Center of Gravity in Iraq

[Rank amateur]

Call me cynical, but I tend to trust self-interest, group identity and revenge as reliable motivations – more so than protestations of aspirational democracy, anyway.

I interpret that as Mr. Kilcullen saying his impression is that the tribes are more interested in revenge than reconciliation, which is consistent with what Michael Ware of CNN reported yesterday.

Though, I'm sure that if I'm wrong Mr. Kilcullen will give me the mother of all slap downs, which will undoubtedly be highly amusing for all the other council members.

This Washington Post article suggests that we've already chosen sides in the civil war

Military forces are engaged -- America's openly, Iran's clandestinely -- in a battle for influence over the shattered remnants of the Iraqi state. Indeed, now that the United States has co-opted Iraq's Sunnis, the new American priority is to prevent Iranian hegemony over Iraqi Shiites. U.S. officials say they have tried to reassure Iraqis that they won't fight a proxy war against Tehran on Iraqi territory. But that's precisely what has been happening in recent months.