Israel's raid on Syria: Prelude to a nuke crisis?

[Rex Brynen]

This source is of questionable value. I gave up reading it when they reported sometime ago OBL was moving to Iraq! Even Israelis caution as to citing it.

Yep, agreed.

[Jedburgh]

CSIS, 24 Oct 07:

The Israeli “Nuclear Reactor Strike” and SyrianWeapons of Mass Destruction: A Background Analysis

The circumstances surrounding an Israeli strike on what may have been a Syrian nuclear reactor are still unclear. It is not yet certain that Syria was building a reactor, and if it were, what capacity it would have for producing fissile material, when it might have produced enough material for a weapon, and how Syria planned to deploy any nuclear capability it developed. Major questions remain about the level of North Korean support Syria did or did not receive, and about the level of Syrian-Iranian cooperation if any.

There are, however, several things that are clear about Syria’s position, and that put any Syrian nuclear efforts in context. In brief:

- Syria has fallen far behind Israel in conventional capability and has no practical chance of catching up.

- Syrian capabilities for asymmetric warfare, and the its ability to use allies like the Hezbollah, can irritate or provoke Israel, but not defeat it or deter it from using its massive supremacy in long-range precision strike capability.

- Syrian chemical and possible biological capabilities do not give it a meaningful deterrent to Israel, do not rival Israel’s status as a nuclear power, and might do more to justify an Israeli use of nuclear weapons in retaliation than achieve strategic benefits.

- The Syrian air force is approaching obsolescence as a force. Although Syria has some “modern aircraft,” it lacks the mix of airborne and groundbased sensor and battle management assets, the mix of munitions, IS&R assets, and sortie sustainability it needs to compete. It faces de facto air supremacy from the Israeli air force.

- Missiles are Syria’s only way of striking at Israel with some confidence of success, but Syria still faces steadily more effective Israeli ballistic missile defenses, plus Israeli ability to target and destroy Syria’s larger missile systems with Israel’s precision strike assets.

Seen from this perspective, a Syrian effort to achieve a “break out” by covertly developing nuclear weapons has a kind of logic.....

Complete 24 page paper at the link.


By the way, Debkafile falls into the same category as WorldNetDaily, the Northeast Intelligence Network and The Enquirer. In the main, it is piled high with steaming crap. At best, it is extremely unreliable as a source. Yet, if you're willing to spend the time trawling through their muck, there are occasionally leads to be gleaned that can be followed to useful information. But you are far better served by the vast spectrum of consistently reliable sources openly available rather than wasting time with their nonsense.

[Jedburgh]

CSIS, 19 Nov 07: Iran, Israel and Nuclear War: An Illustrative Scenario Analysis

The attached briefing provides the material used in a scenario analysis and interactive game that looks at some of the consequences of a future nuclear exchange between Israel and Iran, and the possible impact of its expansion to cover targets in Syria, Egypt, and the Gulf.

There is no way to predict the forces each side will have in the future, or how they might target those forces and use them in war. It does seem clear, however, that both sides would probably be forced to target the other's population centers in any scenario that escalated beyond an initial demonstrative strike.

It also seems likely that such a conflict would quickly become existential in the sense that both sides would seek to inflict the maximum possible casualties on its opponent, and to destroy its ability to recover as a nation.

The analysis indicates that Israeli might have the near to mid-term advantage in such a struggle, at least in terms of the ability to inflict more damage on the Persian ethnic population and economy of Iran. Iran is much larger than Israel, but its population is heavily urbanized and extremely vulnerable to boosted and thermonuclear weapons.

This advantage seems likely to continue until Iran obtained boosted or thermonuclear weapons. The outcome would be so costly to both sides, however, any such advantage would little or no practical value. It is unclear that either nation could reconstitute itself on anything like a prewar basis, if at all.

Complete 77 slide presentation in a pdf file at the link.

[bourbon]

Sy Hersh fwiw:

A Strike in the Dark: What did Israel bomb in Syria? by Seymour M. Hersh. The New Yorker, February 11, 2008.

That notion was echoed by the ambassador of an Israeli ally who is posted in Tel Aviv. “The truth is not important,” the ambassador told me. “Israel was able to restore its credibility as a deterrent. That is the whole thing. No one will know what the real story is.”

[davidbfpo]

Reported by The Daily Telegraph (UK) under the headline Israel says Syria nuclear base was raid target: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.../wsyria102.xml

davidbfpo

[Rex Brynen]

The video of the USG presentation on the Syrian reactor at al-Kibar, and Syrian-North Korean nuclear cooperation, can be found on the NYT website.

[davidbfpo]

Via a Twitter alert a rather glowing Israeli article on the intelligence aspects of this action taken now four years ago. The sub-title:

Israel has never admitted to the 2007 bombing of a Syrian nuclear reactor. This is the inside story of how the facility's existence was established and how it was destroyed

I was not aware of the follow-on action, so read till the end.

Link:http://www.haaretz.com/weekend/week-...emium-1.457362