I agree with Steve, I'm not sold. how do you explain that the two biggest COIN successes thus far in Iraq were accomplished by heavily Armored units - i.e. 3 ACR and 1/1 AD? Under this logic, the light units should have much better success records, but they don't, and in the case of some of them, much worse.

I think the personalities and leadership styles/philosophies of the CO's had much more to do with it than the tools employed. It also picks two easy examples - why not try 1AD in Baghdad, 3rd ID OIF 3, or 1st Cav OIF 2 and contrast....

The historical argument that lighter forces are more successful at coin over the long run is much stronger, IMO, but the Iraq argument doesn't seem to be nearly as strong.