Burma: catch all thread

[anonamatic]

I could be mistaken, but a significant source of the Junta's revenue seems to flow from the gas pipeline. How feasible would a dedicated effort to sabotage the pipeline be? How would you describe or imagine the effect cycle of such a course of action? What about the assassination of military and civilian leadership, to include outside enablers of the regime? Would such activities be helpful or unhelpful? Thanks.

I don't know how helpful they'd be if they came from external sources. In that situation it's entirely possible that China could see them (understandably too) as a threat. That even when their own interests would be better served by regime change. In a lot of respects they're stuck, and that in unpleasant ways. On one hand if they want to get rid of a failed regime, they're stuck knowing that if they replace it with something that looks exactly like the last pile of thugs they'll end up with just a new pile of thugs, on the other toleration of corrupt regimes means that they're never going to realize the sort of trade and prosperity with their neighbors that they really want. In some ways (and this is a very bad & limited comparison), the US has been facing a somewhat similar problem with Mexican cartel violence. The most recent solution that the involved parties there have turned to has been intensive training of Mexican forces by Columbian police & military forces. That effort while very promising, is just getting underway, so the outcomes from it are as yet to be determined. In Burma, it might be possible for China to cut it's ties to the junta & put some support behind their opponents directly without falling into a trap of needing to create ideological and dogmatic models out of any new regime. It would be enough to say that they support self-determination for the people without insisting what that should look like. Such a stance might likely be politically palatable where other, more witlessly complex options would not be.

In part some of the key enablers are corporations like Chevron too, & even trying to get them to grow some ethics is a wretched can of worms. They'll quite happily buy their way out of any criticism, & it's because they're so intractably unethical that they're turning themselves into a valid target.

In terms of the opium trade, as far as I know 90% of it does come from Afghanistan, and an awful lot of it ends up in Arab states too. Iran for instance has a not very well reported serious problem with young people becoming addicted to opium that originates from there. I wouldn't be at all surprised if that has been a factor in muting the natural political opposition there.

[Backwards Observer]

In a lot of respects they're stuck, and that in unpleasant ways.

I appreciate that you took the time to whip up the diplomatic voodoo. Thanks for your thoughtful response.

[Dayuhan]

The degree to which the Chevron and Total stakes in the Yabama pipeline "enable" the military regime is I think substantially exaggerated. It's appealing stuff for the knee-jerk anti-corporate crowd but the argument doesn't stand up to scrutiny. The pipeline exists, and the Thais are going to buy the gas in any event: they don't give a hot round one about human rights abuses in Burma. If Total and Chevron tried to influence the Burmese government they'd simply be forced to sell their stakes, which would be bought by Chinese or Thai interests and business would go on as usual. If Total and Chevron backed out the same would happen. If retrospectively, Total and Chevron had refused to build the pipeline, someone else would have. No shortage of oil companies in Russia and China willing and able to take on a project like that. Burma's energy reserves, and the willingness of the neighbors to buy the product, are enabling factors, but placing the blame on those contracted to build the infrastructure doesn't accomplish much.

I don't see how the Chinese are in any way "stuck" by current circumstances. The status quo is acceptable to them. They don't have a US or western ally on that part of their border. The disorder in Burma has no major adverse impact on them. Burma would not be a major market for Chinese goods in any event and an open Burmese economy could emerge as a competitor in industries demanding cheap labor. The Chinese will be perfectly happy to deal with what is. Like the Thais, they don't care about the human rights abuses, any more than they do in Angola, the DRC, or Sudan. They will develop energy resources and build pipelines no matter what anyone else thinks. Of course there's a risk that pipelines could be sabotaged during a rebellion, or that a new government could cancel existing deals and nationalize projects, but the Chinese are taking similar risks in many places and apparently see them as acceptable.

I could be mistaken, but a significant source of the Junta's revenue seems to flow from the gas pipeline. How feasible would a dedicated effort to sabotage the pipeline be? How would you describe or imagine the effect cycle of such a course of action? What about the assassination of military and civilian leadership, to include outside enablers of the regime? Would such activities be helpful or unhelpful?

You'd get some publicity by whacking the CEOs of Chevron and Total, but there wouldn't be much impact on Burma. You could certainly wreck the Burmese economy (in a loose sort of way I suppose you could call it an economy) by sabotaging energy projects, or create a leadership vacuum by killing officials... but really, who cares enough to bother? There would be all manner of legal implications and risks, and whose interests are sufficiently threatened by the status quo to take them? As in many other backwaters, Burma's leaders are protected largely by their nation's economic and strategic irrelevance: lots of people will preach and deplore, but at the end of the day nobody is willing to do something about it.

[Backwards Observer]

Dayuhan, as always your stolid sobriety is invigorating. You ask,

... but really, who cares enough to bother?

What make you of this:

Ethnics, using simple unconventional warfare methods, can be an enduring thorn in the side of all those who seek to profit off of stolen ethnic lands. A target-rich environment.

Bottom line. Working now on US vital interests in the region to contain China, radical Islamists and nuclear proliferation, is a compelling reality for us. Yet we remain dangerously fixated on 5 meter targets elsewhere.

Harnessing the Unconventional Warfare power potential of ethnic resistance movements should be part of our "condition setting" calculus.

[Dayuhan]

The idea of harnessing the unconventional warfare potential of ethnic minorities in SE Asia to "contain China, radical Islamists and nuclear proliferation" seems rather farfetched to me. For one thing, I'm not at all sure the ethnic minorities have any interest in being harnessed, except to the rather limited extent to which it would serve their immediate interests. I doubt they'd be terribly interested in fighting our enemies; they have enemies of their own. I also doubt that the Chinese, the proliferators, or the radical Islamists would even notice.

If China were to occupy Burma the ethnic minorities would resist and could be "harnessed". If AQ were to establish a cell or the North Koreans (or the Burmese junta) were to set up a nuclear lab in the Shan or Karen territories some harnessing might be done... but none of these really seem like high-probability events. About as likely as a full moon on Chinese New Year, IMO, and scarcely worth planning for.

I can't see how they could be harnessed against the above in any sort of offensive capacity, as the subject of the offense would have to be rather far away, and they aren't folks that like to travel, or fight, outside their own domain.

[Backwards Observer]

Thanks Dayuhan, I appreciate your taking the time to reply. Perhaps in this Chinese New Year of the Rabbit / Cat, the peoples and polities of Asia could all take a moment to reflect on the wisdom of Confucius, who say, "Man who fart in church must sit in his own pew."

[anonamatic]

I can't see how they could be harnessed against the above in any sort of offensive capacity, as the subject of the offense would have to be rather far away, and they aren't folks that like to travel, or fight, outside their own domain.

I don't think it's reasonable to consider harnessing anyone in any of the nations bordering China for any purpose affecting China in a negative way. Objectively, things are such a mess in Burma it's entirely possible that resolution of any sort would result in anything other than a lessing of containment. Right now, abject failure is acting as containment. I'd dispute the idea that they need containment too. What I think they need is the sort of successes that teach them that totalitarian brutality is a strategy that only creates failure.

The sort of idea of containment of China isn't an invalid notion, they've got a really dysfunctional streak of hyper-nationalist imperialism going on in some quarters that does need containing. However they have to do that themselves, and have a higher need to do it than anyone else too. It's not something that's going to get accomplished through some ludicrous bankrupt notion of proxy warfare. One of the lessons that come from Iraq as well as other conflicts is just how pompous and silly that idea is. Containment through the use of force really only applies during armed conflict, outside of that I think a lot of containment stems from the strength of peace and success. By way of example, the maritime conflicts nationalist elements in China have been provoking have been contained by neighbor states perceptions of their own successes & the sentiment that they share a stake in keeping those. They don't perceive themselves as weak, or having nations built that are lacking in comparative value, so they are more invested with motivations to stand up to unreasonable international bullying.

Burma has a pile of internal ugly going on that none of it's neighbors like. The conflict there is growing worse, and it's more likely that things will get worse than they will get better. I'm not even so sure that the draft they just instituted won't end up training the army that will end up shooting them.

[AdamG]

A US warship intercepted and halted a North Korean vessel that was bound for Burma and was suspected of carrying missile technology, US media report.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-13747912

[davidbfpo]

An IISS Strategic Comment, which opens with:

A year after Myanmar's first elections in 20 years, the country has taken important steps towards reforming its political system and its economy. It has surprised Burmese citizens and the world with a series of important liberalising measures. These have not yet, however, led to a relaxation of economic sanctions by the United States and European countries.

Ends with:

.. after almost 50 years in exile and said upon his return: 'They have decided to change. It's not what we called for, but there are changes. Even if they are pretending to change, we should push them so the change becomes irreversible.'

Link:http://www.iiss.org/publications/str...opeful-change/

[davidbfpo]

Much has been happening in Burma of late, mainly diplomatic, but after fighting the central government since 1948 a Karen group has agreed to a ceasefire:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...en-rebels.html

[AdamG]

YANGON (Reuters) - Rohingya Muslim insurgents said on Sunday they have no option but to fight what they called Myanmar state-sponsored terrorism to defend the Rohingya community, and they demanded that the Rohingya be consulted on all decisions affecting their future.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-m...-idUSKBN1EW03V

From January 5th -

Rohingya Muslim insurgents ambushed a military vehicle in Myanmar's Rakhine State, wounding five members of the security forces, State media and officials said, and the rebels claimed responsibility for the rare attack.
*
The military said “extremist Bengali terrorists ARSA" carried out the Friday attack on a truck taking someone to hospital.
“A vehicle ... was attacked by 20 insurgents from the mountain using homemade mines and small arms,” the government said.
The military said there were about 10 attackers involved.

http://www.thehindu.com/news/interna...le22387098.ece

The fighting continues from last August. See also SJW Blog
Why Myanmar’s Government Won’t Negotiate With Rohingya Insurgents
http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ad.php?t=26013

[davidbfpo]

If you need a book this might help; from the publisher's website:

Ibrahim’s searing book documents the slow-motion genocide of the Muslim Rohingyas and exposes the culpability of the Buddhist clergy in fomenting the religious cleansing of Myanmar.

This is a new, revised edition and a paperback costs £12.99.
Link:http://www.hurstpublishers.com/book/...eid=80d42c7c0a

[davidbfpo]

A decent backgrounder on the crisis that outsiders probably think is new, when in fact there is a long history and recent reporting I have seen made almost no mention of the history involved. Let alone the communal and ethnic problems within Burma.
Link:https://thediplomat.com/2018/01/rohi...-of-partition/

[AdamG]

Reference a survivor returning to the scene of the August slaughter,

They are among more than five mass graves, all previously unreported, that have been confirmed by The Associated Press through multiple interviews with more than two dozen survivors in Bangladesh refugee camps and through time-stamped cellphone videos. The Myanmar government regularly claims such massacres of the Rohingya never happened, and has acknowledged only one mass grave containing 10 “terrorists” in the village of Inn Din. However, the AP’s reporting shows a systematic slaughter of Rohingya Muslim civilians by the military, with help from Buddhist neighbors — and suggests the presence of many more graves with many more people.

The Massacre
Survivors said that the soldiers carefully planned the Aug. 27 attack, and then deliberately tried to hide what they had done. They came to the slaughter armed not only with rifles, knives, rocket launchers and grenades, but also with shovels to dig pits and acid to burn away faces and hands so that the bodies could not be identified. Two days before the attack, villagers say, soldiers were seen buying 12 large containers of acid at a nearby village’s market.
The killing began around noon, when more than 200 soldiers swept into Gu Dar Pyin from the direction of a Buddhist village to the south, firing their weapons. The Rohingya who could move fast enough ran toward the north or toward a river in the east, said Mohammad Sha, 37, a shop owner and farmer.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/apos-coul...044549546.html

[AdamG]

YANGON (Reuters) - A court in Myanmar declined to grant bail on Thursday for two Reuters journalists accused of violating the country’s Official Secrets Act, although their defense lawyer said information in documents at the center of the case was publicly available.

Wa Lone, 31, and Kyaw Soe Oo, 27, had worked on Reuters coverage of a crisis in Rakhine state, where an army crackdown on insurgents that started on Aug. 25 has triggered the flight of nearly 690,000 Rohingya Muslims to neighboring Bangladesh, according to the United Nations.
The reporters were detained on Dec. 12 after they had been invited to meet police officers over dinner in Yangon. They have told relatives they were arrested almost immediately after being handed some documents at a restaurant by two officers they had not met before.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-m...-idUSKBN1FK3C2