Quote Originally Posted by omarali50 View Post
1. There is a jihadist core in pakistan (not in "sanctuaries" alone, but in the govt, in the Islamist parties, especially in the intelligence agencies) and they are fleecing the Americans while ruthlessly protecting their minimum interests (even if that means sacrificing a lot of foot-soldiers).
2. Pakistan is not a very strong state. No one in the ruling elite actually wants to try to fight off an unhappy America or even to survive without monthly handouts. The bluff works only because America lets it work.
Is this what is going on? I think there are two elites the Military and political dynasties.
1] I would see as the Military who are good Muslims but not Jihadists. Their primary interest relates to India and while they are very happy to use US tax dollars to beef up their forces they want them as protection against their enemy not the US’s (the same is going on in Yemen).
2] Is the political class, and all who get rich through their patronage. They have a very difficult task they want to feather their own nests with those nice US tax dollars but their electorate are absolutely clear who their enemy is - the US and India probably in that order. How do you do enough to appease the Americans without getting lynched by your own people and without letting a US or Indian proxy establish itself on your northern flank.
What has not been discussed much is China who are very close to the Pakistanis and also have a vested interest in not having a US or Indian proxy in Afghanistan. To date they have not needed to take any action in their own interest but if the US makes its attacks on its Pakistani allies more overt or India looked like gaining significant influence that may change and needs to be factored in.