Sanctuary or Ungoverned Spaces:identification, symptoms and responses

[Dayuhan]

AQ in Yemen may be able to sneak an explosive cartridge on a cargo plane or make jockey shorts that might go bang but those are not ops on the scale of 9-11. In order to do something like that you need a country that likes you to live in.

Ramzi Yousef hatched an ambitious plan to blow up airliners, assassinate the Pope, and fly a commercial jet into Langley from an apartment in downtown Manila. He might have pulled it off if he hadn't gotten sloppy.

[carl]

Ramzi Yousef hatched an ambitious plan to blow up airliners, assassinate the Pope, and fly a commercial jet into Langley from an apartment in downtown Manila. He might have pulled it off if he hadn't gotten sloppy.

He did indeed. He also attended an AQ training camp in Afghanistan I believe. He hid out in Pakistan for a while. Khalid Sheikh Mohammed is his uncle. And he finally got picked up in Pakistan. So I would say, his case buttresses my point.

[Dayuhan]

He did indeed. He also attended an AQ training camp in Afghanistan I believe. He hid out in Pakistan for a while. Khalid Sheikh Mohammed is his uncle. And he finally got picked up in Pakistan. So I would say, his case buttresses my point.

They go to the places that are available. Take those places away, will they cease to exist or will they simply go somewhere else?

Also worth bearing in mind that if our efforts to deprive AQ of safe haven drags us into extended occupation of Muslim lands, constant friction with Muslims, and a constant static presence in places where out people can be targets, we are probably giving AQ more than we are taking from them. I have little doubt that AQ wants and needs to maintain US occupation of Muslim territory.

[carl]

They go to the places that are available. Take those places away, will they cease to exist or will they simply go somewhere else?

They will try to go somewhere else. The point is that none of the places they may try to go will be as propitious as the place they are in now. Less propitious in their business means dead.

Also worth bearing in mind that if our efforts to deprive AQ of safe haven drags us into extended occupation of Muslim lands, constant friction with Muslims, and a constant static presence in places where out people can be targets, we are probably giving AQ more than we are taking from them. I have little doubt that AQ wants and needs to maintain US occupation of Muslim territory.

And if our efforts to deprive AQ of safe haven don't drag us into extended occupation of Muslim lands but just deprive AQ of safe haven, we, and the world, are quite better off. If by some miracle we can pry them out of Pak Army/ISIstan and Afghanistan doesn't open up for them, there aren't any good places to go.

[Dayuhan]

They will try to go somewhere else. The point is that none of the places they may try to go will be as propitious as the place they are in now. Less propitious in their business means dead.

Or else it means you adapt. Without a safe haven they will not be able to do the jihadi grunt training they used to do in the camps in Afghanistan and Pakistan. They may still be able to mount terror attacks.

And if our efforts to deprive AQ of safe haven don't drag us into extended occupation of Muslim lands but just deprive AQ of safe haven, we, and the world, are quite better off. If by some miracle we can pry them out of Pak Army/ISIstan and Afghanistan doesn't open up for them, there aren't any good places to go.

Hypothetically that would be wonderful, but that's not how it's worked out. We have been dragged into extended occupation of Muslim lands, and we have not deprived AQ of safe haven. Possibly we have in Afghanistan, but they have other places.

In a sense we have made ourselves safer by giving them what they wanted: once we are committed to extended occupation, the last thing they want to do is boost our resolve, so they've little incentive to mount further major attacks. If we withdraw, that risk returns.