Sadr and Jaysh al-Mahdi

[Dennis]

I don't trust al Sadr enough to believe anything he says. He has an ulterior motive.

I don't disagree with that assessment, but it seems to me that this is a no win situation for him.

If violence does stop immediatelly due to this then there is absolutely no doubt in anyone's mind that the MM was behind a majority of the recent violence, not that there was a lot of boubt about that in the first place.

If it continues then it will be percieved that he has lost control of the group.

I think I will be more worried if this does reduce violence.

Even more so if due to the reduced violence, in conjunction with the withdrawal of British forces in the South, the US doesn't apply enough forces there.

[kit]

I don't disagree with that assessment, but it seems to me that this is a no win situation for him.

If violence does stop immediatelly due to this then there is absolutely no doubt in anyone's mind that the MM was behind a majority of the recent violence, not that there was a lot of boubt about that in the first place.

If it continues then it will be percieved that he has lost control of the group.

I think I will be more worried if this does reduce violence.

Even more so if due to the reduced violence, in conjunction with the withdrawal of British forces in the South, the US doesn't apply enough forces there.

Apply what forces there? We've commited all we have and sending some to the south would require taking them from someplace else in Iraq, leaving the door open for al Queda or some other group to return.

[Dennis]

Apply what forces there? We've commited all we have and sending some to the south would require taking them from someplace else in Iraq, leaving the door open for al Queda or some other group to return.

I am not disputing that fact; but if the British leave then we will have to cover down on it somehow.

[tequila]

Sadr suspends military operations - NYTIMES, 30 Aug.

The radical Shiite cleric Moktada al-Sadr said Wednesday that he was suspending for six months his Mahdi Army militia’s operations, including attacks on American troops, only hours after his fighters waged running street battles with Iraqi government forces for control of Karbala, one of Iraq’s holiest cities.

The surprise declaration was widely taken as a tacit acknowledgment of the damage done to his movement’s reputation by two days of Shiite-on-Shiite in-fighting, which killed 52 people, wounded 279 and forced thousands of pilgrims to flee birthday celebrations for the Mahdi, one of Shiite Islam’s most revered medieval saints.

Mr. Sadr’s aides declared an unequivocal end to all militia operations. Ahmed al-Shaibani, the chief of Mr. Sadr’s media office in Najaf, confirmed that this “includes suspending the taking up of arms against occupiers,” a reference to American-led coalition troops ...

[goesh]

Iran sees its coming influence and slice of the oil pie in Iraq after America cuts and runs
We will exit and Iran will step down from its nukes, that's the deal
to politically justify the exit, there has to be fewer attacks on our troops
this can only be accomplished by Sadr reining in the elements he controls
his orders for a cease fire have come from Tehran
he can now use American forces to purge his own ranks that have fractured and who are refusing to obey him, plus he will provide Intel on AQ
he will fully consolodate his power and be a minor Iranian Caliph in Iraq, though his luxary will never equal or come close to Saddam's
We never killed him because we knew Iran could and would at any moment if necessary

There is a real puppet master in Iran the likes the world hasn't seen in a couple of decades and it ain't Iran's President. Sadly his power has come from the clear dissent amongst State, DOD, CIA and the Presidency. Not one freakin' time were 3 out of the 4 on the same page in this war, the prerequisite for strategic implementation. As Bogart would say, " play it again, Uncle Sam"

[tequila]

Sadr May Revoke 'Freeze' on Militia - Washington Post, 31 Aug.

Radical Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr told his followers Thursday that he would rescind his order "freezing" the operations of his powerful militia if military raids on his offices did not cease in the next few days, according to officials of Sadr's organization.

Sadr's message came the day after he issued a public statement to his Mahdi Army to cease its operations for up to six months so he could restructure the group. But Sadr was forced to reconsider after a raid Thursday by U.S. and Iraqi forces on his office in the southern city of Karbala led to the deaths of six Mahdi Army members and the arrest of 30 others, the officials said.

"When you see the enemy is attacking you, you have to defend yourself," said Alaa Abid Jiaara, a Mahdi Army member in Sadr's headquarters in Kufa, about 90 miles south of Baghdad. "Today we have seen the occupation forces and Iraqi forces violate the Sadr followers and their offices and holy symbols. This means it is the duty of the followers of Sadr to defend against them ..."

[Dennis]

http://ebird.afis.mil/ebfiles/e20070912543788.html

The secret dialogue has been going on since at least early 2006, but appeared to yield a tangible result only in the last week -- with relative calm in an area of west Baghdad that has been among the capital's most dangerous sections.

Negotiation with MM was actually happening much earlier than this. I had the Al Shulla area of Baghdad from AUG-DEC 05. The unit that was there previous to mine had established the contact and I continued the relationship. Our BCT was moved out to Abu Gharaib in Jan following the election. Up to that time I had been meeting pretty regularly with a rep from the local MM to manage and monitor the neighborhood watch groups in the town. We were able to make great strides but we pretty much left them and the town councils hanging when we handed the area over to the IA in Jan 06. By Feb all the towns that we were in previously were in full fledge kung-fu stance and we were moved back in by Mar.