excepting perhaps the UAE).

If by this you agree with MarcT's point that states come and states go, my only comment is " and this is bad, why?" It might well be the case that a world without an Iraq might be better than a world with an Iraq held together by force rather than by consensus.

[marct]

Hi Tequila,

My main point on Iraq is that Iraq is much closer to Yugoslavia right now than either France or Switzerland or, to mention a more relevant example, Lebanon (IMO the only bottom-up state in the region, excepting perhaps the UAE).

I think it could go either way. Seven or eight months ago,I would have totally agreed with you, now I'm not so sure. In all honesty, I just don't have enough information to get a really good feel for the politics. I doubt it will go like France's ancien regime, although that's a possibility (i.e. another dictatorship). It might go like the early Swiss confederation - possible but I wouldn't want to hazard percentages on it (good model, though ).

[Tom Odom]

Marc,

22 years ago while researching the 1964 Congo Crisis, I came across a State INR assessment which said something like:

"The Congolese government is like Spanish moss. With its roots in the rarified air of Leopoldville, it has little contact with what is happening on the ground in the countryside."

That is my take on the Maliki government. The sectarian divisions are clearer now than they were 10 months ago. The de facto splits are largely in place; the questions on what role a national government will play seems to me to be the critical issues now.

Best

Tom

[marct]

Hi Tom,

I think that's a pretty good assessment . I suspect that the grass roots organizations are more than somewhat disturbing to the Maliki government as well. I'll be interested in following up o the investigations into the recent Al Anbar assasination - I suspect how the government handles that will have a major impact on the next couple of years.