Northern Ireland (merged thread)

[LawVol]

I agree that the press can and is playing a role in the Darfur issue. I can definately envision US troops there. However, I don't think these people have thought this through, which seems surprising given the backlash with Iraq. If we intervene in Darfur, we will certainly face opposition that will likely take the form of an insurgency (Janjaweed) with support by the Sudanese government. This is essentially a mirror image of Iraq. And when it happens, the two-headed monster of the press will turn on the military. Its a lose-lose situation.

[Tom Odom]

I agree that the press can and is playing a role in the Darfur issue. I can definately envision US troops there. However, I don't think these people have thought this through, which seems surprising given the backlash with Iraq. If we intervene in Darfur, we will certainly face opposition that will likely take the form of an insurgency (Janjaweed) with support by the Sudanese government. This is essentially a mirror image of Iraq. And when it happens, the two-headed monster of the press will turn on the military. Its a lose-lose situation.

You are correct in saying that Darfur is not the good guys--bad guys scenario played out in the media and among the various interest groups looking to stimulate an intervention. Recent reporting suggests that supposed enemies have allied with each other in attacks on others. the complexity of the Sudanese arena is deceptive. Various interest groups in the US and elsewhere have for years portrayed the North-South dispute as one of Muslim versus Christian, prompting an almost knee jerk response from interest groups to "save" the southernors. Neither side in that dispute had or have clean hands and the southern rebels themselves killed many a fellow southernor over the years. The Darfur/Kordofan dispute was pretty much an Arab versus Arab affair but it too has morphed and developed linkages with the North-South conflict. I would offer that our best course of action is to support the African forces already deployed and stay the hell out of the arena.

best

Tom

[Granite_State]

I agree that the press can and is playing a role in the Darfur issue. I can definately envision US troops there. However, I don't think these people have thought this through, which seems surprising given the backlash with Iraq. If we intervene in Darfur, we will certainly face opposition that will likely take the form of an insurgency (Janjaweed) with support by the Sudanese government. This is essentially a mirror image of Iraq. And when it happens, the two-headed monster of the press will turn on the military. Its a lose-lose situation.

If this is to be believed, troops (not US) are on the way: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/new...cle2174209.ece. Started a thread about it in the Africa section.

[davidbfpo]

Came across this podcast by Peter Hain, the former Northern Ireland Secretary, talking in London in December 2008 on the peace process: http://www.mtcmedia.co.uk/icsr/seminar.php and the podcast is 27 minutes long. Interesting summary and points.

This thread could fit elsewhere and took time to choose here.

davidbfpo

[davidbfpo]

Comments on the peace process in Northern Ireland / Ulster pop up in the oddest places. This might be better in a thread on talking to he taliban, but there isn't one - according to my memory.

Published earlier in 2009 was a book 'Talking to Terrorists: Making Peace in Northern Ireland and the Basque Country', by John Bew, Martyn Framptom, and Inigo Gurruchagaby. The book's website: http://www.talkingtoterrorists.org/blog/main.php

In a review by the conservative US think tank, AEI, on their new defence site, note the author Gary Schmitt is is ex-Project for the New American Century: http://www.aei.org/article/100871

The review highlight:

According to this marvelous new study, there are serious reasons to doubt that the model of conflict resolution relied on here is an accurate account of what actually happened in Northern Ireland and, therefore, a realistic guide for dealing with similar terrorist insurgencies.

Another UK conservative comment: http://www.henryjacksonsociety.org/stories.asp?id=1194

On the basis of the British experience in Northern Ireland, it is now widely argued that talking to terrorists is a pre-requisite for peace, and that governments should avoid rigid pre-conditions in their attempts to bring extremists into the political process...But does this understanding really reflect how peace was brought to Northern Ireland? And can it be applied to other areas where democratic governments face threats from terrorist organisations?

In challenging this idea, the authors of "Talking to Terrorists: Making Peace in Northern Ireland and the Basque Country" suggest that what really matters is not the act of talking to terrorists itself, but a range of other variables including the role of state actors, intelligence agencies, hard power and the wider democratic process. In some cases, talking can do more harm than good. But above all, there is a crucial difference between talking to terrorists who believe that their strategy is succeeding and engaging with those who have been made to realise that their aims are unattainable by violence.

Clearly some of the lessons learned could apply to Afghanistan as Schmitt's review indicates.

davidbfpo

[Wargames Mark]

In some cases, talking can do more harm than good. But above all, there is a crucial difference between talking to terrorists who believe that their strategy is succeeding and engaging with those who have been made to realise that their aims are unattainable by violence.

I think that says most of it.

[davidbfpo]

Twentyfive years ago today the Provisional IRA (PIRA) nearly decapitated the UK government, with a bomb left in the hotel used by Mrs Thatcher and others: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brighton_hotel_bombing

Lord Tebbitt has written this article, he was trapped in the blast, with his wife: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukne...hton-bomb.html

A shorter podcast is within this: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8301851.stm and an excellent, fifty minute documentary by Peter Taylor: http://www.viddler.com/explore/An_Finineach/videos/7/

Patrick Magee the man convicted of planting the bomb was released as part of the Good Friday Agreement.

davidbfpo