....These essays were all written as we are engaged in a worldwide struggle against a jihadist terrorist enterprise inspired largely by al Qaeda’s ideology and its tactical successes. There are other conflicts involving the use of terrorist tactics, to be sure, but the authors here agree that Islam’s violent jihadists currently represent the most serious threat to Western security and that they will continue to do so for decades—a struggle that will transcend the present generation.
There is consensus that while al Qaeda does represent a new and more serious threat, much about al Qaeda is neither new nor unique. That is the positive aspect of the long view reflected here. It suggests that this wave of terrorism, like others before it, eventually will pass, although it has years to run. It will be a long war, but ultimately, we should prevail.
Indeed, we have achieved a measure of success in reducing the operational capabilities of al Qaeda central, although even that may be only temporary. Authorities have thwarted many terrorist plots. But, the authors agree, we have utterly failed tosuccessfully address the issue of continued radicalization and recruitment. In this dimension of the struggle, we are not winning.
The current counterterrorist approach is exclusively operational and therefore inadequate. The authors agree that we need a strategy that is multidimensional, that more effectively engages the international community, and that does a better job of preserving basic values, even while changing the doctrines and rules that govern our response. This challenges the official U.S. view that we have a comprehensive counterterrorist strategy and that it is working.
Finally, despite healthy caution about making predictions, there is consensus that whether it is in al Qaeda’s jihad or in future, still-undefined struggles, the employment of terrorist tactics will almost certainly persist as a means of political expression, as a mode of armed conflict. Today’s jihadists have inherited terrorism’s methods from previous struggles. They have added some innovations of their own and demonstrated new possibilities. Their repertoire will be inherited by tomorrow’s terrorists. And all the authors of this volume agree, there will be terrorists tomorrow....
Terrorism: What's Coming
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