Hizbullah / Hezbollah (just the group)

[Bill Moore]

1. Hezbollah lost several foot soldiers in the conflict. Are they effectively able to recruit replacements? There is a big difference between supporters waving Hezbollah flags and volunteering to fight. If their recruiting trend is improving that would be an area of concern.

2. What is the trend of public support for Hezbollah? Understandably there was mass support for Hezbollah during the recent spat between Israel and Lebanon, since Hezbollah was the only effective force countering "perceived" Israeli aggression; however, now that the dust has settled is the Lebonese public reconsidering their position on the Hezbollah?

If anyone can provide answers to these questions it would be most appreciated.

[Tom Odom]

Bill,

I can provide experienced-based SWAGs:

a. Recruitment will not be a problem among the young Shia in Lebanon. Hiszballah's "victory" may be perceptions-based but that constitutes reality in this matter.

b. Larger support for Hizballah will be greater at least for the near term. Hizballah damage payments to locals and earlier civic minded efforts all work in the organization's favor.

The central questiuon will be how Hizballah, the Lebanese government and the Lebanese Army, and the Israelis react to the expanded UNIFIL, one with a much more aggressive mandate and larger troop list.

Frankly, Zur's comments are somewhat obfuscatory; Hizballah's record against the IDF was not a state secret hidden from IDF leaders. And the open press--especially Poole's book on their tactics--had very accurate portrayals of what could be expected, especially the use of caves and caches.

Best

Tom

[CPT Holzbach]

Hezbollah laid ambushes throughout southern Lebanon's hilly terrain, hitting Israel's tanks with some of the world's most advanced anti-tank missiles...Israel's military has asked the government for $2.5 billion to purchase a system capable of detecting and tracking anti-tank missiles and countering them with a launched projectile.

OF COURSE that's what they want to do. They would get better results faster if they just practice their defile drills. Accept the idea that tanks must have significant infantry support in broken, complex terrain (hills, mountains, cities). The tanks by themselves won't be enough. The IDF loves it's flashy, 3rd gen, manuever warfare, but in complex terrain, it's slow going; no faster than the slowest fat ass in the accompanying infantry. The IDF should send units to train with the US forces in Korea. Defile drills are the name of the game in the mech forces there. And it would cost less than $2.5 billion.