Quote Originally Posted by kit View Post
My guess is it's to lie low, giving the American's a chance to claim "progress" and begin withdrawing. After that's in motion (once started, it won't be stopped), he'll make his move take over the government.
I believe Kit is quite right. The positive impacts of the current "surge" include the increased targeting of both AQ and Shia militia's. Thus by freezing the Mahdi Militia Sadr likely hopes to prevent further targeting and attrition of his militia. The likely long-term intent for Sadr is to retain a measure of military power in the event the U.S. Congress or Presidential elections force the U.S. to significantly or completely withdraw U.S. forces. If this happens Sadr and others must be prepared to contend with increased ethnic conflict as the Sunni and Shia continue to struggle for control. My guess is right now Sadr is betting on that drawdown as a consequence of reporting on political events in the U.S. Bottom line is Sadr must retain his military power to retain his influence.