Unnecessarily gloomy.

Predictions about what will happen in the ME by any westerners (or even its denizens) are best avoided, little there is as it seems.

Disagree with his second paragraph also; if the Army acknowledges the pretty obvious fact that the domestic political will does not accord with long scenario counterinsurgencies and I think it has; and that the possibility of future insurgencies is quite good then the key is to develop tactics, techniques and equipment to deploy, rapidly secure an acceptable outcome to us -- not a 'victory' -- and depart. It would only take one or two of those to dispel any lingering reservations. The nations he names as needing to readjust are in process of doing so and have been for some time. He, like most talking heads must've missed that -- rather surprising in a historian. Though, as I said, he is trying to rally the doubters so a little hyperbole is probably required.

While I agree with his last sentence and think the penultimate one is correct, I also think '"crushing defeat" is, umm, excessive...