How a ‘Good War’ in Afghanistan Went Bad

[jonSlack]

Reuters - Taliban offensive unlikely in east Afghanistan-US

WASHINGTON, Jan 23 (Reuters) - A senior U.S. military commander said on Wednesday he did not expect the Taliban to mount a major offensive in eastern Afghanistan this spring, but experts warned of rising violence and a stronger insurgency.

Army Maj. Gen. David Rodriguez, the top commander of NATO troops in eastern Afghanistan, said Afghan security forces and other civilian authorities had established a stronger presence in the east of the country.

"I don't think there will be a big spring offensive this year," said Rodriguez, on a visit back to the United States.

"The people of Afghanistan don't want the Taliban back and the strength of their institutions has grown significantly in the last year," he said at the Pentagon.

[Norfolk]

I read that report earlier today and I just can't get my head around what it's reporting. Maybe it's right - but it just doesn't make much sense. As one commentator on this piece remarked, if the Taleban in eastern Afghanistan aren't quite coming out to fight like they might, it's more likely because they don't have to, rather than that they can't.

Paddy Ashdown is supposed to touch-down in Afghanistan today, and hopefully he may be able to take advantage of some fault lines and especially the recent split between the Taleban leadership and one of its senior commanders over operations in Pakistan. Or at the very least, be able to go to work on making deals with certain tribes and leaders of the Pashtuns to be able to accomplish something akin to the "Anbar Awakening" in Iraq.

At least one of the Marine BLT's that's coming soon to Afghanistan is heading to Kandahar to join the NATO contingent there. That will go a long way to helping to shore up the resolve of at least one NATO-member Government to stay in the fight. Now if there happened to be a nice chunk of Marine Air coming along with them...

There's going to need it if they can get it. They'll be fighting not only the local Pashtuns and of course Chechens, Uzbeks, and Arabs, but these same guys using Soviet-style conventional war TTP's right down to the kinds of trench systems and layout of field fortifications they use. Cold War-type training is actually more useful in parts of Afghanistan than some might think.