Hi Gian,

Quote Originally Posted by Gian P Gentile View Post
In Iraq today there is much talk of how the recent lowering of violence is allowing American commanders along with the Iraqi government to re-hard-wire the social environment in Iraq thus setting the stage for political reconciliation. However, another way to view Iraq, with Bleeding Kansas providing historical insight, is that since the fundamental political and social problems have not been resolved what we are really doing is hardening the sides in the Iraq Civil War and not softening them; just like Stephen Douglas thought he was doing in 1854.
Good example, and there certainly does seem to be an analog. I'm hesitant about how to extend it to Iraq, however. In the period you are talking about, there are significant demographic and economic differences between the North and the South. Slavery, qua slavery, was more of a hot button, rhetorical and emotional issue than a causus belli, and the real root was in the differences in productive and distributive economic systems (and their products)l a difference between two modes of production to use the Marxist term.

How does this play out in Iraq? Well, there is a rough analog between oil production and the Southern Agrarian economy (the analog shows up in the Lorenz curve but not in the technical production skills of the workers or in the numbers required). This type of economy, a resource export economy, is a tricky one to diversify even when you have quite a few resources that are in demand (look at the Canadian economy as an example). With Iraq mainly operating on oil revenues, what are they going to produce especially given the infrastructural decline over the past 20 odd years?

Then we've got the hot button issues; not slavery but "religion" / ethnicity / tribalism. These issues will tend to be exacerbated as long as you are dealing with a resource export economy, at least in the sense of there will be a continuing fight over access to and division of the economic pie. Without an alternate economic structure that can produce and distribute goods and services, and generate significant revenue, you don't have much backing for alternate social structures. Again, this is a significant difference with the case you are pointing to.

This very difference might point to one, potential, way out of the "hardening the sides" model. Since you don't really have a major conflict between economic systems, a revenue sharing model that was generally agreed to even if it is not generally agreeable may be enough to create a breathing space for multiple new economic systems to develop. If this is tied in with either a centralized development plan, such as Dubai or Brunei have used (as, BTW, did Canada and Japan), then that could reinforce the central government, at least in the short term (speaking as an Anthropologist, so 15-30 years ).