NATO in Afghanistan till 2015 (merged thread)

[SWJED]

18 October Globe and Mail - NATO Faces ‘Window of Opportunity' by Paul Koring.

Military successes over the Taliban in recent months have opened a crucial six-month “window of opportunity” to prove to Afghans in the south that long-promised reconstruction and security can be delivered, NATO's commander in Afghanistan said Tuesday.

However, British Lieutenant-General David Richards warned that “if we fail to deliver on the promises that they [the Afghan people] feel have been made to them,” the Taliban will be back in strength next summer. “If you do not have the consent of the people in a counterinsurgency, at the end of the day, you're probably going to lose. So we need to explore these ways to get the people onside.”

The U.S.-led coalition in Afghanistan failed to follow through as it should have after ousting the Taliban government in 2001, setting the stage for this year's deadly resurgence, he said. The mistake consisted of adopting “a peacetime approach” too early.

Gen. Richards stressed the urgent need for reconstruction, the development of a reliable and honest police force and alternatives to the poppy production that supports southern Afghanistan's economy.

Gen. Richards stressed the urgent need for reconstruction, the development of a reliable and honest police force and alternatives to the poppy production that supports southern Afghanistan's economy.

“At some point the military can do no more, because we don't offer solutions to all the other complex issues that are confronting the country. We are just part of the solution,” he said...

[Jedburgh]

...a decidedly pessimistic point-of-view from Michael Scheuer at the Jamestown Foundation:

The West is Running Out of Time in Afghanistan

...The old adage that familiarity breeds contempt is no place on earth truer than in Afghanistan, and there it additionally always breeds armed resistance. In the Afghans' view, the U.S.-led coalition has occupied Afghanistan for five-plus years, has failed to deliver a more prosperous and safer society, has killed a large number of Afghan civilians and shows no sign of planning a near-term departure. Always short of patience in regard to foreigners running their affairs, most Afghans probably would concur with Taliban spokesman Mutamen's statement that "the people of Afghanistan...never accept foreign dominance...America has attacked Afghanistan without any reasonable plan or suggestions. The Americans, therefore, get nothing but the death of their soldiers in Afghanistan. We want NATO and other foreign troops to leave Afghanistan as soon as possible" (Afghan Islamic Press, October 7). Ominously, another Taliban leader, Mullah Mehmood Allah Haq Yar, claims that not only has the Pashtun-dominated Taliban's patience run out, but that the forces of the late Ahmed Shah Masood—heretofore backing Karzai—are beginning to decide that they did not defeat and evict Moscow only to be ruled by the West. In late spring 2005, Yar claims to have talked with Northern Alliance representatives who "condemned the foreign presence in the country, but insisted that the Taliban take the lead [in attacking it] and then they would follow suit." Yar claims that the Taliban's contacts with the Alliance commanders are continuing (Asia Times, October 5).

Overall, the increasing pace of the Taliban-led insurgency in Afghanistan suggests it is only a matter of time until the commanders of the U.S.-led coalition are faced with telling their political leaders that a decision must be made to either heavily reinforce coalition forces—it appears that more than the 120,000 men Moscow deployed to Afghanistan in the 1980s would be necessary—or begin preparations to withdraw from the country. If taken now, such a decision would be made in the context of polls showing popular opinion in Canada and Britain turning decidedly against continued participation in the Afghan war and media reports that France may begin to withdraw its special forces from Afghanistan next spring (Associated Press, October 15).

[Jedburgh]

ICG, 2 Nov 06: Countering Afghanistan’s Insurgency: No Quick Fixes

...The desire for a quick, cheap war followed by a quick, cheap peace is what has brought Afghanistan to the present, increasingly dangerous situation. It has to be recognised that the armed conflict will last many years but the population needs to be reassured now that there is a clear political goal of an inclusive state. Actions to fight the insurgency must be based on and enforce the rule of law with priority given to the reform of the police and judiciary. Short-term measures such as reliance on ill-trained and poorly disciplined militias, harsh, ad hoc anti-terrorism legislation and discredited power brokers from past eras will only undermine the long-term goal of building sustainable institutions. Political strategy talk seems to focus increasingly on making a deal with the Taliban. That is a bad idea. The key to restoring peace and stability to Afghanistan is not making concessions to the violent extremists but meeting the legitimate grievances of the population – who for the most part have eagerly supported democratisation...

[CaptCav_CoVan]

Interesting piece on Afghanistan from The Asia Foundation:

Afghanistan in 2006: A Survey of the Afghan People

November 13, 5:01 pm

The Asia Foundation has just released Afghanistan in 2006: a Survey of the Afghan People, one the most comprehensive surveys of Afghan public opinion. Questions ranging from government performance to security and reconstruction progress were asked of 6226 respondents throughout the country. The Asia Foundation does note, however, that due to security concerns they were unable to conduct the survey in Zabul and Uruzgan provinces.
The 128-page report contains both good and bad news. First the good, 44 percent of Afghan's believe the country is on the right path and have an optimistic view of the future. The bad news is that this number is significantly smaller than The Asia Foundation's 2004 survey (PDF) in which 64 percent felt the country was heading in the right direction.
Strangely, security is not the number one reason cited by Afghans as shaping their opinion on the country's direction. A bad economy, the lack of reconstruction progress, poor government performance and unemployment all trump security as major concerns.

Below are some of the key findings (PDF) that we think are especially interesting:

• The national mood was found to be positive on the whole, with 44 percent of Afghans saying the country is headed in the right direction. While 21 percent felt it is headed in the wrong direction, 29 percent had mixed feelings and four percent were unsure.
• Good security was cited as a reason for the country going in the right direction. For people who were disappointed with the direction, however, lack of security was not seen as one of the major reasons.
• Though 80 percent felt poppy cultivation was wrong, they cited economic reasons for continued cultivation, and few made any linkage of poppy cultivation to terrorism, insecurity, or greater corruption.
• An overwhelming majority (86%) of Afghans surveyed said they agreed to the principle of 'equal rights regardless of gender, ethnicity, and religion.'
• A significant majority of survey respondents were in favor of women's rights to education and work.
• Almost half of the respondents felt that men and women should have equal representation in political leadership.
• For reporting a crime, 63 percent of the survey respondents went to the police, while for resolving problems the preference was to go to elders of the local shura (44%), followed by the police (37%). While 61 percent felt religious leaders should be consulted on problems, most reported having resolved problems through local elders. [Full Article, PDF]

One of the best aspects of this survey is that it includes a description of the methodology as well as a copy of the questionnaire used. Don't have time to read a 128-page report? Turn to page 90 and you can quickly see what questions were asked, how they were asked and the exact percentages for each answer. Take a look, the Afghan perspective provided in this survey is well worth your time.