Northern Ireland (merged thread)

[jmm99]

David,

I'll grant you that focus on the law enforcement aspect in Ulster requires a focus on the violence level, especially those attacks targeting police officers. We have no argument as to that point of view taken separately.

However, my focus was on the political picture, in both North and South. In that portrait, demographics play a huge role - especially the apparent trend toward future demographics. Still, demographics are not the overriding factor that will overcome all else. One has to take into account the perceptions and beliefs of the Ulster Unionists (which underlie the demonstrations).

Thus, I concluded:

The demonstrations are of far more substance (in the larger picture of Northern Ireland) than the "splinter IRA" actions over the past couple of years.

Those demonstrations (leaving aside the violence) are based on deeply-held Unionist beliefs, as the Ulsterman from Shankill Road states:

On a stretch of the road punctuated with memorials to Protestants killed in the Troubles and to Ulstermen who died in World War I, Paul Shaw, 33, owner of the Shankill Band Shop, boasted of doing a roaring trade during the upheaval, selling thousands of flags and other loyalist memorabilia, including DVDs of patriotic songs sung by Ulstermen on the battlefields of the Somme.

“It’s our flag, our identity; it’s been flown above City Hall every day since 1906, and it’s being stripped from us,” he said. With nods from others clustered around him, he compared the flag battle to the fighting on the Somme. “If we lose this one, we’ll have a united Ireland in 5 or 10 years, and we won’t accept it,” he said. “We’ll die to defend the flag. If we have to, we’ll go back to the graveyards and the jails.”

His perceptions (and fears) were certainly fortified in the days of Articles 2 and 3 of the Constitution of Ireland [1937-1999 version], which provided:

2. The national territory consists of the whole island of Ireland, its islands and the territorial seas.

3. Pending the re-integration of the national territory, and without prejudice to the right of the [Irish] parliament and [Irish Republican] government established by this constitution to exercise jurisdiction over the whole territory, the laws enacted by the [Irish] parliament shall have the like area and extent of application as the laws of Saorstat Eireann [Irish Free State] and the like extra-territorial effect.

Needless to say, those provisions (especially Article 2) were an "in the face" to Ulster Unionists.

For the post-WWI constitutional history of Ulster, see R.W. McGimpsey, Northern Ireland And The Irish Constitution: Pragmatism Or Principle? - :the McGimpsey Case (2010)(182 pp.). The McGimpsey Case was brought by two Ulstermen (the McGimpsey brothers) in the Irish Supreme Court to force Southern consideration of a better approach by the South to the North than the high-handed force of Articles 2 and 3.

The Good Friday Agreement required a Southern referendum on what became the Nineteenth Amendment of the Constitution of Ireland.

The referendum requirement was a Unionist incentive to eliminate the unacceptable language of Articles 2 and 3. The Southern referendum passed with 94% of the vote.

Thus, the resultant clauses ended up as follows:

Substitution of new Articles 2 and 3

2. It is the entitlement and birthright of every person born in the island of Ireland, which includes its islands and seas, to be part of the Irish nation. That is also the entitlement of all persons otherwise qualified in accordance with law to be citizens of Ireland. Furthermore, the Irish nation cherishes its special affinity with people of Irish ancestry living abroad who share its cultural identity and heritage.

3.1. It is the firm will of the Irish nation, in harmony and friendship, to unite all the people who share the territory of the island of Ireland, in all the diversity of their identities and traditions, recognising that a united Ireland shall be brought about only by peaceful means with the consent of a majority of the people, democratically expressed, in both jurisdictions in the island. Until then, the laws enacted by the Parliament established by this Constitution shall have the like area and extent of application as the laws enacted by the Parliament that existed immediately before the coming into operation of this Constitution.

3.2. Institutions with executive powers and functions that are shared between those jurisdictions may be established by their respective responsible authorities for stated purposes and may exercise powers and functions in respect of all or any part of the island.

I expect the "majority vote" requirement is the best known of the new Articles 2 and 3. That requirement is where demographics come into play. If the future demographics of all Northern Ireland resemble those of the present Belfast City Council (and they are trending that way), it is possible that a Northern referendum would approve unification. Note that would be a narrow vote of approval, which might not be acceptable to the South.

One may have misplaced faith in assuming the South's automatic approval of unification. The North is not exactly an economic prize, especially given the South's own problems. Add in the real threat of a Unionist insurgency, and all bets would be off. The South is not going to risk a repeat of Four Courts and the 1922-1923 Irish Civil War; nor, is it any more likely to march North than Hubert Gough was in 1914.

The key, of course, is whether the language "in all the diversity of their identities and traditions" will have real meaning in application - and will be perceived as such by the various hyphenated Irish: Anglo-Irish, Gaelic-Irish, Norman-Irish and Scots-Irish. Giving real meaning to those fine sounds requires acceptance of the 36th (Ulster) Division, the Orange Sash, the 12th of July as it yearly doth come, etc. ... And, of course, to be able to chuckle one's way through the lyrics of The Old Orange Flute.

In the county Tyrone, in the town of Dungannon
Where many a ruckus meself had a hand in
Bob Williamson lived there, a weaver by trade
And all of us thought him a stout-hearted blade.

On the twelfth of July as it yearly did come
Bob played on the flute to the sound of the drum
You can talk of your fiddles, your harp or your lute
But there's nothing could sound like the Old Orange Flute.

But the treacherous scoundrel, he took us all in
For he married a Papish named Bridget McGinn
Turned Papish himself and forsook the Old Cause
That gave us our freedom, religion and laws.

... (and on and on) ...

I conclude that the Ulster Unionists who make their points via speech and demonstrations (but by eschewing violence) are exercising smart politics.

Regards

Mike