Terrorism: What's Coming

[Tom OC]

I agree with walrus. After reading the paper, I was struck by how restrained the authors were. In the words of one of them, they wanted to avoid the dangers of sociological determinism. While none of them missed the opportunity to display their knowledge of historical detail and make idiographic generalizations, the only reason they gave for avoiding sociological generalization was that the Internet and the media have changed things. Frankly, I don't like this whole "mutation" analogy. If something's anomalous, then there has to be a pattern and trend. If terrorism is a symptom, then there has to be a cause. Discover the pattern, find the cause, fix the problem. Perhaps the authors were blindsided by a mandate to sound like fortune tellers. I tell ya, though. I'm gaining more respect for Gunaratna. I used to think he was a bit alarmist, but he wrote a pretty solid piece here.

[kehenry1]

This means that the weaker side is denied any opportunity of advancing its case save terrorism - stealthy unpredictable random attacks against targets of opportunity in an effort to overcome the power asymmetry.

Look at the causes of some of the terrorism.

Yes, this is an issue. However, I have read Crenshaw's "Organization of Terror" and one of her points was about "self-selecting" terrorists. In other words, they don't necessarily have the same grievances as others, have not tried other methods to resolve any grievances, but generally look for a group or organization to join in order to become part of a "group" and act out their internal issues violently.

That is the "mutating factor". Other groups or individuals latch on to the group simply to be part of it, part of a movement, even if they don't have similar grievances or any at all. They may be drawn to it as a source of excitement or because it is a group they can associate with. Much like how people join criminal gangs.

I think that Adnan Gadahn is an excellent example. He went looking for a group, he was not part of the original "grievance" group. He may have had "grievances", but they were general and not specific to any one ideology. He was looking for something to join and act with.

The question is can we combat these organizations and their ideology quickly enough so that it does not engage as many. We need to work on making it unacceptable in the general community. This is just about the best leverage and influence that you can get. That is why the message must include a moral aspect. That is what is most likely to persuade others not to do it, though there is no absolute assurance.

second issue, we need to recognize communities, like ours on this site, that are outside of the most recognized "communities". It is these types of communities that are "mutating" rapidly, that we have largely left intact and that have the ability to organize "global" activities. News reports and general media don't have the same ability to engage individuals.

However, outside influences can impact electronic communities and vice versa. We need to recognize that and make it part of our plan.

[charter6]

The problem is, though, that the cost of entry to war has been lowered to such a great degree by advances in technology that smaller and smaller groups are progressively able to cause greater and greater strategic disruptions. While the root causes of the dissatisfaction of some terrorist movements obviously need to be addressed, that may not alone "solve" the terrorism problem that is likely to face the West and the state more generally as the 21st century progresses. There are always going to be disaffected elements in any society, further technological advances are likely to further increase the ability of those disaffected societal elements to cause damage disproportional to their size.

When a skilled individual with a $1,000 laptop can wage war on the United States, talking about root causes becomes less relevant to the problem.

[Sean Osborne]

The authors missed the 25-meter target in this report.

I would suggest reading LTC Joseph Myers essay review on The Qur'anic Concept of War in the Winter06 edition of Parameters.

To read the Jihadist asymetric warfighting doctrine, particularly the decentralized individual jihad, find a copy of Da’wat al-muqawamah al-islamiyyah al-‘alamiyyah (The Call for a Global Islamic Resistance) by Mustafa Setmariam Nasar (a/k/a: Abu Mus’ab al-Suri). There is an online english language version. I'd include a link here but I've msiplaced the URL.

[Jedburgh]

The authors missed the 25-meter target in this report.

I would suggest reading LTC Joseph Myers essay review on The Qur'anic Concept of War in the Winter06 edition of Parameters.

To read the Jihadist asymetric warfighting doctrine, particularly the decentralized individual jihad, find a copy of Da’wat al-muqawamah al-islamiyyah al-‘alamiyyah (The Call for a Global Islamic Resistance) by Mustafa Setmariam Nasar (a/k/a: Abu Mus’ab al-Suri). There is an online english language version. I'd include a link here but I've msiplaced the URL.

None of the essays in the paper at the top of thread are really about terrorist ideology or doctrine. However, there are several other threads in this sub-forum that specifically discuss those influences. I suggest you scroll through the entire Adversary/Threat forum to find the appropriate discussion thread.

[Sean Osborne]

None of the essays in the paper at the top of thread are really about terrorist ideology or doctrine.

Physical jihad - terrorism per se - is 110% rooted in ideological jihad - terrorist ideology and doctrine. Period.

If one doesn't comprehend the ideology or the doctrine of the terrorist then one cannot possibly hope to comprehend at tactic of terrorism used by the individual or group of Islamic jihadists (terrorists).

This has been a fact regarding Islamic terrorism since Muhammed's first military adventure, and the subsequent conquest of non-Muslim lands external to the Arabian peninsula in the past 1,375 years. The works I cited are the basics to understanding the preeminent type of terrorism in the world today.

[Jedburgh]

Physical jihad - terrorism per se - is 110% rooted in ideological jihad - terrorist ideology and doctrine. Period.

Sorry, but the world does not operate in black and white. Although ideology is a critical component of jihadist terrorism, it is certainly not the only influence nor the single root of what we see in Jihadist terrorism today.

If one doesn't comprehend the ideology or the doctrine of the terrorist then one cannot possibly hope to comprehend the tactic of terrorism used by the individual or group of Islamic jihadists (terrorists).

I do agree with you that understanding ideology and doctrine is key to understanding the operational characteristics of the terrorist group in question. However, how their ideology and operations are influenced by a myriad other factors is even more important. Understanding the former is but a learning step to enable the CT analyst to perform the latter.

Again, if you wish to discuss terrorist ideology specifically, whether just Al Qa'ida or violent Salafists in general, then look through the Adversary/Threat forum for the appropriate discussion thread.