Basra transition

[MattC86]

How soon do we expect to see the full withdrawal of British troops, now that they're at the airport?

And what do we expect MNF to do about the British departure? Surely they're not planning on ceding the southern portion of the country to the Mahdi Army or whatever group of bozos is currently licking their chops in anticipation, right?

Not that I know what forces are available. . .

Matt

[JJackson]

Thanks for the link Tequila.
Very interesting little article and insight in to the endemic corruption and the way it relates to the groups jockeying for power and influence. Basra, as the first area in which the fledgling Iraqi institutions have been given a go at running things for themselves, is going to be an interesting experiment. Unfortunately it is not the ideal place to conduct this experiment as it is so important to the Iraqi economy and to supply lines for forces up country. Apart form that I suspect it will be fairly typical in the way power will be divided up between the Government, Army, Police, Militia groups and local families/clans etc. The only major factor not acting in this arena is inter Sunni/Shia/Kurd factors which will have to be overlaid in some other areas. British forces might be invited in to assist in the removal of extra-national players trying to muscle in on the action but I very much doubt any interference with the gravy train would be brooked. In this particular situation a coast guard presence may work but the smugglers would probably find a work around or return to direct assault on forces operating them. Attempts to rid an entire country of an entrenched system of graft and patronage is a little beyond the mandate or capabilities of the coalition forces and the advantages of an honest economic and governmental system is something they will have to workout for themselves over the next century or two.

[tequila]

Petraeus sees no need now for US troops in Basra - AFP, 12 Sep.

According to Petraeus, our plans for Basra are ... to do nothing. Tom Ricks said yesterday that Basra today is what Baghdad will look like in a year. I think we'll be lucky to get that, frankly.

[tequila]

Basra: after the British - CSMONITOR, 17 Sep.

When British forces took Basra on April 6, 2003, their artillery damaged a statue of an Iraqi soldier straddling a writhing shark. It was commissioned by Saddam Hussein to commemorate the end of the Iran-Iraq war in 1988. Looters have stolen the soldier.

But the shark, meant to represent Iran, remains.

The Islamic Republic's influence is indeed felt throughout Basra, Iraq's second-largest city where Shiite parties, militiamen, and criminal gangs all are locked in a vicious fight for power. The streets in the provincial capital are even abuzz with talk of Iranian-trained sleeper cells at the ready.
With the British exit earlier this month, which some analysts say is a prelude to the 5,500-strong contingent's complete withdrawal from Iraq, comes great uncertainty for this city: Will Iran bolster its strategic foothold? Will the Shiite militias control the streets? Is the Iraqi Army strong enough to mediate the fight between rival parties?

What happens here may provide a window on the future for the rest of Iraq ...