Eritrea: catch all

[JJackson]

After posting yesterday I read this today on the UN boundary commission's frustration re Ethiopia/Eritrea
Warning of new Horn of Africa war : http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/6982244.stm
and note from a Guardian ( http://www.guardian.co.uk/alqaida/st...164165,00.html ) post that both Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys & Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed are in attendance at the Asmara congress.

While I am posting links here are a few more that may be of interest to those following this area.
Good map of oil producing areas in Sudan
http://www.hrw.org/reports/2003/sudan1103/2.htm
and more data on oil production
http://www.eia.doe.gov/cabs/Sudan/pdf.pdf
Juba Post comments on referendum (NB this is in english so most of the comments - predominantly pro independance - are from the diaspora and may not be representative of the population as a whole)
http://www.k2-media.org/jubapost/go/...6&recordID=116
and this article on concerns re an impending north/south demarcation dispute
http://www.k2-media.org/jubapost/go/...=6&recordID=93
Sudan Interim constitution in english
http://www.mpil.de/shared/data/pdf/i...ic_version.pdf

[JJackson]

New Somali alliance threatens war

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/6990928.stm

"We have two-track options - first is the liberation of Somalia through military struggle, the second is through diplomatic efforts," said Zakariya Mahamud Abdi, spokesman for the Somali Congress

"We warn Ethiopia to withdraw immediately. It is now or never and in a few weeks they will not have a route to withdraw," Abdi said.

[Beelzebubalicious]

I just found this small article in the USIP Special Report on "Terrorism in the Horn of Africa" dated January 2004. A bit dated, but interesting given recent events between the USG and Eritrea and overall US Policy in the GWOT.

Eritrea’s inclusion in the “coalition of the willing” threatens to widen the gap between moderate and radical Eritrean Muslims due to the regime’s use of the “war against terrorism” to eliminate all dissent.

and...

Outlook and Recommendations

The United States fostered democratization and constitutional rule in Eritrea from 1991 to 2001. In 2001, when democratizing Eritreans demanded constitutional governance, the U.S. decision to refrain from taking an unequivocal stand against the systematic elimination of pro-democracy advocates sent the message that only acts of violence and terror—not democratic reform—will bring about change. Current U.S. policy in Eritrea vacillates between two poles: unconditional support for a regime that joined
the “war on terror” and episodic signals of disapproval for the regime’s crackdown on dissent.

U.S. policy should disengage from the increasing authoritarianism of the current regime which has alienated the majority of its civilian—secular and non-secular population. Failure to do so may lead to growing support for more militant elements within EIJM and the ENA.

[JJackson]

Earlier in this thread (post #18) I voiced my concerns regarding the medium term danger to the stability of Sudan in particular, and the Horn in general, having more to do with the much more formidable SPLA than the problems in Darfur. The North’s failure to make progress with the boundary commission, and various other outstanding differences, seems to be exposing cracks already:-

Sudan's southern rebels walk out
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7039616.stm

The BBC title refers to them as rebels but they are constitutionally a major part of the government and it is difficult to see how the the president remains any legitimacy without their inclusion.

[JJackson]

I don't think it will come as a galloping shock to anyone following this story but it is now official: the deadline has past without any movement on the ground.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7120834.stm

This story is surreal, bizarre and extremely frightening. We are in danger of having a war over a boarder that both parties now claim to accept.

[JJackson]

Sudan clashes prompt UN pull-out

The UN has withdrawn non-essential staff from Sudan's town of Abyei after a day of clashes between government forces and southern former rebels.

Abyei is the key to Sudanese Oil and to the north south problem. The interim constitution affords it a special status at the time of the constitutionally promised 2011 referendum. (links and more details in posts #18 & 20)

[JJackson]

Navies to tackle Somali pirates

The vote means nations will be able to send warships to tackle pirates
The UN Security Council has unanimously voted to allow countries to send warships into Somalia's territorial waters to tackle pirates.

The resolution permits countries that have the agreement of Somalia's interim government to use any means to repress acts of piracy for the next six months.

Twenty-six ships have been attacked by pirates in the waters in the past year.

The vote came as the UN launched separate peace talks with factions involved in Somalia's conflict.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7432612.stm

The article also covers the UN backed Djibouti talks. The problem is the parties attending - but not talking directly to each other - are the interim government (who have no support or power beyond that of their Ethiopian military backers & US political backers) and the ARS (the same mob that formed as the ALS in Asmara last Sept.). The ARS are mainly old UIC members but don't including the Al-Shabab wing which seems to be becoming the pre-eminent force on the ground. So it is unclear who - if anyone - the parties not talking represent.

From the Jamestown Foundation last Oct.
Splits Developing in Somali Insurgency By Sydney Irving

This rather strange piece on Afewerki stealing $10million of the ARS's money.
http://www.mareeg.com/fidsan.php?sid=5986&tirsan=3

As always when dealing with this area it is tricky to know what to believe.

(LOL I just ran the spell check and was a little hasty with the 'change all' button - I think I have replaced all the arse's back to ARS's)