Originally Posted by
Rex Brynen
Personally, I don't think holding Sadr (or, for that matter, resisting Sistani's pressure) was ever a realistic option. Whatever his many sins, its just not feasible to promote democracy on the one hand while detaining a popular party leader in the country on the other. On the contrary, it would have just burnished his Iraqi nationalist/anti-occupation credentials.
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My sense is that JAM has always been a largely urban phenomenon, and I suspect that urban base is solid enough that it won't be shrunk too much the (very important) developments outside Baghdad, Basra, etc.--especially given the extent to which the Shi'ite militias are seen by urban Shi'ites to have provided (post-Samarra) protection in the face of Sunni attacks. From afar it seems that among middle class Iraqi Shi'ites (many of whom once looked down upon Sadr's "unwashed masses" with disdain) there's a feeling that "he's a thug, but at least he's OUR thug."
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