NATO in Afghanistan till 2015 (merged thread)

[DGreen]

I'm not ignoring the rest of the country at all. I'm focused on trying to fix a particular problem in the south. That is where most of NATO's forces are fighting right now. I'm quite aware that we need a national counter-insurgency strategy for Afghanistan that is well resourced and comprehensive.

[davidbfpo]

1. Buy the heroin crop
2. Build tarmac'd roads - using local labour
3. Pay the Afghan Army (ANA) & Afghan Police (ANP) on time
4. Pay the ANA & ANP if necessary direct and 50% to family if not living local
5. Forget about new NATO or other forces arriving
6. Expect the Canadians and Dutch to leave in 2009

davidbfpo

[kehenry1]

Actually, skip buying the poppy crop and start buying other crops at higher rates. They need competing markets for space and fertile land, not a re-enforcement of bad behavior that, if I read the reports correctly, result in an inability to provide food for their internal needs, much less external markets.

In fact, the government could constitute a "grain reserve" program by building up effective storage areas in the districts and building capacity that would stabilize the price of wheat and other necessary food stuffs, provide a stable, comparative income and facilitate government control and good will as a provider to the people as opposed to USAID or other outside sources. Not to mention, stave off the possibility of starving millions of Afghanis.

Of course, that would require building up the irrigation and road systems, along with grain storage, much faster than is happening now. I keep thinking about the seabees of WWII and how fast they could throw up a base or air port or road and wonder at how long it takes us today.

Tie that in with local governance and tribal allegiances as a coop with some sort of plan for security from the tribes,makes their survivability and relationship with their own and the government a little more imperative.

There is a double edged sword to providing food aid to people who are more interested in growing poppies than in growing food. Money cannot buy what is not available and the income simply means imports are more expensive.

I think the tribal elders would gain back some additional control from the Islamists if they had a sustained capacity for providing for their people. We're not talking necessarily western standards, but the basics with the potential for additional development.

Of course, there is the issue of what agricultural basins exist, what crops they suited for and whether anyone could compete with the poppy trade. And the issue of protected government insiders and parliamentarians who traffic in it without any retribution from state for fear of "pashtunwali". there has to be an effective deterence AND replacement system. We're just to afraid to do it or push for it (so is the Afghan government) since we fear the rear guard action in the middle of trying to fight of the Taliban.

Still, start small enough. There has got to be some concept of self sufficiency built into the program or they will never leave the poppies.

[Ron Humphrey]

Actually, skip buying the poppy crop and start buying other crops at higher rates. They need competing markets for space and fertile land, not a re-enforcement of bad behavior that, if I read the reports correctly, result in an inability to provide food for their internal needs, much less external markets.

I think the assertion that they will not give it up until there is not only a viable but a much more attractive alternative is probably widely accepted. Doesn't that fact in and of itself speak to the possible necessity of outbidding the current clientel for the product and creating a dependancy on the governmental structure for sustained purchase and approval for what is grown. Once this is done it drys up much of the extra funding the Taliban and AQ are able to subvert from this trade and would make them have to seek alternative forms or other locals within which to work it.

It also places the Govt in a positin to give the growers a directive a little further on which products to grow and over time to transition to a more supply and demand both internally and internationally in a different competetive market. This is would seem counter intuitive to US thought but for a country in which the market is as it is , the only way to trasition it to a more free market reflective agriculture base may be to first bring it into the government owned type but all the while watching for opportunity to push it back out into the private sector with a different focus.

It makes me uncomfortable to consider it such as state owned anything so often tends to lead into marxist, leninist type societies but as with anything what the goal is and what it will take to get it there has to be considered.

Thought's