Hizbullah / Hezbollah (just the group)

[Jedburgh]

Wow, that Canergie Endowment for International Peace "piece" was written by Amal Saad-Ghorayeb, "an assistant professor at the Lebanese American University in Beirut. She writes regularly on Lebanese politics and is the author of Hizbullah: Politics and Religion." Just call me a sucker for propaganda.

Have you read the book? Well written and insightful, it is one of the better books on Hezballah; it is certainly not "propaganda". The two short pieces she wrote for CEIP provide a good perspective from Lebanon; although gloomy in their analysis, they are not exactly written in a pro-Hezballah slant. If you want to read real pro-Hizballah propaganda, take a look at Hizbullah: The Story from Within, by Naim Qassim, one of the top tier of Hezballah's leadership. The book is still worth a read for the perspective, but you have to recognize it for what it is.

Now, all this talk about Hizbollah rebuilding southern Lebanon is sort of moot with all those Israeli soldiers sleeping in what were once Hizbollah foxholes. What a bunch of crap.

Hezballah has a long history of rebuilding homes and more after major Israeli attacks. Operation Grapes of Wrath has been discussed as an example in another thread. They certainly won't be able to do it in the areas still under IDF control, but you can bet the funds are already flowing and plans are being drawn up.

That also makes things a little difficult for Reuters to stage photographs and pundits to now come up with more lies about how great Hizbollah is for being dumb enough to start this battle to begin with getting Lebanon wrecked. Not only did Hizbollah not win this short engagement they also lost it.

Can you reference any major media organization stating "how great Hizbollah is" for starting this conflict? Thus far, there seems to be unusual unanimity that Hezballah made a huge mistake in their calculations about the kidnapping that initiated this mess. However, Israel also made a tremendous strategic error in this case, as well as numerous operational mistakes, and they damn sure didn't "win" anything. But neither did Hezballah "lose". There is also unusual unanimity regarding the significant boost in stature that Hezballah has gained by simply standing their ground - despite their losses. To disregard the tremendous effect that is rippling throughout the region because of this is unwise.

Also, I don't think the world would miss the current Lebanese government if it was to crumble under the weight of its own hypocrisy. You can't have your cake and eat it too as as the old saying goes.

Blaming the victim. The Lebanese government was weak before this ball started rolling. The US and the West had a great opportunity to positively engage Lebanon after the Cedar Revolution when Syria was forced to withdraw in disgrace. It would have been perfect timing for a massive infusion of economic aid and military assistance specifically aimed at weakening Hezballah at a moment of vulnerability. But we were too focused on other targets, despite the administration's vaunted vision for the region, and only proffered token aid amid loud statements of success. Prior to this fiasco, Lebanon was in the middle of great economic growth and political opening that could have been greatly facilitated for a tremendous positive effect in the Levant. That moment is gone forever, and now Hezballah is in a position of strength. To achieve the same goals now will take a much greater effort, and the Lebanese government is going to be far less cooperative.

It took over 25 rockets to kill one Israeli citizen. It took one Israeli forward observer or one Israeli air strike to kill an entire platoon of the world's greatest guerrilla force. The bad guys get together a three man team and run out and kill a tank. Suddenly, Israel is losing? How many tanks and crews has Israel lost since 1948? Three? Four?

You are making the common errors of using body counts to make judgments of effect and mirror imaging ideas of conventional warfare onto a completely different type of conflict. The effect of Hizballah's rockets is purely psychological and has nothing to do with numbers of Israelis killed or wounded. Go back over the past decade's reporting in the Israeli media of rocket attacks in northern Israel and you'll see what I mean. The same thing goes when a Merkava is destroyed - a single tank destroyed by Hezballah has a far greater psychological impact upon the IDF and the people at home than did a dozen tanks destroyed in the Sinai in '73. Israel did not lose this fracas militarily; it lost it at the strategic geo-political level.

Some people seem to think we're up against the same type of endlessly funded insurgencies and guerrillas from the late great Soviet Union era. In case anyone hasn't noticed but the Soviet Union is gone. All their little victories during the Cold War are dying on the vine. That would include Syria and Iran.

No one with any sense mirror images today's conflicts with the brush fires of the Cold War. Although, to reverse that, there is a risk in summarily dismissing that era, because there are still significant lessons gained from those brush fires that we disregard at our peril. As you point out, however, funding is an issue that has changed tremendously. But today's terror and insurgent threats seem to have no problem in arming and equipping themselves. Rather than go into sources in detail here, I will simply recommend another RAND product: Trends in Outside Support for Insurgent Movements

By the way, Iran was not a Soviet victory. The Shah was a proxy of the U.S., and the Islamic Revolution was nearly as virulently anti-Soviet as it was anti-U.S. (they lumped us together as imperialists, and even burned our flags together).