Northern Ireland (merged thread)

[davidbfpo]

Red Rat partial citation:

Generally UK Police forces prefer to contain public order situations, preventing damage to property and minimising risk to life. They prefer a longer term solution which sees them contain the situation and then with things have died down they go in days and weeks later and arrest those involved using evidence they have gathered during the riots.

Yes, on the mainland UK there has been a strategy and practice of containment and post-event arrests using CCTV, photos etc. This can work in some situations, partly as few in the crowd appear to consider the consequences of identication and predictably stern sentencing by the courts. Police forces across the mainland have used this, not always successfully as large numbers of rioters remain unknown; it probably best works with predictable crowds, notably football match day violence as the numbers are small and often very well known.

For reasons that are not clear there has been a far more offensive strategy and practice for public disorder, often when political causes are involved, from the protests outside arms fairs to large-scale demos in London. This has led to much criticism, from across the spectrum and not the "usual suspects" e.g anti-hunting ban demo in London a few years ago, with baton charges, on a largely rural, conservative, white demo. The policing of the G8 protests in London being a cause celebre and the resulting report by the Her Majesty's Inspector of Constabulary (HMIC) documents this very well. The report is:http://www.derbyshire.police.uk/sei/s/760/f1120.pdf

There's also a KoW item on this, wider issue:http://kingsofwar.org.uk/2010/05/on-crowds-and-coin/

Yes, the police can contain or disperse and other options. What is the level of support they have, from the local community to the national level?

Turning to the short spasm of rioting in Northern Ireland, if the police (PSNI) had taken the non-containment route what support would they have had? It is apparent from previous incidents that "community leaders" and youth workers have been able to reduce the level of violence and numbers involved.

[Red Rat]

Turning to the short spasm of rioting in Northern Ireland,

My friends in Belfast are adamant that this was 'recreational rioting'; hopefully when I am across there this weekend I will not get involved in any recreational batoning

Of more concern is the lack of control by Sinn Fein; better the devil you know...

[JMA]

In the old days when the army supported the RUC we were often deployed to knock heads if things did get bad, allowing the RUC to keep their hands unsullied and mend fences later (Many a happy summer spent with the jocks skulking with intent in support of the RUC!). But again, there had to be risk to life or property for us to get involved. Where I was based (Londonderry) we just used to bottle them up in the 'Bogside' and let them vent there. They would throw petrol bombs we would fire baton rounds. We would go in to disperse only if they were trying to get into the city centre for pillage or trying to cross sectarian divides for pillage, arson and rape.

"Jocks"? Yes out of all the Brits that came out to Rhodesia the jocks as a group were nicely "aggressive". Perhaps it was the unintended consequence of Hadrian's and Antonine's walls that protected the jocks from the deleterious effects of enforced Roman civilization around 122-142 AD? If one was to recruit a force of independent units to take on the Taliban on equal terms I couldn't think you could do better than with a few thousand highland maniacs.

Rape? Must admit my ignorance in this out of NI. Wow, and the degree of prevalence?

[JMA]

My friends in Belfast are adamant that this was 'recreational rioting'; hopefully when I am across there this weekend I will not get involved in any recreational batoning

Of more concern is the lack of control by Sinn Fein; better the devil you know...

Be aware the situation is not like the ANC in South Africa.

The ANC leadership fill parliament and government positions and pay lip service to everything that keeps international opinion sweet while the "Youth League" are total nutters behaving and saying the most outrageous things. The ANC leadership say they are just kids and will grow up in time while the general opinion is that the youth league are speaking and behaving the like the ANC leadership would love to still be doing. Maybe a similar situation in NI?

[davidbfpo]

JMA cited:

The ANC leadership fill parliament and government positions and pay lip service to everything that keeps international opinion sweet while the "Youth League" are total nutters behaving and saying the most outrageous things. The ANC leadership say they are just kids and will grow up in time while the general opinion is that the youth league are speaking and behaving the like the ANC leadership would love to still be doing. Maybe a similar situation in NI?

No, there is little similarity between the ANC and Provisional Sein Fein (PIRA). What we do have is history repeating itself, with nationalist supporters splitting over peace now and unification etc later -v- stay at war and we will get unification. The Provisionals split off from the Official IRA:

It emerged out of the December 1969 split of the Irish Republican Army due to differences over ideology and over how to respond to violence against the nationalist community.

From:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Provisi...epublican_Army

Now the Provisionals face the rump of "let's fight on" and their campaign to recruit new supporters in Northern Ireland. It is quite clear there remains support in the Irish Republic.

[jmm99]

from David
It is quite clear there remains support in the Irish Republic.

and how many phone booths do these SIRA (Splinter IRA) supporters occupy in the Republic ?

We have to work our way through from the start.

Irish Republican Army - Wiki. This divergent bunch (the Óglaigh na hÉireann) then split because of the Civil War, with the majority going with the Treaty Government and remaining the Óglaigh na hÉireann - the official Gaelic for the Irish Defense Forces:

The pro-treaty IRA soon became the nucleus of the new (regular) Irish National Army created by Collins and Richard Mulcahy. British pressure, and tensions between the pro- and anti-Treaty factions of the IRA, led to a bloody civil war, ending in the defeat of the anti-Treaty faction. On May 24, 1923, Frank Aiken, the (anti-treaty) IRA Chief-of-Staff, called a cease-fire. Many left political activity altogether, but a minority continued to insist that the new Irish Free State, created by the "illegitimate" Treaty, was an illegitimate state. They asserted that their "IRA Army Executive" was the real government of a still-existing Irish Republic. The IRA of the Civil War and subsequent organisations that have used the name claim lineage from that group, which is covered in full at Irish Republican Army (1922–1969).

Irish Republican Army (1922–1969), which didn't amount to much. Victor McLaglen in The Informer drew better reviews and much more in revenue and support.

In the 1960s the IRA once more came under the influence of left-wing thinkers, especially those such as Desmond Greaves active in the Connolly Association in London. This move to a class-based political outlook and the consequent rejection of any stance that could be seen as sectarian — including the use of IRA arms to defend the beleaguered Catholic communities of Belfast in the Northern Ireland riots of August 1969 — was to be one of the factors in the 1969 split between the Provisional IRA wing of the republican movement, with some subscribing to a traditional republican analysis of the situation while the others embraced Marxism.

The Provisional IRA embarked on a thirty year armed campaign against the British presence in Northern Ireland that claimed 1707 lives.[6] In 1997 it announced a ceasefire which effectively marked the end of its campaign. In 2005 it formally announced the end of its campaign and destroyed much of its weaponry under international supervision. The movement's political wing, Provisional Sinn Féin, is a growing electoral force in both Northern Ireland and the Republic.

The Official IRA mounted their own armed campaign in the Troubles up to 1972, when they called a ceasefire. However, their members on the ground engaged in some armed activities for the rest of the 1970s before effectively disbanding[7]. By the 1980s, they were an essentially political movement and distanced themselves from traditional republicanism, re-naming their political wing Sinn Féin the Workers Party in the Republic of Ireland in 1979 while in Northern Ireland they were known as Republican Clubs until 1981 and The Workers Party Republican Clubs until 1982 before both Northern and Southern sections became The Workers' Party in 1982.

Provisional Irish Republican Army, which brings us to David's point and to its offspring, 1986 Continuity IRA, and 1997 Real IRA.

So, we are dealing with splinter groups (CIRA, RIRA, etc.) of a splinter group (PIRA) of a splinter group (IRA 1922-1969) of a non-splinter group (IRA) - not much tradition there for substantial support in the Republic. I'd wager a quid that an unbiased poll in the Republic would show a majority against an actual takeover of the North - like right now today, not in some dim constitutional future. Who would want it and why ?

Nonetheless, I expect the North will continue to generate its young jerkoffs until the North is made part of the Republic. At that point, the young jerkoff will say FOAD to the Garda and Óglaigh na hÉireann - and the young jerkoff will meet the fate of Cathal Brugha.

Regards

Mike

[davidbfpo]

JMM,

You partly cited my comment on:

support in the Irish Republic

and asked:

how many phone booths do these SIRA (Splinter IRA) supporters occupy in the Republic ?

I did not qualify or attempt to quantify the level of support in the Irish Republic, from this "armchair" I would speculate a few hundred who are prepared to assist directly, e.g. fund raising and a slightly larger audience who are only prepared to applaud. That is alas enough to keep the "hardliners" active.

There is a very good book on the motivation of the Irish Republican movement, by a US journalist, 'Rebel Hearts; Journeys within the IRA's soul' by Kevin Toolis (Pub. 1995). What I learnt from that in particular was how the appeal of the 'fight' lived on in memories far stronger further away from Northern Ireland.

[Steve Blair]

I did not qualify or attempt to quantify the level of support in the Irish Republic, from this "armchair" I would speculate a few hundred who are prepared to assist directly, e.g. fund raising and a slightly larger audience who are only prepared to applaud. That is alas enough to keep the "hardliners" active.

This is something that should be obvious based on the survival of groups like the RAF and Red Brigades. Sadly it doesn't take much to keep the wild-eyed splinter groups active and spun up enough to set bombs and whatever.

[davidbfpo]

Steve Blair posted:

This is something that should be obvious based on the survival of groups like the RAF and Red Brigades. Sadly it doesn't take much to keep the wild-eyed splinter groups active and spun up enough to set bombs and whatever.

Steve,

That is almost spooky as I am currently reading 'The Baader-Meinhof Complex' by Stefan Aust and it is a good read on small group radicalisation, let alone how the then modern state reacted. A longer review when finished.

We all too easily forget that splinter groups, even individuals like the Unabomber, can create mayhem and take time to dismantle - the Greek November 28 group comes to mind. For later see:http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/3299349.stm

In that sense we are lucky that splinter groups are so few, maybe excluding the Corsican separatists whose activities run and run on the island mainly.

[Steve Blair]

Steve Blair posted:

Steve,

That is almost spooky as I am currently reading 'The Baader-Meinhof Complex' by Stefan Aust and it is a good read on small group radicalisation, let alone how the then modern state reacted. A longer review when finished.

We all too easily forget that splinter groups, even individuals like the Unabomber, can create mayhem and take time to dismantle - the Greek November 28 group comes to mind. For later see:http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/3299349.stm

In that sense we are lucky that splinter groups are so few, maybe excluding the Corsican separatists whose activities run and run on the island mainly.

I think there's something of a tendency to forget that, in some ways at least, we've been here before when it comes to terrorists (at least in terms of small groups being able to move, self-replicate, and cause all sorts of mayhem).

[davidbfpo]

This item could go elsewhere as it fits in several threads IMHO.

'Countering Terror or Counter-Productive? Comparing Irish and Muslim Experiences of Counter-insurgency Law and Policy'

This report is a record of, and reflection on, two days of discussions that took place in Belfast in June 2009 between a group of Irish human rights and community activists and political ex-prisoners, ... and representatives of a number of Muslim groups working on similar issues today.

(from the summary)The aim of the event was to explore comparisons between Irish and Muslim experiences of the impact of counter-terror measures. Three key themes were established; The Nature of Counter-insurgency Law and Policy Experiencing Counter-insurgency Policies: ommunities, Prisoners, Families and Young People Counter-insurgency, Campaigning and Communities. The idea to hold such a meeting emerged after initial conversations about the potential value of bringing together people from the North of Ireland and Muslim communities in Britain who had experience in dealing with the impact and consequences at a community evel of state anti-terror (or counter-insurgency) strategies.

Yes, some of the groups involved come from a particular strand of opinion. So the activities of paramilitaries appear rarely - on a quick read. Making such comparisons are not unknown, in the academic world and amongst community groups.

Link:http://www.ihrc.org.uk/publications/...law-and-policy

[davidbfpo]

Red Rat, Post 12, stated in part:

Generally UK Police forces prefer to contain public order situations, preventing damage to property and minimising risk to life....then with things have died down they go in days and weeks later and arrest those involved using evidence they have gathered during the riots.

The police (PSNI) have started their arrests for the violent disorder two weeks ago:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-10791364

Referring to a juvenile arrested and at court opposing bail:

A detective sergeant who said he could connect him with the offences told the court: This individual I would say, having examined CCTV footage, would be one of the most prominent individuals within that riot. From the very start right through until the early hours of the morning his activities were wide-ranging from attacking police officers with poles, pipes and other materials to the hijacking of the vehicle which was set alight.

[davidbfpo]

Comments made after another bomb and criticism of the lack of intelligence on the 'new' enemy in 'old bottles'; link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukne...e-tactics.html

The bombing:

The fact that police received a warning that a device was left in one area and a device actually exploded in another has similarities to the Omagh bombing that we would not like to see repeated.

On the criticism:

It is time for everyone to face up to some inconvenient political truths about this violence. It is now very clear that MI5 is not up to the task of leading intelligence-gathering in the north. The SDLP believes we need an aggressive, high-profile, all-Ireland intelligence-gathering operation based on the bond of trust which has grown between police and public.

Elsewhere some, hopefully good news:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-10984738

[davidbfpo]

As former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair's memoirs sell well amidst the vairiety of reviews is this rather pithy comment on his part in the Northern Ireland peace process:http://www.opendemocracy.net/ourking...-09-06%2012:17

What struck me was the final comment:Citing the SDLP leader Seamus Mallon

In reality his whole strategy in terms of resolution of the Northern Ireland problem—I don’t use the term peace process—was “who do I buy and who do I sell”?

Sorry to be so cynical or critical that sounds like an Afghan exit strategy.

[davidbfpo]

From ICSR @ Kings College London, a new paper on the situation in Northern Ireland:

On Thursday, BBC Newsnight featured an exclusive report based on ICSR’s latest publication, Return of the Militants: Violent Dissident Republicanism, by our Associate Fellow, Dr Martyn Frampton.

According to the report, which is released today, the danger posed by groups such as the Real IRA and Continuity IRA is at its greatest level in over a decade, and is likely to increase. In the recent National Strategic Defence and Security Review, ‘residual terrorism linked to Northern Ireland’ was identified as a Tier One risk to national security. MI5 has also raised the official threat level from dissident republican groups from ‘moderate’ to ‘substantial’ and warned against the real possibility of a strike on the British mainland, in addition to the ongoing threat posed to the police, army and security services in Northern Ireland.

Return of the Militants is the most authoritative and comprehensive attempt to address the recent upsurge of violent republicanism to date. It analyses the origins and the nature of the threat posed by violent dissidents, provides a timeline of recent dissident republican activities, and introduces the various groups involved. Drawing on the expert testimony of former security service personnel, the report also examines the changing security environment and evaluates potential responses to the increase of the threat.

Link to report:http://icsr.info/paper/return-of-the...-republicanism

Link to a nine minute BBC Newsnight report:http://www.youtube.com/user/ICSRLond.../1/AUAeQl0RZlg

[Red Rat]

Approx 110 attacks in 2009.
180 plus attacks this year and counting.

For those who know the history of 'the Troubles' the same places are cropping up; West Belfast, Londonderry, S Armagh.

History repeating itself. Mainstream Irish Republicanism comes to terms, becomes part of the establishment. Fringe element dislike the terms, proclaim themselves the 'true Republicans' and carry on the struggle.

[JMA]

Approx 110 attacks in 2009.
180 plus attacks this year and counting.

For my edification, what constitutes an "attack" by definition?

[davidbfpo]

JMA asked:

For my edification, what constitutes an "attack" by definition?

I expect there is an official definition, but here goes. Attack will include: bombs, sniping, possibly armed robbery for funds, but not the preparations. Not sure about bomb hoaxes and civil disorder / rioting.

Might even be a military definition back from "The Troubles" and not the criminal law definition.

[Red Rat]

There probably is an official definition but the stats I use look at the following:

Bombs (including: UVIEDs, RCIED, proxy and VOIED and ranging from small (pipe bombs) to large (500lb culvert bombs and bigger)).

Shoots

Hoaxes and criminality (even if conducted by Republican groupings) are not included. Rioting and paramilitary style 'civil-action' beatings are also not included.

[JMA]

There probably is an official definition but the stats I use look at the following:

Bombs (including: UVIEDs, RCIED, proxy and VOIED and ranging from small (pipe bombs) to large (500lb culvert bombs and bigger)).

Shoots

Hoaxes and criminality (even if conducted by Republican groupings) are not included. Rioting and paramilitary style 'civil-action' beatings are also not included.

180 such incidents so far this year. That's a well kept secret.

I also don't hear about casualties. Are there? If not how so?